John Lanfranca is taking Quang Le at +120 over Gaston Bolanos because the Peruvian striker’s 43 % takedown defense has allowed eight takedowns and 14 minutes of control time across just three UFC appearances. Lanfranca highlighted that even grappling-limited Brontaeus Romans twice took Bolanos’s back and threatened an armbar. He sees the striking as relatively even but expects Le’s heavier top pressure to bank at least two rounds and sway the judges. In what he calls a true coin-flip, Lanfranca prefers the dog with the clearer path to control and positional dominance.

Billy Ward played Gaston Bolanos by knockout at +300, emphasizing that the former Muay Thai world champion’s only realistic avenue to victory over grappling-oriented Kevin ‘Kwon’ Lee is an early striking stoppage. Ward admitted Bolanos has ‘no grappling defense whatsoever’ but framed the fight as extremely binary: Lee dominates if he lands takedowns, Bolanos wins if the bout stays upright. Because Lee was knocked down and battered by low-level striker Zhao Long and has looked uncomfortable on the feet throughout his brief UFC tenure, Ward likes the 3-to-1 price on Bolanos’ KO upside. He even suggested parlaying Bolanos KO with Lee’s moneyline for plus-money exposure to both primary outcomes.

Kyle Anthony recommended laying the short –142 on Gaston Bolanos after the market steamed Quang Le from +180 down to +120. Anthony said bettors are assuming Le can wrestle, but the tape shows otherwise—Le went 0-for-most of his shots against Chris Gutierrez and attempted only two takedowns versus Zhao Long. Even worse, Le abandons wrestling for long stretches despite needing it. Anthony noted Le owns a negative striking differential through two UFC outings and was just knocked out by the much less dangerous Zhao Long. Bolanos, meanwhile, is a seasoned Muay Thai striker with real knockout power, a wider array of stand-up weapons, and newly polished defensive grappling. Anthony pointed to Bolanos’ improved get-up game and greater physical strength as reasons Le’s takedowns—if they come at all—will not stick. Expecting the fight to stay largely on the feet where Bolanos is the far cleaner and heavier hitter, Anthony believes the current –142 number is a discount compared to the –220 opener and is still playable before further buy-back arrives.

Rabbi Mort labeled Quang Bang Lee a clear "dog or pass" play at +115, citing massive grappling upside. He believes Lee can compete on the feet as long as he checks low kicks, but the real edge is wrestling—Bolanos has been “cooked” on the mat, submitted twice, and face-planted by Marcus McGhee. Mort pointed out Bolanos’ chin issues (KO loss to McGhee, knockdown versus Roimas) and poor defensive grappling. He suggested sprinkling Lee by decision (+300) or the richer submission prop (+750) and even mentioned a sub/decision double-chance ticket to capture both likely paths.

Jim Malaro wants to fade Gaston Bolanos and will pick Qiuang Li. Bolanos is still basically a pure kickboxer who has been taken down repeatedly and makes poor defensive decisions once grounded. Malaro thinks that deficiency eventually bites him against an opponent that can mix in full MMA and sees Li as that fighter—even if Li’s overall level of competition is low. While he will not bet the bout himself, Malaro’s advice for pick-em pools is to side with Li because Bolanos has likely already hit his ceiling.

The Weasle recommended Gaston Bolanos by decision, noting this will be a slow-paced, point-fighting affair. Bolanos brings nasty calf kicks, sharp elbows, and an unpredictable, choppy rhythm that routinely freezes opponents. Quang Lee is the cleaner technician, but The Weasle argued Lee gets complacent and allows long stretches without offense. Over three rounds Bolanos’ volume and low-kick scoring should sway the judges. Betting angles: Bolanos money-line plus fight-goes-distance, or Bolanos by decision at plus money.

A second DFS Army voice countered by siding with Gaston Balanos ($8,500, ‑140). He highlighted Li’s porous striking defense—6.2 significant strikes absorbed per minute in Round 1 and 6.5 in Round 3—plus the fact Li’s wrestling disappears late (zero takedowns landed and only seconds of control in his two UFC third rounds). Balanos throws the higher stand-up volume in every frame and should be the noticeably faster, cleaner striker. Given Li’s tendency to crater defensively as the fight wears on, the tout projects Balanos to pile up significant-strike points en route to a decision or late-round finish that meets salary-based expectations. He will have limited Li exposure but plans to be overweight on Balanos in mid-range DFS builds.

Andy Lang countered that Gaston Bolanos is the better side because Li’s takedown defense is "rudimentary at best." Lang said Road to UFC prospects who don’t arrive on wrestling credentials generally struggle once placed on their back, and he expects Bolanos to exploit that by mixing his usual striking with top-time heavy grappling. He cited Bolanos’ control numbers versus opponent Ramius earlier in the year and believes the bout could devolve into Bolanos laying on Li for long stretches. Lang leans Bolanos moneyline, though he admitted the price must be right and likely will not be an official bet.

