JD Bets strongly advised taking Steven Kwan over 1.5 hits and runs (HR) today, noting he rarely goes consecutive games without hitting the mark. JD pointed out Kwan recently had zero HR, a rarity for him. Kwan typically follows such rare off-games with streaks of four or five straight games of achieving over 1.5 HR. JD is betting this trend continues today, expressing high confidence in his consistency and past pattern.

JD Bets sees Steven Kwan as an automatic hitter-prop pick today, pointing to his consistent batting performance (.357 against right-handers) and noting Kwan is a reliable choice for hit parlays. Although Cleveland's lineup overall has struggled, Kwan's steady bat makes him a standout actionable betting play against the Orioles' Tomoyuki Sugano.

Guy Boston leans toward betting Baltimore Orioles' team total over in their matchup against Cleveland's Tanner Bybee. Despite Bybee showing strong outings early, Boston predicts regression, noting significant inconsistency including getting shelled in a recent start against the Angels. He also underscores Baltimore's general success against right-handed pitching and the momentum gained from their strong 9-1 win the previous day. Boston acknowledges some hesitation due to pitching uncertainty but believes Baltimore's offense has potential to exceed their team total today.

Guy Boston targets Lane Thomas' under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs prop, largely due to his continued struggles this season. Thomas has had notable trouble with splitter and cutter pitches, both prominently thrown by Orioles pitcher Sagano. Boston emphasizes that Thomas is prone to strike out against these pitches, making this matchup especially unattractive for offensive production from Thomas today. Despite some lineup uncertainty, Boston asserts there's minimal downside due to voided bets on last-minute scratches.

Guy Boston recommends betting Nolan Jones under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs due to his early season struggles and poor matchup against Orioles starter Sagano. Jones has notably struggled, especially with strikeouts against splitters and cutters, which are Sagano's primary pitches. Boston points out Jones' poor performance against these pitch types specifically, making his under prop a strong and actionable play given the matchup dynamics.

Guy Boston strongly advocated betting the under on 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs prop for Baltimore's Jordan Westburg. Westburg has convincingly cashed this under in 8 of his last 10 games (averaging just 0.8 hits, runs, RBIs), and 5 consecutive games entering today's matchup. His season-long hit rate on this under is 64% (9 of 14 games), with an average of 1.64 hits, runs, RBIs per game inflated by one outlier game on March 29. His home splits show even clearer evidence, failing to exceed the prop in 4 of his last 5 at Camden Yards at just 0.8 average hits, runs, RBIs per game. Additionally, facing Cleveland's Tanner Bibby, Westburg has zero hits and struck out twice in 3 plate appearances. Westburg continues struggling against righties, batting just .186 in 2025. Although Tanner Bibby's underlying numbers look shaky (.255 BA allowed, 4.40 ERA), Westburg's continuing slump, terrible splits, and head-to-head numbers justify the under at -115 odds.

Kenny G favors Baltimore Orioles at home against the Cleveland Guardians at a price of +105. Despite Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee having positive expectations from oddsmakers, Kenny voiced skepticism about Cleveland's struggling offense (21st in runs, heavily reliant on Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan). Baltimore starter Tomoyuki Sagano hasn't been overwhelming (3.86 ERA, 8 hits and 3 ER last game vs Toronto), but Kenny expects him to do well as he faces the Guardians' weakest offense of the season. He also praised Baltimore's surprising bullpen (3.29 ERA). Kenny referenced Baltimore's recent improving offense, including a nine-run performance featuring Jackson Holliday's impactful early grand slam, giving him further optimism.

Mal Bamford favors the over 8.5 runs between Cleveland and Baltimore, motivated by significant scoring trends involving both pitching staffs and lineups. Tanner Bibee has been associated with three straight overs to start the season. Meanwhile, Baltimore has a notable 10-2 first-five innings record to the over. Mal also highlighted the Orioles' unstable pitching rotation and bullpen struggles, coupled with Cleveland’s recent offensive surge. Combining these elements creates a prime opportunity for bettors to confidently take advantage of an attractive over line.

Mal Bamford favors the over 8.5 runs between Cleveland and Baltimore, motivated by significant scoring trends involving both pitching staffs and lineups. Tanner Bibee has been associated with three straight overs to start the season. Meanwhile, Baltimore has a notable 10-2 first-five innings record to the over. Mal also highlighted the Orioles' unstable pitching rotation and bullpen struggles, coupled with Cleveland’s recent offensive surge. Combining these elements creates a prime opportunity for bettors to confidently take advantage of an attractive over line.

