Kannon closed his card with Nick Taylor at 90-1, emphasizing that Taylor has already won at two of the strongest correlated comps—Pebble Beach (2020) and the Sony Open earlier this season. Before a missed cut at the Open, Taylor rattled off finishes of 4-13-23-17-22. His strengths mirror Southwind demands: accuracy off the tee, Greens-in-Regulation prowess, effectiveness on 450-500-yard par-4s, and a tidy short game. Kannon views Taylor as a sneaky outright and top-20 bet, calling the Canadian one of the best statistical fits in the triple-digit range.

Brady Kannon tabbed J.J. Spaun at 50-1, reminding readers that his breakout season began with a third at the Sony Open. Spaun rates as a premier ball striker who keeps it in play and scrambles efficiently. Over the past 24 rounds he ranks 20th on 450-500-yard par-4s and 21st in Strokes Gained Putting on fast Bermuda—two of Kannon’s heaviest weightings for Southwind. The statistical blend combined with confidence gained throughout 2025 pushes Spaun onto Kannon’s outright card and into DFS player pools.

Kannon pegged Maverick McNealy at 50-1 as a live outright. McNealy grabbed his first PGA Tour win at last year’s RSM Classic and has since piled up four top-5 finishes while making the cut in every major of 2025. He owns elite course-comp results: Pebble Beach contention, Sony success, a seventh at Hamilton, and a 12th at Southwind in 2024. That history plus steady form leads Kannon to project McNealy’s well-rounded game—accurate tee ball, solid scrambling, above-average Bermuda putting—to thrive in the no-cut playoff opener.

Brady Kannon endorsed Harris English at 45-1, citing a season that already includes a Torrey Pines win and two runner-ups to Scottie Scheffler at the PGA and Open Championships. English combines length with fairway accuracy and a "magic" short game, ingredients Kannon prizes at water-guarded TPC Southwind. Course-correlated resume pop: four top-10s at Sony, two at Valspar, one at RSM—all Bermuda, accuracy-centric setups. English is clinging to the sixth automatic U.S. Ryder Cup spot, giving him added motivation. Kannon expects another strong showing and sees plus value in outright and placement markets.

Brady Kannon recommended betting Matt Fitzpatrick at 28-1, pointing to a scorching run that includes four straight top-10s and five in his last eight starts. Fitzpatrick owns past top-five finishes both at TPC Southwind and the Valspar as well as a sixth at Pebble Beach, all layouts Kannon views as strong course comps. Over his last 24 measured rounds, Fitzpatrick sits 12th in this field for Greens-in-Regulation Gained, 13th in Good Drives Gained, 14th in Scrambling, and 11th on the key 450-500-yard par-4s—exactly the profile Kannon wants on a narrow, water-laden par-70 with tiny Bermudagrass targets. Sitting 12th in the European Ryder Cup standings adds urgency, and Kannon believes the complete statistical package makes Fitzpatrick a live outright play.

Kannon highlighted Ben Griffin at 40-1, noting that the ball-striking and scrambling numbers have been "dialed in" for three months. Griffin shook off back-to-back missed cuts (John Deere, Open) by finishing 11th at Wyndham and earlier posted a runner-up at Hamilton in the Canadian Open, plus consistent success at Sony (never missed a cut) and Sea Island (top-10). Those venues share Southwind’s emphasis on accuracy and Bermuda putting. With form re-established and the statistical blend of Good Drives and Scrambling matching Kannon’s model, he labeled Griffin a value outright and top-10 ticket.

Ben Coley allocated 1 point each-way to Justin Rose at 80/1, calling the Englishman “massively overpriced” given his track record in elite company. Rose sits 25th in the FedEx Cup and has posted four top-10s this year—all in strong fields—plus a T16 at last month’s Open. Southwind form is quietly rock-solid: 11th when it was a WGC, then 20th and 22nd in the last two FedEx renewals, highlighted by a third-round 61 and a combined −19 across the overlapping final two rounds of 2023 and first two rounds of 2024. Coley concedes Rose’s bad weeks are ugly but views that volatility as perfect for an 80/1 each-way ticket, especially with Ryder Cup motivation and a statistical profile (still elite iron play when he’s ‘on’) that fits a course demanding precision over raw power.

