Kenny G leaned to Seattle at –110, explaining that fading Luis Ortiz is the clearest angle. Ortiz owns a 4.26 ERA and was rocked by the Reds for nine hits and four earned last time out, continuing a season-long pattern of inconsistency. Emerson Hancock, meanwhile, has allowed only four earned across his past 17 innings; the Mariners are winless in those starts largely because of shaky relief work. Kenny still prefers Seattle’s staff to Cleveland’s 3.74 ERA bullpen and an offense that ranks 24th in runs despite Jose Ramirez’s heroics. With the Guardians just 16-18 on the road and Seattle exactly .500 at T-Mobile Park, he felt the slight home favorite warranted a wager, albeit not strong enough for his pinned comment.

Kenny G said the plus-110 price on Cleveland is worth a sprinkle because George Kirby is in a classic let-down spot after the best start of his life. Kirby’s season line (1-3, 6.53 ERA) is still ugly despite that 14-strikeout gem against the Angels, and Kenny doubts the 37% whiff rate he showed in that outing is repeatable. Seattle’s bullpen has quietly slipped to a 3.96 ERA over the past month and now sits almost a full run worse than last season, so the late innings are no longer a safety net. On the other side, Tanner Bibee owns a respectable 3.81 ERA and just held Houston to two earned over 6.1 frames. Cleveland’s relief corps is merely “decent” compared with its 2024 dominance, but Kenny still trusts Emmanuel Clase and company more than the uneven Mariners pen. Offensively neither club scares anyone—Guardians are 23rd in runs, Mariners 20th in batting average—but Kenny expects Kirby’s command to wobble enough for Jose Ramirez and company to scrape across a few. He is passing on the low total of seven but leans Guardians moneyline as the only side with a smidge of value.

Guy Boston Sports said the best way to attack Mariners-Guardians is the FIRST-FIVE UNDER 4.5 runs (he paid –162 on ProfitX and would still take 4.0 elsewhere). He trusts George Kirby to look more like the ace who fanned 14 Angels with zero walks two starts ago—Kirby has trimmed the earned-runs column from five to six to two across his first three outings and still sports elite command (1.1 BB/9). On the other side, Tanner Bibee has quietly survived a brutal draw of Dodgers, Yankees and Astros, holding the latter two to three earned over 11 frames and carrying a 29 % whiff rate on the slider that should neutralize a Seattle lineup ranking bottom-10 in wRC+. Seattle has averaged just 4.1 runs at T-Mobile and Cleveland wins only 47 % of its road games, so the tout is avoiding a side and betting the early innings to stay quiet, even with stiff juice.

Just A Bet Outside said Gavin Williams’ strikeout over is worth a wager in Seattle. The Mariners have the sixth-highest K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks at 23.8%. Williams has piled up 71 punch-outs in 65.1 innings and has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his past seven outings; the only misses came against low-strikeout lineups (Houston and the Dodgers). Seattle’s T-Mobile Park is a favorable setting for pitchers, and Williams’ strikeout percentage actually rises to 27.8% versus left-handed bats, a split the Mariners lean on. The host expects 7–8 Ks and is comfortable playing the over at 5.5 or 6.5.

It's The Final Round offered Jose Ramirez as an interchangeable third leg for the hit parlay. Luis Castillo has surrendered a .333 average to left-handed bats in his last three starts, and Ramirez has at least one hit in 10 straight games and 33 of his last 34. Over his last 30 games he’s slashing .308 against right-handers (though only 10 recent plate appearances). The tout trusts the track record and form, calling Ramirez "plug and play" if bettors prefer him over Turner or Pasquantino.