Dylan Rockford enthusiastically endorsed the Cleveland Guardians at -112 against a struggling Orioles squad. Dylan highlighted Baltimore’s recent poor form, citing their 2-4 home record and a significant decline in offensive performance since the start of the season. Further criticizing Baltimore, Dylan mentioned inconsistencies like frequent outfield fence adjustments, contributing to ongoing struggles. He praised Cleveland's offense heating up lately, scoring six or more runs in four of the last five games, and commended Guardians starter Tanner Bibee’s solid record except for one rough outing. Seeing clear advantages for Cleveland in both starting pitching and overall team quality, Dylan confidently suggested betting against Baltimore here unless offered significantly better odds.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing the Orioles on the moneyline, primarily due to Baltimore’s strong bullpen performance in recent matchups against Cleveland. Sugano has pitched well but hasn't gone deep into games yet; even so, Baltimore's relief corps has effectively neutralized the Guardians' offense. By contrast, despite Cleveland outhitting Baltimore, their bullpen struggles have cost them runs. Given Bibee's difficulties against stronger offenses, this pitching matchup strongly favors Baltimore in a close betting scenario.

Cash Out Sports Picks warned against trusting Tanner Bibee in his upcoming start against Baltimore. While Bibee has looked strong in two starts against the weak-hitting Royals, he had a disastrous outing when stepping up against the Angels, surrendering nine hits, seven runs, and four homers. Adding to concern, the Orioles hitters have had past success against Bibee, batting .380 collectively. With Baltimore's bullpen pitching excellent, Cash Out Sports Picks believes Orioles bats will again have Bibee's number this game.

Bill Harrelson identified Gunnar Henderson as a strong pick to have less than half a run in the Orioles' matchup against the Guardians. Henderson has consistently struggled to score lately, going below this number in seven of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 games. Although his historic head-to-head record against Cleveland hasn't been ideal, Henderson failed to score a run in the most recent game against them. Additionally, sportsbooks like DraftKings are leaning against Henderson scoring as well. These consistent struggles and negative sportsbook odds lead Harrelson to recommend strongly fading Henderson's run-scoring prospects.

B Wade thoroughly recommended fading Jordan Westburg’s ability to hit over 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs. Westburg has struggled mightily, hitting this prop only five times so far this season, failing in five consecutive games, and not registering a single hit across his last four outings. Particularly alarming is Westburg’s .186 batting average against right-handed pitching, with righty Tanner Bibee set to start on the mound. Noting Westburg clearly isn't seeing the ball well, B Wade confidently suggested fading, particularly given the strong predictive downward trend.

Data Skrive recommended strongly against betting the over on Tomoyuki Sugano's strikeout prop of 3.5, urging instead to take the under due to his notably low strikeout average. Sugano has averaged just 1.7 strikeouts per game in 3 appearances this season, dramatically below his set prop line. With the under priced at -160, Sugano's current strikeout form suggests this is a smart bet.

Data Skrive predicts the Baltimore Orioles defeating the Cleveland Guardians 4-3, suggesting value in the Orioles moneyline at -105. The slight pitching advantage for Baltimore, with Tomoyuki Sugano's steadier 3.86 ERA over Tanner Bibee's 4.40 ERA, and the Orioles playing at home make Baltimore a solidly priced bet despite their slightly worse overall record (7-10 vs Cleveland's 9-8).

Sean Zerillo notes significant steps backward for Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee compared to his solid 2024 campaign. Bibee's advanced metrics are troubling this year, evidenced by a 4.74 xERA, 5.31 xFIP, 4.34 botERA, and a drastically reduced strikeout-minus-walk rate (4.8% compared to 20.1% in 2024). The shape of Bibee's fastball has worsened according to Stuff+ ratings, falling from a 92 Stuff+ last season to 81 Stuff+ this year. He's also switched pitch selections, moving away from a strong curveball (109 Stuff+, .309 xwOBA allowed) to a significantly less effective cutter (89 Stuff+, two homers allowed, .666 xwOBA in a limited sample). Zerillo suggests fading Bibee given these worrying signs of regression, change in repertoire, and underlying metrics.

