Scott Reichel made the Under 8 his official lock for Guardians‑Pirates, stressing that most books have already fallen to 7.5 yet an outlier eight is still available at –122. Reichel trusts Paul Skenes to dominate and doubts either lineup can capitalize on Ben Lively’s mediocrity after watching Pittsburgh get blanked by Trevor Williams earlier in the week. He projects a 4‑2 type game, arguing the total is inflated simply because both starters are unproven at the big‑league level. With two bottom‑five offenses in wRC+, cold April weather at PNC, and Skenes likely turning things over to an above‑average Pirates bullpen, Reichel sees very little path to nine combined runs and would play the Under at anything 8 or better.

Scott Reichel leaned Under 8 (and first‑five Under) in Guardians‑Pirates, citing anemic bats on both sides. Pittsburgh is batting .196 overall, just .180 with a paltry 2.3 runs per nine at PNC Park, and their lineup is so thin that Joey Bart is hitting cleanup while 37‑year‑old Andrew McCutchen still slots third. On Cleveland’s side, Ben Lively has held three of four opponents Under the number and draws a Pittsburgh order that ranks bottom‑three in hard‑hit rate. Paul Skenes rebounded from a rough debut against St. Louis to dominate last time out, and Reichel expects another string of zeroes. With neither club trusted to string together rallies, he projected a 2‑1 or 2‑0 score line and recommended full‑game Under as well as Pirates team total Under 3.5 where available.

Kyle Purviance said he will bet Paul Skenes’ strikeout under if books open 7.5 Ks Saturday against Cleveland. Purviance noted that Skenes has looked fine in real‑life terms—limiting runs and working into the middle innings—but he is not missing bats at the rate bettors expected when he debuted. Cleveland has quietly reverted to their usual contact‑heavy profile, now owning the 11th‑fewest strikeouts per game on the season and only six Ks per game over their last three. With the Guardians’ left‑handed core of Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan routinely spoiling pitches and Pittsburgh’s bullpen looming if Skenes can’t go deep, Purviance wants plus money on the under 7.5 and would still consider 6.5 at standard juice. He called it the only actionable angle in a game where he refuses to trust Pittsburgh’s shaky lineup or pen.

Bettor Mark grabbed Cleveland at +150 on the money line for a half‑unit, calling it a “good fade‑Paul‑Skenes spot.” He respects Skenes’ upside but pointed out that Pittsburgh’s offense has provided poor run support in his previous starts and that Cleveland excels at situational baseball—putting the ball in play, taking extra bases, and pressuring defenses. Mark trusts the Guardians’ bullpen more than Pittsburgh’s and believes that if Skenes exits after five or six innings, Cleveland’s superior relief corps can tilt a close game. With the Guardians’ small‑ball approach and edges in the later frames, he sees +150 as too much value to pass up.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Pirates on the moneyline, leaning heavily on rookie phenom Paul Skeens. The 22‑year‑old right‑hander enters with a 2.96 ERA and an eye‑popping strikeout‑to‑walk ratio that highlights his command of triple‑digit heat and a wipeout slider. Cleveland’s lineup has been feast‑or‑famine, posting two runs or fewer in three of its previous four games before the series, and the host cited those cold spells as a bad match for Skeens’ velocity. Pittsburgh is also motivated to level the series after a wild, high‑scoring opener, and the handicapper expects a cleaner effort from a home bullpen eager for redemption. With the Pirates owning the clear starting‑pitching advantage and playing in front of a Saturday crowd at PNC, the tout called this “Pittsburgh’s game to lose.”

The same handicapper paired his side play with the full‑game UNDER, pointing to a duel between Paul Skeens and Cleveland right‑hander Ben Lively. Skeens’ power arsenal meets a Guardians offense that just erupted in Game 1 but has otherwise been dormant, while Lively faces a Pirates club that has scored three runs or fewer in seven of its last nine outings. Historical data backs the lean: the UNDER hit in two of three meetings last year with an average of 9.3 total runs despite weaker pitching. Factor in a cool April night on the North Shore and motivated bullpens after Thursday’s shoot‑out, and the tout foresees a “grind, not a slug‑fest,” recommending the UNDER as the totals play.

