While acknowledging Houston’s No. 1-ranked defense, Prisco grabbed Tennessee +7, predicting Mike Vrabel’s squad keeps things tight after a bye week. He noted that the Texans offense, likely still hampered by C.J. Stroud’s recent shoulder issue, has posted just 5.1 yards per play over its last three contests. Conversely, the Titans defense has allowed only four offensive touchdowns in its past four games. Prisco called for a 23-19 Texans victory but believes the divisional familiarity and Tennessee’s rest advantage make the touchdown spread too generous to pass up.

Brent Sobleski laid the 7.5 with Houston, arguing the Texans own the NFL’s No. 1 defense and a front four capable of ruining rookie QB Cam Ward’s day regardless of whether C.J. Stroud or Davis Mills starts. He pointed to last week’s demolition of Jacksonville as proof the defense can carry the cover and dismissed Tennessee’s extra rest, calling the matchup a trench mismatch in Houston’s favor.

Scott Kellen saw value grabbing Tennessee +6. Houston will again start Davis Mills for the injured C.J. Stroud and is only 1-3 straight up on the road. While the Titans have struggled to cover, Kellen’s model makes the game Texans 20-17, implying a field-goal spread. He recommended Titans +6 as the sharper side.

Jim Sannes took the Under 74.5 receiving yards for Nico Collins at -114. Collins exploded for 136 yards on 15 targets last week with Davis Mills, but the circumstances flip here: Houston are 5.5-point road favorites, winds are moderate, and Tennessee’s rush defense is soft enough that the Texans can lean on the ground game rather than force Mills into high volume. Last week’s garbage-time spike came while trailing by three scores; a positive script plus backup-QB efficiency concerns make 75 yards a tall ask, so Sannes prefers the under.

Ben Solak hammered UNDER 15.5 Tennessee points, calling Houston’s defense "truly dominant." The Texans allow just 1.44 points per drive—13th-best of 320 units over the past decade—and now face a shaky Titans line protecting an overwhelmed quarterback. With Jeffery Simmons (knee) unlikely to return, Solak expects Houston’s improved ground game to shorten the contest and a backup-QB game script to keep the pedal down defensively. He views the Titans’ total as a safer fade than laying Texans -5.5.

Everett laid 6.5 with Houston despite C.J. Stroud likely sitting. He cites Tennessee’s 1-8 record and second-worst yards-per-play offense as evidence the Titans will struggle to score on the Texans’ “outstanding” defense. Houston has won four of six since an 0-3 start and shown improved offensive balance. Though he expects a tighter game than the Week-4 26-0 blowout, Everett is confident the Texans win by at least a touchdown behind their defense and run game.

Despite swearing off Tennessee earlier in the season, Logan is taking Titans +7.5. He is effectively fading Houston, which needed a miracle finish to beat Jacksonville and may again be without C.J. Stroud (concussion). The Texans leave home after three straight in Houston and face a potential look-ahead/short-week sandwich with Buffalo on deck. Tennessee comes off a bye that let interim coach Mike McCoy patch an offense and get injured starters back. Logan highlighted a mismatch in the trenches: the Titans rank 6th in QB-hit rate and 13th in sacks (22) and could feast on a Texans offensive line possibly missing two starters. He cited their Week 9 performance—six sacks and a pick-six versus the Chargers—as evidence the pass rush can disrupt a backup QB and keep this AFC South clash close.

MacMillan laid 7.5 with Houston even with C.J. Stroud likely sidelined, arguing the Texans’ defense alone can cover against a Tennessee team he calls the NFL’s absolute basement. The Titans are last in DVOA, Net Yards per Play and EPA per play, and there is a sizable gap to the next-worst club. Houston’s stop unit remains top-tier, and MacMillan says there are ‘few teams he wouldn’t lay this number on’ versus Tennessee.