Sean Zerillo advises caution around Orioles pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano despite a strong surface-level 3.86 ERA. Sugano's underlying metrics align poorly with his current ERA, showing projected rest-of-season FIP between 4.79 to 5.08, closer to his advanced indicators like xERA (5.90) and xFIP (5.54). Sugano's command has unexpectedly slipped against MLB hitters, despite previously excellent control (only 2.6% walk rate in Japan last season), likely due to cautious nibbling against Major League competition. Additionally, his Stuff+ rated overall below average (92 Stuff+), with only his slider (109 Stuff+) standing out. Given his struggles to miss bats consistently at the MLB level, Zerillo recommends betting against Sugano for this matchup.

Kingpin highlights the Guardians’ moneyline value, backing Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee’s strikeout potential and pitch arsenal against Baltimore’s aggressive offense. Cleveland thrives in low-scoring, bullpen-dependent games, and Bibee can neutralize the Orioles' strongest hitters. Paired against Sugano’s adapting process to MLB lineups, Cleveland offers strong moneyline value as a slight dog.

The computer model from Data Skrive projects the Baltimore Orioles to pull off a minor upset at home against the favored Cleveland Guardians. Despite being slight underdogs at -101 against Cleveland's -118 moneyline, the prediction is bolstered by underlying indicators of home advantage and pitching matchups. The game is also projected to stay under the total of 8.5 runs, meaning the Orioles' pitching and defense at Camden Yards will be pivotal factors in this win prediction.

JD Bets recommends betting the over for Dean Kremer's earned runs (over 2.5 earned runs), believing Kremer is vulnerable based on recent outings. He highlights Kremer's poor recent performances, notably giving up 4 earned runs against Cleveland previously and allowing 8 runs recently to a weak Kansas City lineup. Despite Cleveland's lower hitting ranking, JD expects multiple home runs and scores from them against Kremer, emphasizing the recent pattern of struggles.

Jimmy Adams praised Guardians starter Gavin Williams, emphasizing his outstanding early-season performance and strong underlying metrics. Williams has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his three starts and has surrendered only a single barrel all year—an extraordinary indicator of weak contact. Given Williams' hot performance and the Guardians' recent strong play (winners of six of their last seven), Adams concluded Cleveland is in great position against a struggling Orioles lineup. Adams identified the Guardians as having a clear edge, recommending backing them at plus-money as a valuable underdog play.

Jimmy Adams labeled Orioles starting pitcher Dean Kremer as an immediate fade, highlighting his exceptionally poor early-season performance and underlying metrics. Kremer enters with an ERA over 8.00 through his first three starts this season, having allowed five runs on Opening Day followed by six runs in his most recent outing. Adams detailed Kremer's particularly troubling analytics, noting that he ranks in the fourth percentile in pitching run value and fifth percentile in whiff percentage, pointing out his inability to get swings and misses and generally weak velocity. Given these dire indicators and the Orioles' recent struggles losing four of their last five games, Adams strongly recommended betting against Kremer in this matchup.

Bettor Mark advised considering Cleveland Guardians as an underdog at +115 against the Orioles. He singled out pitcher Gavin Williams as looking impressive in his previous start, facing a struggling Dean Kremer on Baltimore's side. With Kramer performing poorly this season, Mark expects Cleveland to find success. Although this was not officially on Mark's card, he strongly recommended it to bettors looking for another valuable pick.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting on Cleveland's money line against Baltimore, due to significant concerns with the Orioles' rotation. Baltimore lost Corbin Burnes in the offseason which weakened their starting pitching. Dean Kremer has struggled significantly in his first three starts and holds a poor track record against Cleveland. Charlie Morton has also shown inconsistency. Though both teams have strong bullpens, Cleveland is more patient and efficient offensively, potentially exploiting Kremer's poor form. Cleveland's lineup has shown recent improvement, scoring six or more runs in three of their last four games before this series, highlighting the potential vulnerability in Baltimore's starting pitching.

Just A Bet Outside strongly endorses Steven Kwan, emphasizing his favorable matchup against struggling Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer. Kwan is batting .360 over the past seven days, showing surprising pop with two home runs recently and hitting .322 on the season. Historically, Kwan is 4-for-8 off Kremer. Furthermore, Kremer has been extremely vulnerable against lefties, surrendering a .389 average and .722 slugging. Kwan is ideal for player props or hits parlays today.

Just A Bet Outside highlights Dean Kremer as a struggling starter to target. Through his first three games, Kremer surrendered five, two, and six runs while not surpassing five innings pitched in any outing. His strikeout figures are extremely low with only 11 Ks over 14.1 innings and alarmingly few whiffs. Opponents have easily scored three-plus runs off Kremer before bullpens even become involved, making the Guardians' team total over 2.5 a strong play.

