Liam Picks Fights told listeners to forget the –400 money-line and attack Ikram Aliskerov in the round markets instead. He noted that Aliskerov has cashed five of his last six wins inside the first eight minutes—Warlley Alves (R1), Phil Hawes (R1) and a pre-UFC kimura all coming early—so books hanging plus money on R1 or R2 are the best way to squeeze value out of a massive favorite. Liam’s confidence stems from Aliskerov’s underrated takedown defense: he stuffed every Chimaev shot before the KO and rarely concedes top position unless it is Brendan Allen on his back. That nullifies what he called the “Muniz cheat code”—an opportunistic back-take leading to a quick arm-bar. Because cardio remains Muniz’s glaring hole and his kickboxing is “GM3 level at best,” Liam thinks Muniz’s only real path is a slick submission, a prop still floating between +900 and +1000. His final card: shop Aliskerov R1/R2 plus money and sprinkle Muniz by sub as insurance on the lone upset avenue.

Jim Malaro called Aliskerov–Muniz a classic UFC “thank-you” matchup meant to springboard Ikram after he accepted a short-notice beating from Robert Whittaker. Malaro said Aliskerov should obliterate Muniz inside two rounds and likes both the Aliskerov ITD (-140) and Round 1/2 props. His case: Muniz’s reputation rests on a fading Jacare submission and a grapple-free decision over Uriah Hall, but since then he has been choked by Brendan Allen, ground-and-pounded by Paul Craig, and somehow eked a split over Jun-Yong Park while landing only 12 significant strikes in 15 minutes. Muniz’s takedown accuracy has plummeted to 28 % across his last three bouts, and his cardio cratered after the first five minutes in each. Aliskerov stuffs 80 % of takedowns, owns a collegiate-level sambo background, and fires straight lefts that generate 1.2 knockdowns per 15 minutes. With Muniz’s only weapon—top-side jiu-jitsu—neutralized, Malaro expects Aliskerov to sprawl, make Muniz strike, and uncork combinations that end the fight before the midpoint.

The Weasle called this a ‘stylistic nightmare’ for Andre Muniz and forecasted Ikram Aliskerov by first-round KO. Aliskerov owns a massive technical edge on the feet—crisper boxing, heavier power and better defense—and pairs it with what the tout labeled ‘absolutely insane’ takedown defense. Because Muniz’s wins hinge on securing top position for his elite BJJ, The Weasle expects those shots to be stuffed and Aliskerov to land a fight-ending bomb early, rebounding from the Robert Whittaker setback while adding another point to the Dagestan-vs-Brazil rivalry ledger.

Millz Young said Ikram Aliskerov is worth the steep −600 price because Muniz has turned into a predictable single-leg spammer who just holds position once on top. Millz reminded listeners Muniz shot eight takedowns against the Iron Turtle and still did almost nothing with them, calling the style "old-school Damien Maia without the finishes." By contrast, Aliskerov owns clear striking superiority, real power in both hands, and has defended 78 % of the takedowns he has faced in the UFC. Even coming off a loss to Robert Whittaker, Millz noted the promotion still treats Aliskerov like a future contender, lining him as a 6-to-1 favorite at open before money briefly pushed it to −700. He expects Muniz to get desperate after his first failed shot, walk into a counter, and believes the inside-the-distance prop or the KO/TKO prop is a far better way to attack this fight than laying the moneyline juice.

Bisping predicted Ikram Aliskerov will be “too much” for Andre Muniz even after that brutal 1:49 knockout loss to Robert Whittaker. He reminded listeners Aliskerov was a 15-1 destroyer with Dagestani Sambo credentials, an 81 % finish rate and a plus-3 takedown differential before stepping in on short notice against a former champ. Muniz’s A-level jiu-jitsu is real—nine career submissions and the famous Jacare Souza arm-snap—but recent TKO losses to Paul Craig and rear-naked choke to Brendan Allen exposed durability and wrestling flaws; Muniz defends takedowns at only 37 %. Bisping expects Aliskerov to test the chin early with straight lefts, then change levels and punish from top where Muniz wilts under heavy elbows. He advised parlaying Aliskerov money-line and sprinkling KO/TKO because the Dagestani ground-and-pound could finish before Muniz hunts an armbar.

Gumby Vreeland said Aliskerov is worth the chalk (-500 range) because the entire Muniz game hinges on securing takedowns that simply will not be there. Vreeland noted Aliskerov’s Dagestani-style wrestling background and 90% UFC takedown-defense rate, pointing out Muniz has landed just 1 of his last 12 attempts against competent wrestlers. On the feet Aliskerov throws 3× the volume and owns a +1.8 significant-strike differential, while Muniz is negative in that metric. Unless Aliskerov ‘fights like an idiot’ and voluntarily grapples, Vreeland expects Muniz to be forced into a pure striking match he cannot win, making the favorite a safe money-line piece or parlay anchor.