Coley backed Collin Morikawa for 2 points each-way at 33/1, arguing the price drift is an overreaction to two links-course missed cuts. Prior to Scotland and Portrush, Morikawa was eighth on his last US start while ranking 3rd in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and he led that same metric at the US Open. Southwind has always suited his precision: five career visits have produced no finish worse than 26th and a best of 5th in 2022, when he arrived off two Scottish missed cuts—an almost identical lead-in. Coley notes Morikawa has historically putted well here, a welcome antidote to his periodic “putting funks,” and may feel extra motivation with Ryder Cup places on the line. Having been 14-20/1 all season in stronger fields, 33/1 in a 69-man playoff event without Rory McIlroy is, in Coley’s view, “a massive price.”

Ben Coley staked 2 points each-way on Viktor Hovland at 33/1, pointing to a near-perfect course fit and encouraging recent form. Hovland calls TPC Southwind “a genius golf course” and his results back that up: 59th on debut in 2020 when his short game was a liability, then 36th, 20th, 13th and runner-up last year, shooting 15-under for the final 54 holes. Coley highlighted that last year’s slow start came while Hovland’s game was struggling—he’d missed both summer-major cuts—whereas this time he rolls in off 3rd at the US Open, 11th in Scotland and an earlier win at the Valspar, a comp course featuring tight fairways, penal rough and abundant water. Stat-wise, Hovland has been gaining heavily with his irons for months and drove the ball “beautifully” here in 2024. Given Southwind’s clear bias toward elite ball-strikers, Coley labels Hovland the main threat to Scottie Scheffler and an outstanding each-way play at 33/1.

Ben Coley advised a 3-point each-way bet on Ludvig Aberg at 28/1, arguing that Southwind’s demand for pure ball-striking is tailor-made for the Swede. Aberg was 10th in strokes-gained off-the-tee here last year and slightly positive with his approaches despite a disastrous week around the greens, showing the long-game foundation Southwind rewards. Since 1 June his iron play has flipped from losing roughly 0.5 strokes per round to gaining 0.76, pushing his overall tee-to-green gain above +2 per round—an eight-shot improvement over 72 holes. Coley compared Aberg’s trajectory to Will Zalatoris, noting parallel flashes (nearly winning the Masters on debut, excelling at Torrey Pines where Aberg captured this year’s Genesis). While Aberg’s chipping and streaky putting remain concerns, Coley believes the recent surge in long-game form coupled with Southwind’s status as “arguably the number-one tee-to-green course on Tour” makes 28/1 generous value.

Baz Plummer played Chris Kirk at +500 for a top-10, risking two units. Kirk, a six-time PGA Tour winner, has strung together elite finishes: 5th at last week’s Wyndham, T14 at the 3M Open, a playoff loss at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and T12 at June’s U.S. Open. With the playoff event featuring a reduced field, Baz believes Kirk’s current form makes him undervalued to snag another leaderboard finish.

In addition to his outright ticket, Baz Plummer backed Sepp Straka for a top-10 finish at +275 with two units. The same case applies—two 2025 victories, top-10 strokes-gained rankings at the course, and a runner-up finish at Southwind three seasons ago—but the extra stake reflects Baz's confidence Straka at least contends even if he does not win.

Baz Plummer staked one unit on Sepp Straka to win at +4500, noting that the Austrian is one of only six players with multiple PGA Tour victories this season. Straka’s most recent win came at May’s Truist Championship, and he has followed it with a 3rd at the Memorial and a 7th at the Genesis Scottish Open. He was runner-up at Southwind in 2022 and ranks 8th in strokes gained total over his last 50 rounds. Baz emphasized Straka’s accuracy off the tee and dialed-in wedge game as perfect fits for TPC Southwind.

Baz Plummer allocated two units on Viktor Hovland at +3000 to win. Hovland captured the Valspar Championship earlier this summer and finished third at the U.S. Open in June, signaling peak form heading into the playoffs. The former FedEx Cup winner is top-10 in strokes gained at TPC Southwind and, like Thomas, excels in the 100-150-yard approach windows that dominate this layout. He finished runner-up in this event last season, giving Baz confidence the Norwegian's ceiling is worth chasing despite occasional volatility.