Kenny G is keen on betting the Guardians at +114, primarily betting against Baltimore starter Dean Kremer's poor form (8.16 ERA). Kremer gave up 8 hits, 6 runs, including three homers in his recent outing against the Diamondbacks and struggled severely against weaker lineups like the Royals and Blue Jays earlier. Kenny G sees this matchup as a prime opportunity for an ordinary Cleveland offense to capitalize against a struggling pitcher. Gavin Williams, the young Cleveland starter, has impressed early (3.46 ERA), supported by an elite Guardians bullpen. Although the Orioles' bullpen improved from last year, Kenny trusts the Guardians' significantly better bullpen and sees an advantage with Gavin Williams against an Orioles team underperforming offensively.

It's The Final Round strongly advised targeting Steven Kwan against Dean Kremer due to excellent matchup factors. Kwan is performing exceptionally well recently, recording hits in 9 of his last 11 games. Historically against Kremer, Kwan has a stellar 500 batting average (4 hits in 8 at bats). This year, Kwan's success extends across Kremer's varied pitch arsenal, hitting four-seam fastballs at .400, cutters .667, curves 1.000, and historically performing well overall. Kremer's pitch struggles (4-seam fastball allowing 500 batting average this year and split-finger at .700 average) further solidify Kwan as an excellent player prop consideration.

Chris Ruffolo is skeptical of Baltimore's offensive performance against right-handed pitching early in the season. Orioles hitters have struggled significantly against righties, batting just .210, mirroring similar struggles experienced by the Guardians. Ruffolo believes these offensive troubles may persist, particularly with Cleveland's superior bullpen capable of limiting Baltimore's scoring opportunities late in the game. Furthermore, he noted that Baltimore is currently fielding multiple starters with high ERAs such as Dean Kremer and Charlie Morton, intensifying the team's vulnerability given that their offense has been unable to compensate sufficiently so far this season.

Chris Ruffolo recommended taking the Cleveland Guardians against Baltimore, largely due to Cleveland's substantial bullpen advantage. Ruffolo highlighted the Guardians' strong bullpen performance in April, citing their near league-best 2.40 bullpen ERA. Conversely, he pointed to Baltimore's bullpen ERA of 4.08, which ranks just outside the bottom 10, making late-game situations far riskier for the Orioles. In tight contests, Ruffolo emphasized greater trust in Cleveland's relief pitching and underscored the bullpen disparity as a key betting factor, especially with the potential for Cleveland to have a late-inning lead.

Chris Ruffolo strongly supports the Cleveland Guardians as an even money play against the Orioles, primarily due to Baltimore starter Dean Kremer's recent struggles. Ruffolo cited Cleveland's patient and disciplined approach at the plate, noting they consistently take concentrated at-bats which should continue against the struggling Kremer, who has allowed significant home run totals and has an elevated ERA early in the season. Even though Cleveland's offensive metrics against right-handed pitching are modest (team batting average .212 and OPS just outside bottom 10), Ruffolo trusts their lineup to capitalize. Additionally, Ruffolo emphasized confidence in the Guardians' bullpen, highlighting their excellent 2.40 bullpen ERA in April, significantly better than Baltimore's bullpen ERA of 4.08. He stated that bullpen superiority would likely play a key role if Cleveland manages to maintain a lead into the late innings.

Chris Ruffolo advised fading Dean Kremer due to his rough start to the 2025 MLB season. Kremer has struggled significantly through his first three starts, all on the road, posting an 8.16 ERA and giving up four home runs and 13 earned runs in just 14.1 innings pitched. Ruffolo highlighted Kremer's issues with consistent hard contact, referencing his recent start against the Diamondbacks where he surrendered six runs including three home runs over only 4.2 innings. Ruffolo also pointed out Kremer's previous season struggles pitching at home, where his ERA was nearing 4.5, reinforcing a negative stance on Kremer's outlook facing a disciplined Guardians lineup.

Data Skrive recommends the Orioles (-135) over the Guardians in Baltimore, predicting a high-scoring 7-6 Orioles victory. Despite Baltimore starter Dean Kremer’s rough early season (8.16 ERA), the model favors Baltimore's offensive upside at home and anticipates an Over (8.5) given the quality of hitters and recent form of the teams. Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams (1-0, 3.46 ERA) presents a sturdier presence but likely won't subdue the projected offensive environment.