Romanelli is comfortable eating the juice on the Pirates ‑1.5 behind rookie flamethrower Paul Skenes. Pittsburgh just throttled an opponent 10‑3 in Skenes’ last outing and Ron sees a similar script. Skenes has yet to allow a homer, commands the zone, and induces chase even if Cleveland’s elite contact skills trim his strikeout total. Ben Lively gives up roughly a long ball per start and Romanelli singled out O’Neil Cruz as a home‑run prop target. Pittsburgh’s bullpen is middle‑of‑the‑pack statistically but good enough to protect a lead, so he predicts the Bucs cruise again.

Data Skrive’s win‑probability feed gives Pittsburgh just a 53% chance to defeat Cleveland, but the betting market is asking bettors to lay -178 (implied 64%). That 11‑percentage‑point gap translates to roughly a 6% negative expected value on the Pirates moneyline. Pittsburgh is only 5‑4 as a favorite this year and 3‑7 ATS over its last 10 games, while the Guardians have already posted three outright wins as underdogs. With both offenses mediocre (Pirates 3.4 runs, Guardians 4.4 runs per game over their past 10) and neither pitching staff coughing up more than 3.5 earned runs per nine in that span, the model suggests passing on the chalk and instead considering Cleveland at +149 or better.

The Data Skrive model projects Saturday’s matchup in Pittsburgh to fall short of the 8‑run total. The key inputs: the Pirates are averaging only 3.4 runs across their last 10 games and have gone under in seven of those contests, while the Guardians sit at 4.4 runs per game during the same stretch with a 4‑4‑2 O/U mark. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff owns a 3.26 ERA over its last 10 outings and Cleveland’s is at 3.48, suggesting both bullpens are in form. Guardians starter Ben Lively brings a 10.3 K/9 that could neutralize Oneil Cruz and the Pirates’ left‑handed power. Despite a glitchy 5‑4 score projection (which would hit nine runs), the model still assigns a 53% probability to the Under—enough edge to fire at even money or better.

Kingpin took Skenes Over 6.5 Ks, noting his 32.4% whiff rate and that Cleveland swings at first pitches the fifth‑most in MLB, ideal for a pitcher who tunnels fastball/slider from the same release. Skenes has been allowed to reach 100 pitches in each of his last two starts and owns a 14.2 K/9 at home.

Daniel Vreeland recommended the NRFI at -125 for Guardians‑Pirates, leaning on dominant opening‑frame profiles for both starters. Paul Skenes owns a sub‑3.00 ERA and has allowed more than two runs only once all season, while Cleveland’s bats have cooled to 17th in overall scoring (4.11 runs/game) and 19th in first‑inning scoring (0.42). Ben Lively, despite being the lesser‑known arm, has yet to permit a run in either the first or second inning this year. Pittsburgh’s offense should cooperate—they average just 0.24 first‑inning runs (27th in MLB). With both clubs struggling to strike early and two starters who excel their first trip through the order, Vreeland sees strong value in a scoreless first.

Kenny G also leaned Under 9 runs in the same Guardians–Pirates matchup. Both offenses are sputtering—Cleveland is 22nd in MLB scoring and Pittsburgh is tied with them after producing 1, 6, 0 and 10 runs against Washington. He highlighted Ortiz’s 10‑K breakout and the Pirates’ tendency to scuffle versus right‑handed strike‑throwers. Meanwhile, Moldzinski’s splits are better at home and the Pirates bullpen sports a 3.23 ERA. With two top‑10 relief corps and temperatures in the mid‑50s with slight pitcher‑friendly winds, Kenny projected 7.3 total runs, making Under 9 a playable edge.