For deep-odds hunters, Patrick McDonald highlighted 45-year-old Lucas Glover at +9000. Glover captured this tournament in 2023 and hasn’t teed it up at TPC Southwind since that victory, a layout that accentuates his two signature weapons: fairway-finding drives and laser-sharp mid-irons. Before a blip at last week’s Wyndham (missed cut), Glover logged three straight top-25 results, including T9 at the Travelers and T5 at the John Deere Classic—evidence he still flashes winning upside. McDonald stressed that Southwind neutralizes power off the tee, allowing elite ball-strikers like Glover to gain separation. With course comfort, proven winning equity, and a betting number nearly triple digits, McDonald believes Glover offers legitimate long-shot value in outright, top-20, and each-way markets.

Calling him the premier mid-range bet on the board, Patrick McDonald listed Harris English at +4500 as his primary “contender.” English won at TPC Southwind more than a decade ago and returns with palpable confidence after a major-season renaissance that featured two runner-up finishes to Scottie Scheffler. The veteran sits 5th in total strokes gained over the past three months, thanks largely to a leap with his approach play—an area where he had been merely average for years. McDonald added that English’s streaky putter tends to spike on Bermuda greens, the same surface he conquered here previously. With a proven course history, elite recent irons, and a FedEx Cup incentive to stay inside the top-10 heading to Caves Valley, McDonald views English as live to win or at least cash placement bets.

Riley Hamel recommended betting Wyndham Clark at 55/1, citing the player’s recent heater—top-20 finishes in four of his last five PGA Tour starts—and a T-7 result at TPC Southwind in 2024. Clark currently sits 49th in the FedEx Cup standings and needs a strong showing to lock up a BMW Championship berth, a motivational angle Hamel believes will produce aggressive play. With Clark’s hot putter and volatile scoring upside, Hamel thinks bettors should ride the momentum at the generous outright price.

Riley Hamel labeled Daniel Berger an automatic add at 50/1 because of his dominant history at TPC Southwind. Berger won here in 2016 and 2017, missed the cut only once in 2018, and has since finished T-2 in 2020 and T-5 in 2021. Hamel trusts the clear horses-for-courses trend, noting Southwind’s par-70 setup accentuates Berger’s accurate driving and wedge play. He believes the betting market is undervaluing that track record, making 50/1 a value position for outright tickets.

Riley Hamel said Matt Fitzpatrick is a strong outright bet at 22/1 for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Hamel pointed out that since the beginning of May Fitzpatrick has finished inside the top-25 in seven of nine starts and cracked the top-10 five times, including each of his last four tournaments. Course history also tilts in his favor: three top-10s in six career trips to TPC Southwind and a T-18 here in 2024. Hamel likes the combination of red-hot recent form, proven success on the par-70 Southwind layout, and Fitzpatrick’s comfort on Bermuda greens, arguing the number is mis-priced relative to the short odds on Scottie Scheffler.

Wes Reynolds bet Daniel Berger at 50-1 mainly on unrivaled course pedigree: victories here in 2016 and 2017 and four top-five finishes in five career Memphis starts. Statistically Berger is a dream fit, ranking second in Total Driving, ninth in SG: Approach (+0.612), 10th in Fairways Hit (65.49%), sixth in Good Drive Percentage (84.28%) and ninth in Scrambling (62.56%). Although his hot early-season form has cooled, Reynolds thinks the no-cut setup and Ryder Cup motivation could reignite Berger’s spike-week potential on his favorite track.

Wes Reynolds grabbed Sepp Straka at 45-1, citing the Austrian’s fourth-place ranking in SG: Approach (+0.864) and elite wedge proximity—second from 125-150 yards and fourth from 150-175. Straka owns 12 top-15s this season with wins at the American Express and Truist Championship and was a playoff runner-up at Southwind in 2022. He also sits 13th in Good Drive Percentage (83.33%) and fifth in Fairways Hit (66.75%), traits Reynolds sees as crucial with water lurking on 11 holes. Given quadruple FedExCup points and Straka’s proven ability to close at 60-1 earlier this year, Reynolds views 45-1 as mispriced.