Cody Saftic argued that bookmakers have overpriced violence in Aliskerov-Muniz, making the near pick-em over 1.5 rounds the sharper side. While Aliskerov has finished his last four opponents in Round 1, those wins came against Worley Alves, Phil Hawes and other low-level foes. Muniz, by contrast, has never been knocked down in ten UFC appearances and has yet to be finished inside seven and a half minutes— even Brendan Allen and Paul Craig needed extended mauling before sealing subs or TKOs. Saftic highlighted Muniz’s cardio collapse as the actual failure point; his chin and submission defense hold until late Round 2. Given that both Paul Craig and Allen required prolonged ground exchanges and that Muniz absorbed 14 minutes on Uriah Hall’s back without a finish, Cody expects the first seven-plus minutes to play out on the feet with Muniz still intact. With Aliskerov’s inside-distance prop heavily juiced and the total sitting at –125, Saftic prefers betting the over 1.5, predicting a finish only once Muniz gases midway through Round 2 or later.

Paul Shaughnessy is laying the steep –500 on Ikram Aliskerov, arguing the Russian’s skill set and trajectory dwarf a fading Andre Muniz. Aliskerov’s only losses came via uppercuts from Khamzat Chimaev and Robert Whittaker—an attack Muniz rarely throws. Paul conceded Ikram’s takedown defense isn’t bulletproof but doubts Muniz, now 35 and 1-2 in his last three, maintains the explosiveness to chain-wrestle. Since submitting Jacare in 2021, Muniz has: • Spent 14 minutes on Uriah Hall’s back without a finish • Been out-grappled and rear-naked-choked by Brendan Allen • Eaten ground-and-pound from Paul Craig • Needed 11 takedowns to eke past Jun-Yong Park while landing just 17 significant strikes. Shaughnessy sees eroded cardio, durability, and offensive urgency—qualities Aliskerov exploits by marching forward with power boxing and sambo trips of his own. Because Aliskerov’s last four wins all ended in Round 1, Paul may sprinkle the KO/SUB round-one markets but is comfortable parlaying the money line, calling a Muniz upset “the only thing that could ruin the parlay leg”.

Kunath dismissed Andre Muniz as "off the cliff at 34" and backed Ikram Aliskerov for a violent finish. Aliskerov’s only career losses came to Khamzat Chimaev and Robert Whittaker—both via perfectly‑timed uppercuts that Muniz never throws. Muniz’s vaunted jiu‑jitsu is useless if he cannot secure takedowns, and Kunath noted Aliskerov’s 85% TDD along with explosive hips that stuffed Whittaker twice before the KO. On the feet Aliskerov lands 5.1 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy, while Muniz has been out‑landed in three straight bouts and shows a declining gas tank. Kunath projected a walk‑off right hand inside seven minutes and recommended the Aliskerov KO/TKO prop (-135) as a parlay anchor and must‑own DFS play for early‑finish bonuses.

MMA Guru projected Ikram Aliskerov to finish Andre Muniz early in the second round. Guru called Muniz’s takedown entries "obvious and slow," noting that the once‑hyped grappler has looked increasingly one‑dimensional and is coming off demoralizing losses. Aliskerov, fresh from a short‑notice battle with Robert Whittaker, should easily sprawl on Muniz’s telegraphed shots, then punish him with crisp straight punches once the grappling threat is neutralized. Guru highlighted Aliskerov’s superior athleticism, quicker hands, and Dagestani wrestling base as decisive edges. He urged bettors to hit Aliskerov inside‑the‑distance props, with round‑2 KO/TKO his preferred angle.

Bedtime MMA forecasted Ikram Aliskerov to bounce back with a knockout over Andre Muniz. He acknowledged past doubts about Aliskerov after the Robert Whittaker loss but maintained Muniz is not the stylistic threat to expose him. Muniz was "TKO’d by Paul Craig in a year that starts with 202," got out‑grappled by Brendan Allen, and struggled with Jung‑Yong Park— red flags against Aliskerov’s Dagestani combat‑sambo base. Bedtime sees Aliskerov’s faster, more diverse striking—flying knees and heavy left hooks—finding the chin before Muniz drags the fight deep. If it hits Round 3 he concedes Muniz could edge a decision, yet he firmly backs Aliskerov’s early power and adequate defensive wrestling to end matters inside two.