Data Skrive highlights Steven Kwan's favorable RBI prop bet opportunity against struggling Orioles pitching. Kwan has been on fire lately, currently riding a five-game hitting streak where he's batting .391 with two home runs and eight RBI. He's leading the Guardians with a team-best .333 average and 11 RBI on the season. These numbers position him ideally against Baltimore pitching staff, which has posted a 4.86 ERA and a low strikeout rate (5.9 K/9), increasing the likelihood he makes productive contact and generates run-scoring opportunities. Given Kwan’s current heater and Baltimore's difficulty keeping opponents off the bases, Data Skrive presents Kwan as a strong candidate to hit the Over on his RBI prop bet.

Data Skrive identifies a significant betting trend suggesting to avoid backing the Orioles in their current scenario as favorites. Baltimore has performed poorly under similar conditions, winning just twice out of the seven times they were favored this season. Furthermore, in their last 10 games, the Orioles have been favored on the moneyline six times, going 1-5 outright (and only 2-8 against the run line spread). Given these persistent struggles and a record of only one win out of three games when favored at odds of -130 or more, Data Skrive implies the Orioles are overpriced favorites worth fading in this matchup against Cleveland.

Kingpin recommends betting the Orioles moneyline, highlighting their offensive advantage at home versus Cleveland rookie pitcher Gavin Williams. Baltimore boasts productive young hitters like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. Although Williams is a talented rookie, he will face a challenging test against Baltimore’s confident and aggressive lineup in hitter-friendly conditions at Camden Yards.

Guy Boston recommended Jordan Westburg's under 1.5 total bases against Guardians starter Logan Allen. While highly juiced (-154 Caesars), Guy Boston emphasizes additional value (10-20 cents better odds compared to other books). Westburg has struggled historically against left-handed pitching and logged at least two bases only twice this season, both occasions coming earlier in the year. Despite previous success in a tiny sample size against Logan Allen (two hits including one extra base hit), Guy anticipates regression towards the norm, providing excellent betting value at Caesars lines.

Guy Boston identified Lane Thomas' under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs as an appealing player prop bet (currently -140 on DraftKings). Thomas specifically struggles against curveballs, which is Charlie Morton's primary pitch (expected heavy usage in this matchup). Although Thomas previously managed three hits in 12 at-bats against Morton, none resulted in RBIs or runs, suggesting limited offensive upside under the current situation.

Guy Boston is bullish on the Orioles moneyline (-140 range) versus Cleveland. He argued Baltimore has upside potential with starter Charlie Morton against a struggling Guardians offense. Morton's pitch mix (fastball, curveball, cutter, sinker) aligns perfectly against the Guardians, who historically struggle hitting those specific pitches. Cleveland reverted to offensive struggles recently, particularly limited by Royals pitcher Cole Ragans. Although Logan Allen presents a left-handed matchup, typically challenging for Baltimore, Guy expressed confidence in a bounce-back performance given the Orioles' ability to occasionally produce big offensive outputs. Baltimore returning home with potential upside in Morton, the bullpen, and offensive talent creates attractive betting value.

Derek Carty highlighted Cleveland Guardians hitter Kyle Manzardo as a strong home run prop play, with a projection giving him approximately a 15% chance of hitting a home run, providing excellent value at +700 odds. Manzardo's improved barrel rate is the primary driving factor, jumping dramatically from 21.2% season-wide up to 44.4% over the past week, suggesting he's catching fire at the ideal time for bettors.

Kenny G expressed specific concerns regarding Orioles starter Charlie Morton, citing his rough start to the season with an 0-3 record and an 8.78 ERA. Morton has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his three starts, facing tough opponents in Toronto, Boston, and Arizona. Though facing a lighter Guardians offense now, Kenny remains skeptical given Morton's age (41) and evident struggles. While acknowledging Baltimore's bullpen has been decent (3.58 ERA), Kenny emphasized Cleveland’s improving offense, likely leading to continued issues for Morton in this game.

It's The Final Round strongly supports targeting Steven Kwan due to his exceptional performance against Charlie Morton's primary pitches. Morton throws a four-seam fastball 40% of the time, against which Kwan has a 400 average and a home run this season. On Morton's curveball (33% usage), Kwan is batting 1.000 (1-for-1). Additionally, Kwan is hitting .429 against changeups and .667 with a homer against cutters. Historically, Kwan is 1-for-3 against Morton, and he is currently hot, hitting safely in nine of his last 11 games. Morton, meanwhile, has allowed a high .385 average and a home run off his curveball early this season, making this matchup especially favorable for DFS player prop bets involving Kwan.