Hall is Sobel’s aggressive FRL flyer at +4000. The Englishman just climbed to No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Putting and has broken 70 in 17 of 22 opening rounds this season, including 10 of his last 11, ranking fifth in R1 scoring average. Sobel loves targeting elite putters who ‘go nuclear’ on the greens and says Hall’s attack-from-hole-one mentality makes him the ideal Thursday splash play at a juicy number.

For first-round leader, Sobel likes Justin Thomas at +2800 precisely because his Thursday outcomes swing wildly. The same player who opened the RBC Heritage with a 61 has also carded an 80 at the Memorial and 78 at The Players. Southwind ceiling exists—Thomas has begun this event with 67 in two separate years—and FRL bets prioritize spike rounds over consistency. Sobel embraces the volatility, believing Thomas’ elite iron play can flash early before any putting woes creep in.

Sobel’s aggressive top-20 is Daniel Berger at +125. Berger opened 2025 with ten top-30s in his first twelve starts but has slumped outside the top-30 for seven straight. Southwind is his personal playground—back-to-back victories here in 2016 and 2017—and he enters 30th in FedEx Cup points, needing a good week to secure a Tour Championship berth. Sobel thinks familiar sightlines and positive memories can ignite a form rebound that comfortably lands inside the top-20.

Sobel’s conservative top-20 pick is Jake Knapp at +175. Before a missed cut at Wyndham, Knapp rattled off five straight top-30s, two inside the top-5, powered by a lethal driver-and-putter profile. Sobel likes that the early exit in Greensboro gave Knapp a rare weekend to rest after a packed summer schedule. In a 69-man field, finishing 20th means beating only 71% of entrants, so Sobel sees value despite course fit concerns with Knapp’s irons.

For an aggressive top-10 play at +500, Sobel chose Chris Kirk. Kirk vaulted from 73rd to 61st in FedEx Cup points with a T-5 last week, proving the six-time winner still heats up quickly. Though he finished 16th and 50th here the last two years, he owns four rounds of 67 or better across those eight loops, evidence he can fire low numbers at Southwind when the putter cooperates.

Russell Henley mirrors Fleetwood in Sobel’s eyes—elite iron play, steady floor, and a recent Southwind top-10—so he advocates a separate or parlayed top-10 at +200. Henley’s precise approach game mitigates Southwind’s water-guarded greens, giving him multiple paths to another high finish.

Sobel labeled Tommy Fleetwood a "world-class ball-striker with an unequivocally high floor" and recommended a conservative top-10 at +175. Fleetwood owns a top-10 at Southwind within the last two years and rarely loses strokes tee-to-green, making him a dependable anchor play in a limited 69-man field.

Sobel’s aggressive top-5 stab is Harris English at +650. The 36-year-old has already won the Farmers Insurance Open, finished solo second at both the PGA Championship and The Open, and grabbed T-4 at the Travelers—form that has him on the inside of the Ryder Cup discussion. English won on this exact course in 2013 and Sobel believes those good vibes will offset lackluster results here the past two seasons. Given the six-week heater and proven Southwind pedigree, Sobel sees +650 as value.

For a conservative top-5 ticket, Sobel backed Patrick Cantlay at +500. Cantlay ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 11th in SG: Total this season, gaining on approach in 12 of his last 14 starts. The two poor weeks were both majors, skewing his results and masking elite ball-striking. Southwind suits him: he lost a playoff here two years ago and finished T-12 last year. Sitting 14th in U.S. Ryder Cup points, Cantlay badly needs a statement finish; Sobel expects iron-play regression to the mean and thinks a top-5 cashes at +500.

Sobel’s aggressive outright dart is Cameron Young at +4000. Young snapped a four-year victory drought by winning in Greensboro and Sobel drew a parallel to Lucas Glover’s 2023 Greensboro/Memphis back-to-back, arguing Young owns far more win equity than Glover did. Motivation is high with a potential Ryder Cup berth in his home state of New York on the line, and Young credited renewed chemistry with former Wake Forest teammate–turned-caddie Kyle Sterbinsky for the hot run. Sobel believes Young will keep the gas pedal down while his tee-to-green game is peaking, making +4000 too long.

