Kenny G laid the −125 with Cincinnati, citing a distinct edge on the mound and in the late innings. Andrew Abbott owns a sparkling 2.10 ERA and has allowed just one earned run across his last four starts, while the Reds’ bullpen continues to trend up at 3.43 (7th-best in MLB). In contrast, Luis Ortiz sports a 4.78 ERA and has alternated good and bad outings; his last road start was a blow-up in Washington. Cleveland’s bats are ice-cold—19th in runs, 23rd in OBP/AVG, and they have produced 1-5-2-5-0 runs in their last six games—yet the Guardians still lean on a shaky 4.07 pen. Great American Ballpark’s homer-friendly profile further punishes fly-ball mistakes. With Cincinnati’s offense heating up (4-5-7 runs during a three-game win streak) and Elly De La Cruz finally over .250, Kenny expects Abbott to work six strong and turn a lead over to a superior relief corps.

To correlate with the Abbott play, B Wade took Jhonkensy Noel under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Noel is batting a brutal .118 (4-for-34) against left-handed pitching and has cleared this prop in just 10 of 32 games overall. On the road he’s even worse, going over in only 3 of 14 contests (21%). Against southpaws specifically, he’s 2-for-7 (29%). With a red-hot Abbott on the bump, Wade expects limited contact opportunities and thinks Noel likely throws up a zero.

B Wade backed Andrew Abbott to allow fewer than 4.5 hits. Abbott has surrendered five or more knocks just once in six starts (at Coors Field) and enters with a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Cleveland is scuffling badly, ranking fifth-worst in MLB with only 329 hits through 44 games—under eight per contest. Given the Guardians’ slump versus lefties and Abbott’s current form, Wade projects another sub-five-hit outing.

Douglass highlighted Guardians-Reds Under 9 runs at -108 as another profitable total, citing a 54.2% success probability and 2.3% edge from Dimers’ model. Cleveland’s offense sits 24th in hard-hit rate, while Cincinnati faces a rested Tanner Bibee whose xERA is a full run lower than his surface ERA thanks to a .347 BABIP fluke. Hunter Greene counters with a 31% whiff rate and has held right-handed hitters to a .279 slugging mark. Progressive Field temperatures in the low 60s with a 7-mph breeze blowing in further dampen run expectancy. Simulations cluster around 7–8 combined runs, making the under playable down to 8.5.

Morgan called Jose Ramirez a cornerstone spend at $5,600 after a three-game homer streak pushed him to nine long balls and 12 steals. Ramirez owns a 1.000+ OPS versus lefties since 2023 and missed a 40/40 season by one homer last year. He now faces Andrew Abbott, whose career marks (3.61 ERA, 1.43 HR/9) suggest the lefty’s early-season K spike is smoke and mirrors. Morgan expects Ramirez’s switch-hit power to play big in Great American Ball Park.

Morgan spotlighted Elly De La Cruz at $3.8k, pointing to eight home runs and 15 steals already after last year’s 25/67 breakout. He likes the matchup with Luis L. Ortiz, whose career 4.55 FIP and 7.29 road ERA with Cleveland have made him one of the more attackable righties on the slate.

Morgan locked Elly De La Cruz into his core hitter pool, pointing to the shortstop’s eight homers and 15 steals already in 2025. He’ll face Luis L. Ortiz, owner of a career 4.55 FIP and a brutal 7.29 road ERA in his first season with Cleveland. With the stolen-base upside and a suspect right-hander on the mound, Morgan views EDLC as a ceiling play worth the $3,800 salary in all contest types.

Peterson laid ‑115 with Cincinnati, citing Andrew Abbott’s 2.10 ERA and eye-popping 11.4 K/9 compared to Luis Ortiz’s 4.78 ERA and 4.09 FIP. The Reds also boast a 3.53 bullpen ERA (10th) while Cleveland’s relief corps sits at 4.19 (19th). With both the starting and late-inning advantages plus home field, Peterson made the Reds ‑148, giving bettors more than thirty cents of theoretical edge.

Reichel laid the short –120 with Cleveland because Brady Singer has fallen off a cliff: 11 earned runs on 16 hits across his last 8.1 innings and a season ERA pushing 5.00. Rookie Tanner Bibee, meanwhile, has allowed fewer than three earned in four straight starts and owns a 3.80 ERA overall. Scott added that Cincinnati’s offense finally erupted only against batting-practice arm Bryse Wilson, but had scored two runs or fewer in seven of the previous 10 games. With the better pitcher and lineup, he sees value on the Guardians.

For the same contest, Cash Out Sports Picks prefers the under, citing an 8-2 under trend in the last ten Guardians-Reds meetings and a 62 % under clip in Cincinnati’s 37 no-rest games this season. The Reds’ lineup has posted ten total runs in its last four and has been shut to one or zero in seven of the past eleven. Bibee’s current form plus a seasoned Cleveland bullpen should stifle any breakout. The Guardians themselves have played four unders in their past six. With neither starter projected for a meltdown and two inconsistent offenses, the tout believes the line is a shade too high.