Kenny G liked Cleveland at ‑122, citing a pitching mismatch and bullpen edge. Guardians starter Luis Ortiz (10 strikeouts, 1‑hit gem vs. Kansas City last time out) appears to have "turned the corner" after a rough opener, while Pittsburgh counters with Carmine (or Moldzinski) holding a 6.23 ERA and coming off four earned in 4.1 IP at Cincinnati. Kenny trusts Cleveland’s top‑5 bullpen (sub‑3.30 ERA) far more than Pittsburgh’s late arms. While Cleveland’s bats have been cold—only three total runs over the last two games—Steven Kwan’s .330 average and Jose Ramirez’s steady OBP are signs the offense is "due to awaken." Given Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 22nd in runs and just posted 0 or 1 runs in two of four versus the lowly Nationals, Kenny believes the Guardians should be closer to ‑140 and snagged the current price.

Joe Orrico said he is ready to drop Gavin Williams in any 10‑ or 12‑team mixed league. Williams has walked nine batters in 11⅔ regular‑season innings and has yet to post a start with more than five strikeouts. Orrico worries the right‑hander is pitching through the same elbow discomfort that shut him down last September, noting the common pattern where pitchers who skip surgery eventually lose effectiveness (citing Triston McKenzie’s velocity dip and Gerrit Cole’s current shutdown as parallels). The 25‑year‑old is sitting 1.4 mph lower on his four‑seamer, has already surrendered four homers, and owns a 41% hard‑hit rate. Orrico’s bottom line: in shallow formats the waiver wire is rich with healthier upside arms—Jose Soriano, Kyle Harrison, even short‑term streamers—so there is no reason to keep burning a roster spot on Williams while waiting for an inevitable IL stint or TJ announcement.

Reichel projected a low‑scoring affair at PNC and grabbed Under 9. Luis Ortiz’s surface numbers are ugly (6.06 ERA) but he fanned 10 Royals over 5.2 one‑run innings last time out and may have turned a corner. Opposing him, Kyle Molodzinski sits on a 6.23 ERA, yet his lone good outing—five innings, one run versus St. Louis—came at home, the same setting for Friday. Reichel stressed neither lineup can capitalize: Pittsburgh has scored one run or fewer in three of its last four, essentially living off Oneil Cruz’s occasional bomb, while Cleveland’s bats remain bottom‑third in ISO and hard‑hit rate. Even if both starters are merely average, the lack of reliable run producers keeps this total inflated. He did lean Guardians –125 thanks to the slightly deeper order, but the actionable wager is the full‑game under.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Cleveland despite its recent skid. The handicapper cited a bullpen edge (3.12 ERA, sixth in MLB versus Pittsburgh’s 3.23, eighth) and the Guardians’ 5‑2 record in the last seven meetings. Pirates starter Carmen Mlodzinski has coughed up 17 hits and nine earned runs in just 13 innings, whereas Luis Ortiz has settled down after a rocky debut, giving up only four earned over his last 11.2 frames with 13 strikeouts. Pittsburgh’s .814 OPS with runners in scoring position is impressive, but the capper expects regression and believes Cleveland’s deeper roster will capitalize on a Pirates club “on the edge of a slide.” With plus value still available, the Guardians are the recommended side.

Even with Cleveland listed at –134, Data Skrive projected Pittsburgh (+113) to grab the win at PNC Park. The computer leans Under 9 in a matchup of clubs hovering around .500 (Guardians 9‑9, Pirates 8‑12) and sees value in the home dog moneyline plus the lower‑scoring script.

Bevilacqua highlighted Pittsburgh at +120 on the moneyline as Friday’s second‑best edge. Dimers’ model assigns the Pirates a 48.9% win probability against the Guardians, translating to a 3.4% positive expected value even though the computer makes them a virtual coin‑flip. The recommendation leans on the same simulation framework that drives all Dimers picks and has been monitored for multi‑season accuracy.

Greg Peterson backed the Guardians at -115, noting that Luis Ortiz knows the Pittsburgh hitters inside‑out after spending last season there and still logged a 3.32 ERA with only 1.1 HR/9. Pittsburgh counters with Carmen Mlodzinski, whose surface 6.23 ERA looks ugly even though the FIP sits at 2.24, but the larger issue is offensive support: the Pirates lineup is 24th in MLB, averaging fewer than 3.5 runs a night. With Ortiz’s ground‑ball profile and a weak Pittsburgh offense, Peterson graded the Guardians as -125 favorites and sees current market price as value.