Jason Sobel said Sam Burns is his conservative outright play at +3300 because TPC Southwind is a 125-175-yard wedge contest where strong putting separates contenders. Burns ranked second in the field in putting here last year, trailing only winner Hideki Matsuyama, and parlayed that to a T-5. Sobel noted Burns’ nickname, “Bermuda Burns,” to emphasize how comfortable he is on these greens. Although Burns has logged three straight finishes outside the top-40 since contending at both the RBC Canadian Open and U.S. Open, Sobel compared the skid to Cameron Young’s pre-Greensboro slump and expects similar bounce-back potential. He called +3300 a fair number in a week where many outright prices feel too short.

David Facey urged punters to consider an each-way flutter on Shane Lowry at 50-1. Lowry arrived at The Open on a heater but failed to recreate his 2019 Portrush magic while operating "in a goldfish bowl" of local scrutiny. Facey expects a bounce-back now that the spotlight has dimmed and believes the Irishman’s proven major pedigree makes the generous 50-1 number too big to ignore.

David Facey recommended backing Sam Burns at 33-1, noting that the American is a proven course horse at TPC Southwind. Burns finished runner-up here four years ago and returned last season with a solo fifth, a pair of results that put him near the top of the strokes-gained charts on this track. Given that pedigree and a price outside the top tier of favorites, Facey said Burns "has to come into the reckoning" for outright wagers and each-way placements.

David Facey highlighted Harris English at 40-1 as a live outright play. English’s runner-up at Portrush matched his PGA Championship silver medal, leading Facey to conclude the veteran has "found an extra gear" in 2025. Crucially, English is a former champion at TPC Southwind and has tacked on two additional top-10 finishes at the venue, giving him one of the tournament’s best course histories. Facey believes that combination of recent form and proven success on the layout makes the 40-1 price "pretty appealing" for outright and each-way tickets.

David Facey said Viktor Hovland is his preferred alternative to the short-priced Scottie Scheffler at this week’s St Jude Championship. Hovland tied for second at TPC Southwind 12 months ago and already proved he can peak in August by winning the 2023 FedEx Cup. Facey pointed to the Norwegian’s ceiling rounds this season—victory at the Valspar Championship and a third-place finish at the US Open—as proof his A-game still travels. With Scheffler just 5-2, Facey views the 25-1 outright quote on Hovland as outstanding value for bettors willing to fade the favorite.

Brad Thomas said he is laying the -165 on Scottie Scheffler to finish inside the top five at TPC Southwind. Thomas pointed to Scheffler's eight top-five results and four wins this season, highlighted by victories at The Open and PGA Championship plus a 4th-place at the Masters and T-7 at the U.S. Open, to show the world No. 1 raises his ceiling when stakes are highest. Course-fit was a second pillar of the call: the St. Jude has rewarded players who gain heavily tee-to-green (Hideki Matsuyama gained 4.6 SG:T2G here last year, Lucas Glover 6.5 the season prior). Scheffler currently leads the entire PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green at 2.28 per round—nearly a full stroke clear of second-place Collin Morikawa. Add in his 4th-place finish at this event a year ago and Thomas sees little reason to fade Scheffler despite the juice, framing the -165 as a fair price for a ball-striker this reliable on a layout that accentuates his biggest edge.

Wes Reynolds played Viktor Hovland at 35-1 because only Scottie Scheffler has gained more strokes on approach in 2025. Hovland finished runner-up at Southwind a year ago and already proved his mettle on similar strategic, tree-lined layouts with a victory at the Valspar Championship earlier this season. He leads the field in proximity from 175-200 yards (16.17 feet gained) and ranks 16th in Total Driving, a vital combo on a course featuring the sixth-narrowest fairways and 11 water-hazard holes. Reynolds argues those ball-striking numbers give Hovland an outsized win equity relative to his price.

