Just A Bet Outside pounded the table for Luis Ortiz UNDER 17.5 outs recorded at ‑125. He reminded viewers that Ortiz has failed to clear this number in six of nine road starts and even the three ‘overs’ landed exactly on 18 outs, so his ceiling for length is razor-thin. On the road Ortiz owns a 5.10 ERA, 12.5% walk rate, and a 1.48 WHIP, all of which inflate pitch counts. The real kicker is the matchup: the Cubs have the fifth-lowest chase rate (26.4%) and fourth-lowest whiff rate in MLB, stringing out at-bats and forcing early exits. Fourteen of the last fifteen right-handed starters to face Chicago have stayed UNDER 17.5 outs, with only two of them even reaching six full innings. With Cleveland’s bullpen fully rested after Allard’s three-inning stint, the Guardians will have no hesitation pulling Ortiz the moment he wobbles. All arrows point to another early hook at Wrigley.

Malcom Bamford advised taking the Cubs at –160 (or the run line if you want plus money) because the matchup tilts hard toward Chicago’s new ace, Shota Imanaga. The Japanese left-hander returned from the IL with five scoreless, one-hit innings and already owns a 1.25 ERA at Wrigley. Bamford hammered Cleveland’s season-long ineptitude against southpaws—28th in wRC+ and shut out in two of its last three games—while noting Tanner Bibee’s 4.96 road ERA and shaky 1.34 WHIP away from Progressive Field. With a rested bullpen and a lineup that crushes righties at home, Bamford made the Cubs closer to –180 and is fine laying the current tag or rolling the dice on –1.5 runs.

Matt Perrault laid out why he is laying the -1.5 with Chicago at +120. Shota Imanaga owns a 2.54 ERA and has been especially steady at Wrigley, while the under on his K-prop has cashed 75 % of the time—a sign his pitch efficiency keeps him in games. The Cubs are raking at home, averaging 5.5 runs over their last 10 and ranking near the top of MLB in slugging. Cleveland’s offense is the opposite, putting up just 2.6 runs per game in that same span with a .366 SLG. Tanner Bibee’s strikeout numbers dip on the road, and the Guardians have dropped seven of ten away from home. Chicago is 26-17 at Wrigley and profitable on the run line; Perrault trusts their top-10 bullpen to protect a multi-run lead. All of that adds up to a plus-money run-line ticket on the Cubs.

Lindquist is eyeing Jose Ramirez home run prop at Wrigley if books hang an inflated price because early weather models show wind blowing in. He argued that the market may over-react to the wind: Matthew Boyd allows a 19.5° average launch angle and 38.8% hard-hit rate, while J-Ram’s own 20° LA and pull-heavy profile let him cut through the breeze with no-doubters. If odds drift north of typical +450 range, Lindquist believes the underlying matchup still justifies a small sprinkle.