Monk sided with Gaston Bolanos as a tournament-only flier at $8.5k, pointing to Li’s porous striking defense and fading wrestling. Li is absorbing 6.2 significant strikes per minute in Round 1, 4.2 in Round 2 and an ugly 6.5 in the limited Round-3 sample, yet has landed exactly zero takedowns and just seconds of control in third frames. Monk noted that Bolanos has already shown he can battle through a grapple-heavy script—he was taken down 4-of-6 times by Cortavius Romious, still reversed position twice, logged two of his own takedowns, and out-struck Romious en route to a comeback win. The tout admits “zero confidence” and will not touch Bolanos in cash, but expects him to out-pace Li on the feet and hold his own in scrambles often enough to beat both Li and the field’s modest ownership in large-field GPPs.

Paul Shaughnessy reiterated that Gaston Bolanos is his side and explained how he is attacking the market. Paul snagged Bolanos-by-KO at +300 on open and still likes the current +250 because he expects a largely standing bout. He pointed out that Quang Le’s only credited UFC takedowns came from catching Chris Gutierrez’s kicks—not from real wrestling entries—and noted that Bolanos popped back up versus Cordavius Romious and even hit his own takedown, proof the AKA reps are paying off. On the feet Bolanos owns the clear edge: faster combinations, heavier kicks, and a Muay Thai pedigree Paul has followed since Lion Fight 16 in 2014. Bolanos is two years younger, carries better cardio, and the Des Moines crowd should favor his exciting style. Paul prefers the –140 money-line for parlays, but the upside lives in the KO prop because if this turns into a 15-minute kickboxing match "give me Gaston all day."

Cody Saftic likes Gaston Bolanos at the modest –140 price, arguing his move to AKA has shored up the one hole—takedown defense—that previously doomed him. Bolanos, a decorated Muay Thai stylist with notorious spinning back elbows, has started hitting his own takedowns and sweeping from bottom, as shown against Cordavious Romious. In contrast, Quang Le is a low-volume kickboxer whose regional resume features split decisions and few decisive wins; even in his best UFC effort he relied on opportunistic takedowns against Chris Gutierrez, a fighter everybody takes down. Cody doubts Le can replicate that success here and sees him getting lit up on the feet by Bolanos’ faster combinations and harder kicks. Play the money-line, sprinkle KO props if they creep north of +250, and fade any narrative that Le’s grappling edge still exists now that Bolanos spends every camp wrestling with DC’s crew in San Jose.

Kunath sided with underdog Quang Le to notch his inaugural UFC victory inside the distance. While Bolanos is the cleaner technician from years of Muay Thai, his shell-up defense allowed Marcus McGhee to hook around the guard at will and repeatedly rock him. Kunath anticipates the same openings against Le, who throws harder, lands harder, and has the option to mix in takedowns if desired—giving him multiple win conditions. Expect Le to loop power shots around Bolanos’ high guard, hurt him early, and finish with follow-up strikes or ground-and-pound. Bettors should target Le ITD or KO at plus money, and DFS players get low-owned underdog finish equity perfect for large-field tournaments.

MMA Guru predicted Gaston Bolaños will finish Quang Le in the 2nd or 3rd round. He dismissed the Road-to-UFC talent pool as generally sub-par and reminded listeners that Le was dominated by Chris Gutierrez and even lost on DWCS. Guru praised Bolaños’ heavy hips and ability to reverse takedowns, plus his damage-first striking style that scores well with judges. Though a bit slower than Le, Bolaños is far tougher and showed flashes against surging prospect Marcus McGhee. Given Bolaños’ superior durability, stronger clinch work, and finishing power, Guru sees clear betting value on Bolaños at near-even odds, especially on the TKO prop.

Bedtime MMA backed Gaston Bolanos by decision over Li Qiang, citing recency and strength of schedule. Bolanos is coming off a solid UFC victory and his lone recent loss came to rising prospect Marcus McGhee, whereas Li Qiang was “clearly beat” by Chris Gutierrez— a fighter the tout does not rank highly. Because Bolanos is the more dangerous and well-rounded striker with actual UFC seasoning, he expects the Peruvian to notch another scorecard win.

Daniel Gumby Vreeland sided with Quang “Bang” Le as a small +125 underdog, arguing the Vietnamese prospect owns multiple grappling edges Bolanos cannot match. Gumby pointed out Le shot Chris Gutierrez on five-days’ notice and still landed more takedowns than John Castaneda managed last weekend, a feather in Le’s cap because Gutierrez owns a 73 % career TDD rate. By contrast, Bolanos surrendered four takedowns and over six minutes of top control to Cortavius Romious in a fight he still barely won, exposing a 33 % TDD that has plagued him since Bellator. Vreeland added that Bolanos is the shorter, stockier striker and therefore easier for Le to level-change on, while Le’s LFA résumé includes a head-kick KO that proves he can hold his own on the feet if necessary. With Le offering knockout power plus a clear path on the mat, Gumby recommended the money-line dog and a sprinkle on submission props.