Patrick McDonald tabbed Russell Henley as his outright winner at +3000 for the St. Jude Championship. McDonald pointed to Henley’s scorching summer form—four consecutive top-10 finishes, two of them in majors—as proof the Georgian’s game travels anywhere right now. Henley ranks near the top of the field in fairways gained, giving himself constant wedge numbers, and McDonald emphasized that TPC Southwind historically rewards that exact profile. Henley’s putter, traditionally the weak link, has caught fire over the last six weeks, pushing him inside the top 25 in strokes-gained putting during that stretch. With iron precision, a tidy short game, and momentum on the greens, McDonald believes Henley is positioned to grab the opening playoff trophy and a FedEx Cup points windfall at attractive 30-1 odds.

Wes Reynolds advised grabbing Collin Morikawa at 34-1, noting this is the first time all season the two-time major winner has drifted into the mid-30s despite Scottie Scheffler anchoring the field. Morikawa is second in Opportunities Gained over his last 50 rounds (46.7) and tops the PGA Tour in Fairways Hit (71.33%) behind only Aaron Rai. Although he missed the cut at both the Scottish and British Opens, Morikawa was eighth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic immediately beforehand and features fifth-place proximity numbers across key 125-200-yard ranges. With Mark Urbanek on the bag this week and Ryder Cup positioning still on the line, Reynolds believes Southwind’s approach-heavy test is the perfect spot to “buy the dip” on an elite iron player.

Wes Reynolds backed Russell Henley at 30-1, pointing to a razor-sharp tee-to-green game tailor-made for TPC Southwind’s narrow Zoysiagrass corridors. Henley ranks third in Good Drive Percentage (85.79%), sixth in Fairways Hit (66.48%) and shares 13th in SG: Approach (+0.573). He is historically strongest on Bermuda greens and arrives red-hot with top-10s at both the U.S. Open and British Open plus a runner-up at the Travelers and a fifth at the Memorial in his last five starts. Past Memphis form—T7 in 2016 and 2023—reinforces Reynolds’ view that Henley’s accuracy and reliable Bermuda putting give him a high ceiling in this first FedExCup playoff event.

Haslbauer highlighted Emiliano Grillo in Tier 4 as his favorite 80-1+ dart because the Argentine is simultaneously eighth in SG: APP, seventh in SG: T2G, and top-25 in SG: P on Bermuda over the last 12 rounds—making him one of only eight players to clear the tee-to-green AND putting thresholds he deems essential this week. Grillo also ranks top-15 in Opportunities Gained and Proximity 125-200 yards, the key scoring zone at Southwind, and has gained at least 0.5 strokes per round on approach in five of his last six starts. With a no-cut format guaranteeing four rounds for his volatile putter to heat up, Haslbauer believes Grillo carries legitimate top-5 equity and is mis-priced in the 100-1 range for both outright tickets and top-10 props.

Henley grades No. 1 in Haslbauer’s weighted model that blends SG: T2G, SG: APP, weighted Bermuda putting, Fairways Gained, and Scrambling. He is one of only six players to check every box across the 10 highest-correlated stats to success at Southwind, and stands out as the only player in that subset currently top-10 in both SG: P (Firm & Fast Greens) and Double-Bogey Avoidance— critical with 11 holes bringing water into play. Over his past 12 rounds Henley ranks fourth in SG: T2G and first in SG: P on Bermuda, while his tidy driving accuracy (6th in Fairways Gained season-long) mitigates Southwind’s penal rough. Haslbauer expects books to open Henley around 28-1 and calls that a must-bet outright number given the Georgia native’s proven heat tolerance and strong comp-course results at PGA National and Harbour Town.

Haslbauer plans to build his early card around Tommy Fleetwood if books hang anything north of 25-1. Fleetwood is top-3 in Haslbauer’s custom model (behind only Scheffler and Henley) thanks to elite recent form: he sits fifth in SG: T2G over his last 12 rounds, eighth in Fairways Gained, and inside the top-20 in Scrambling Gained and Proximity 150-175 yards— the approach window that accounts for nearly one-third of Southwind iron shots. He owns positive histories at both East Lake and Sawgrass, two of Haslbauer’s primary comp courses featuring the same zoysia/Bermuda mix and water-lined angles. The Englishman’s Bermuda putting spike weeks (gained strokes in five of his last six starts on the surface) give him the ceiling to cash an outright in a no-cut event where four rounds are guaranteed.