Kenny G leaned to the UNDER 9 runs in Guardians-Reds despite both clubs’ season-long over trends. He argued that Cleveland ranks 18th in runs and 25th in batting average while Cincinnati sits 22nd in average and slugging, with their 11th-place runs total inflated by a 24-run outlier against Baltimore. Tanner Bibee enters off a seven-inning, one-run gem versus Philadelphia and has strung together four quality starts, while Brady Singer’s 4.97 ERA is skewed by two road blowups; Kenny expects some positive regression pitching back at Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati’s bullpen owns a solid 3.53 ERA and Cleveland’s is mediocre (4.15) but serviceable. Given the pedestrian lineups and capable starters, he sees limited run-scoring upside and thinks nine is a tick too high, labeling the under his preferred lean if forced to take a side.

Cash Out Sports Picks played Cleveland on the money-line, highlighting Tanner Bibee’s quiet heater—only six earned runs over his last four outings and past success versus Cincinnati. The Guardians average 4.5 runs per game overall and 4.7 on the road while hitting .245 away versus right-handed pitching. He is unconvinced by the Reds’ starter and called Cincinnati’s recent mound work “shaky.” Offensively the Reds have scored one or zero runs in seven of their last eleven, making it hard to trust them even at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. With a healthier roster and the AL Central race in sight, the tout expects Cleveland to grind out another intra-state win.

It's The Final Round highlighted Steven Kwan as his favorite Friday prop, expecting at least one hit – and very possibly two – against Brady Singer. The tout broke down the matchup pitch-by-pitch: Singer’s primary sinker (38% usage) is allowing a .226 BA, but Kwan owns a .500 BA (9-for-18) off sinkers this season. Singer’s slider (.267 BA allowed) and cutter (.231) do not scare him either, while Kwan is batting .263 with two homers off Singer’s four-seam. Career head-to-head numbers are firmly in Kwan’s favor: 9 hits in 23 ABs (.391) with two bombs. Kwan is locked-in, recording a knock in 23 of his last 26 games. Finally, the launch-angle data screams green light – Kwan sits 25th in MLB with 41.5% of his batted balls in the 8-32° “sweet-spot,” while Singer is a bottom-quartile arm at preventing that angle (42.3% sweet-spot allowed, 335th of 358 pitchers). The tout framed it as a must-play hit prop or total bases over.

The fifth prop is Steven Kwan TO RECORD A SINGLE. Kwan is red-hot, producing 13 singles across his last 10 games and logging a single in 72 % of all contests this year. His road rate is even better, hitting safely in 81 % of away games. Facing righty Brady Singer, Kwan boasts a .391 average over 23 career at-bats and is slashing .339 vs right-handers in 2025. Wade summed it up simply: 'He’s a singles machine in a matchup he’s already solved.'

Rob Donaldson put four units on Kyle Manzardo—three units over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs and one unit to homer. He pointed to Singer’s repeated issues with loud contact and called Great American Ball Park ‘Coors of the Midwest.’ Manzardo is sporting a 50% fly-ball rate with a 95 mph average EV in May, metrics Rob believes will play perfectly in 80-degree weather with a slight jet stream to right. He framed Manzardo as the Guardians’ best combination of plate patience and raw pop, projecting 4–5 trips to the dish out of the two-hole.

Rob Donaldson fired one unit on Gabriel Arias to hit a home run in Great American Ball Park. He noted Brady Singer’s whiff rate has cratered to 18% (career-low) while his barrel rate has spiked to 11.4%. With the wind blowing out and GABP already the No. 2 HR park in Statcast Park Factors, Rob expects Singer’s 43% hard-hit rate to translate into long balls. Arias has posted a .286 ISO versus right-handers this season and grades top-five on the Guardians in average exit velocity. Rob called the spot ‘tailor-made’ for a cheap Arias bomb.

The computer makes Cincinnati a slight favorite (6-5) even though sportsbooks hang the Reds at +105. That 4-5% edge is driven by park context and pitching volatility. Great American Ball Park boosts right-hand power by 14%, and the Reds’ lefty-mashing middle of the order faces Tanner Bibee, whose 3.80 ERA masks a concerning 1.6 HR/9 and sub-20% strikeout rate on the road. Brady Singer’s 4.97 ERA looks ugly, but his 14% swinging-strike rate and 50% ground-ball clip suggest positive regression. With the Guardians bullpen stretched after three straight high-leverage nights, Data Skrive flags Cincinnati as a live home dog and likes the full-game over 9 in the most hitter-friendly environment on the slate.

Savio recommended Guardians ML at ‑125, hinging on Tanner Bibee’s recent dominance—2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last four outings—which has pushed him to the top tier of AL pitchers this month. He highlighted Cincinnati’s slide: nine losses in their last 12, five regulars batting under .200 over the past week, and star Elly De La Cruz managing just a .596 May OPS. Brady Singer, who started 4-0 with a 3.24 ERA, has cratered for 11 runs in 8⅓ innings (11.88 ERA) over his last two starts versus Houston and Atlanta. With Bibee locked in and the Reds reeling, Savio sees clear value on Cleveland.

Greg Peterson grabbed the Reds at +110, pricing Cincinnati as -131 favorites himself. He argued that Brady Singer’s surface ERA (4.97) masks how well he has pitched at Great American Ball Park, where he owns a 2.82 ERA versus 7.45 on the road and a 4.26 FIP overall. Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee is far shakier than his 3.80 ERA suggests, giving up 1.8 HR/9 and 3.2 BB/9 en route to a bloated 5.53 fielding independent number. With the superior starter in his preferred park, Peterson thinks the wrong team is favored.