John Haslbauer said Viktor Hovland is his favorite outright bet in the Without-Scheffler market because the Norwegian perfectly mirrors the profile of the last five winners at TPC Southwind— shaky off the tee at times but lethal with mid-irons. Hovland ranks top-10 in SG: APP over the last 12 rounds, checks both SG: T2G and SG: P (Bermuda) boxes, and is one of only eight players to grade top-25 in those combined metrics. Course history is elite and trending upward (T59 → T36 → T20 → T13 → solo 2nd in 2024, when he nearly erased Hideki Matsuyama’s eight-shot Sunday lead). Haslbauer noted Southwind plays like a Florida-style target track with firm, fast Bermuda greens and 11 water-guarded holes—conditions Hovland already mastered earlier this year while winning the Valspar at Innisbrook. With many stars limping into the playoffs, Haslbauer expects Hovland’s sharp approach play and proven playoff ceiling (two FedEx Cup wins since 2023) to push him over the top at +1800 or longer.

Paulie advised betting Viktor Hovland to finish Top-20 at +120, arguing that the books are treating him as if he were out of form despite a rock-solid season. Hovland has made the cut in all four majors with three top-30 results, highlighted by a third at the U.S. Open, and already owns a win this year at the Valspar Championship. Statistically, he has gained strokes on approach in every tournament since Kapalua, underscoring elite iron play that suits TPC Southwind’s ball-striking demands. His track record at this event improves annually—59th, 36th, 20th, 13th, and second over the last five seasons—suggesting further upside. Given his trending finishes and spotless approach numbers, Paulie believes a top-20 ticket at +120 is a clear value.

Paulie recommended a Top-20 wager on Matt Fitzpatrick at +110. He noted that TPC Southwind punishes errant shots with thick bermuda rough and numerous water hazards, so sustained tee-to-green excellence is critical. Fitzpatrick fits that profile: he has gained significant strokes both off the tee and on approach in every start since before the Masters and has posted four straight top-eight finishes while failing to finish outside the top 40 in any event over that span. Course history reinforces the play—Fitzpatrick has landed inside the top 20 here in four of the last six editions. Paulie concluded that Fitzpatrick’s current form and proven success on demanding ball-striker tracks make the +110 number undervalued.

Glasscott called Viktor Hovland an intriguing bounce-back bet at +3000. The Norwegian flashed elite form with a Saturday 63 at the Travelers before a neck issue forced a WD, then returned with closing 67-67 for T11 at the Scottish Open. He tied for runner-up at Southwind last year and has improved his finish every season in a five-year run at the course. With the injury discount baked into the odds and a layout that rewards his aggressive ball-striking, Glasscott sees significant upside for outright and DFS exposure.

Glasscott advised against backing Collin Morikawa at +3000. The two-time major champion is on his third caddie of 2025 and arrives off back-to-back missed cuts in Scotland and at Portrush. While he owns 17 of 20 rounds at par or better at Southwind and finished solo fifth here in 2022, Morikawa has not won on TOUR since fall 2023, and the instability on the bag plus a cold putter leave Glasscott questioning his ceiling relative to equally priced peers.

Glasscott labeled Russell Henley a value play at +3000 in finish markets. The Arnold Palmer Invitational winner arrives with four straight top-10s, including a Saturday 61 en route to T2 at the Travelers and T10 finishes in both summer majors. Henley’s nine top-10s trail only Scheffler’s 13, and he already owns two top-seven checks in seven Memphis starts. Growing up on Bermudagrass and boasting elite iron play and scrambling, Henley is positioned to parlay scorching form into another top-10—if not a podium—with quadruple FedExCup points on offer.

Glasscott recommended Tommy Fleetwood at +2500 for top-5 and outright tickets. Fleetwood’s precise tee-to-green game fits TPC Southwind, which ranks among the TOUR’s toughest fairways to hit. He owns solo 3rd (2023) and solo 4th (2019) results here and recently posted T34 in Scotland and T16 at Royal Portrush after nearly winning the Travelers. With form intact and a strategic layout that accentuates his ball striking, Glasscott expects another serious run at a long-overdue PGA TOUR victory.