Sean Zerillo prices Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues at –260 but bettors can still find –192 to –200, which he calls fair up to –225. Rodrigues is two inches taller and carries the kind of pocket power Jack Hermansson cannot match. Zerillo is not worried about Hermansson’s jab-and-kick range game because the Norwegian lacks knockout pop, meaning Rodrigues can march inside and force exchanges. Hermansson owns excellent first-layer takedown defense, so Zerillo expects a striking-heavy fight where Rodrigues’ pressure and durability shine. Because 12 of Rodrigues’ 15 UFC bouts have ended inside the distance, Zerillo is also adding his Inside-the-Distance prop at +140 (projected +135) as a correlated kicker in case Robocop hurts or melts Hermansson before cardio becomes a concern.

Matty Betss locked Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues by decision (+220) as leg two of his 34-to-1 cycle parlay. He trusts Jack Hermansson’s durability after seeing the Swede survive early hell against Joe Pyfer before storming back late. Matty expects Rodrigues to land a knockdown or two in the first 10 minutes but believes Hermansson’s footwork and defensive grappling keep him from getting subbed or pounded out. With only three of Robocop’s 16 pro wins going to the judges, Betss argued the modest +220 tag screams hidden value—odds-makers know Hermansson is hard to finish in a three-rounder.

Matty Betss recommended betting Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues to win by decision at +220, arguing the prop is mispriced. He noted Rodrigues faded late in his five-round bout with Jared Cannonier, but this weekend’s fight is only three rounds and Robocop’s nutrition and weight-cut issues have reportedly been ironed out. Betss expects Rodrigues to bank Rounds 1 and 2 behind his striking and physicality. Jack Hermansson’s 56% strike-defense rate, durable chin, and smart grappling game (he survived and beat Joe Pyfer) make a finish unlikely, so a 29-28—or even 30-27—scorecard in Rodrigues’ favor is Betss’s most probable outcome.

Madlab Michael Lurato said the +180 underdog price on Jack Hermansson is worth firing because the matchup plays into the Norwegian’s grind-heavy style. Lurato noted Gregory “Hobocop” Rodrigues owns legit BJJ credentials and nuclear power, but he rarely leans on his grappling and instead forces wild pocket brawls that drain his gas tank. Tape shows Rodrigues absorbing 5.55 significant strikes per minute and being knocked out twice in his last five—evidence, Lurato argued, that these wars are steadily eroding his durability. By contrast Hermansson keeps exchanges clean, owns a 1.70 takedown-landed rate with top-control heavy hips, and is happy to slow a fight down once he gets on top. Lurato expects Rodrigues to win the optics early, then fade when Hermansson’s clinch trips and half-guard pressure start banking control time. With Hermansson’s cardio edge and safer shot selection, Madlab prefers the money-line dog and sprinkled decision props at +350 in case Rodrigues survives the late squeeze.

MMA Guru sided with Gregory Rodrigues to finish Jack Hermansson inside two rounds. He pointed to Hermansson’s long layoff and low-pressure, kick-and-flinch style as a poor formula against Rodrigues, who attacks with layered combinations—uppercut into left hook—and is willing to brawl. Guru noted that Rodrigues fought competitively with Jared Cannonier before breaking late, while Hermansson was TKO’d by Cannonier in one. On the mat, Guru trusts Rodrigues’ BJJ black belt to neutralize the traditional Hermansson top game, removing the Swede’s safety valve. Because Rodrigues has returned quickly after losses and kept sharpening his striking variety, Guru likes the favorite’s momentum and suggests playing the KO/TKO prop rather than money-line chalk.

Claudia Bellofatto hammered Jack Hermansson +3.5 rounds at even money, arguing the spread is tailor-made for a veteran who rarely gets finished. She pointed to Hermansson’s last outing—five high-pace rounds with Joe Pyfer—where he absorbed 120 significant strikes, stuffed 80 % of takedowns and still closed strongest, proving his gas tank is fine after a year layoff. Bellofatto expects Gregory Rodrigues to “burn out” just as he did versus Cannonier and others: the Brazilian starts like a bonfire, but his output drops sharply once he’s forced to shoot or absorb calf-kicks. Hermansson has a two-inch reach advantage, a quick jab, slick lateral movement and opportunistic top control that should bank at least one round. That means the +3.5 cashes on any 29-28 scorecard—and Bellofatto even sprinkled a late submission because a gassed Rodrigues leaves his neck in transitions. Spread first, sprinkle finish, but fade Rodrigues’ cardio either way.

Danny Brasco grabbed Jack “The Joker” Hermansson at +3.5 rounds on the judge’s scorecard spread, meaning the ticket cashes if Hermansson wins outright or loses 29-28 or better. Brasco expects Hermansson’s veteran savvy—lateral movement, calf-kicks, quick jab and opportunistic takedowns—to frustrate the explosive but occasionally one-dimensional Gregory Rodrigues in the larger pay-per-view octagon. He reminded listeners that Rodrigues slowed noticeably when forced to work against Jared Cannonier and others, while Hermansson showed against Joe Pyfer that he can survive early power, make adjustments and surge late. Given Hermansson’s durability (only two stoppage losses since 2017) and his ability to bank a round with wrestling, Brasco sees the plus-money spread as safer than a money-line sprinkle and a creative way to fade Rodrigues’ feast-or-famine style.

Kunath took a shot on Jack “The Joker” Hermansson, predicting an upset decision over Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues. He highlighted Hermansson’s superior lateral movement, marathon cardio, and 58% takedown defense that historically discourages opponents from wrestling. Rodrigues, a BJJ world champion, lacks elite footwork; Kunath expects him to chase and slow as Hermansson circles, sticks sharp jab-kick combos, and mixes opportunistic double-legs of his own. In past fights Rodrigues resorted to wrestling to slow slick movers (Armen Petrosyan, Christian Leroy Duncan), a tactic Kunath says is less likely to succeed against Hermansson, who rarely concedes top position and averages 1.6 reversals per 15 minutes. Should the bout reach Round 3, Kunath believes Rodrigues’ output dips while Hermansson’s pace and reads improve, leading to a clear final frame and a 29-28 or 30-27 nod on the cards. The money-line plus price and decision prop both made his betting card.

Jeff Fox laid –188 on Gregory ‘Robocop’ Rodrigues, fading a 37-year-old Jack Hermansson who has fought only once since December 2022 and cannot string together back-to-back wins. Rodrigues is four years younger, two inches taller, and the far heavier hitter with 10 KOs in 16 victories. Fox pointed to the Brazilian’s superior volume (out-landing foes by 0.65 sig-strikes/min) and underrated top game—Rodrigues owns the better takedown accuracy and submission rate in UFC stats. He expects Hermansson’s stick-and-move approach to crumble once Robocop forces clinch exchanges, and he forecasts either a mid-fight knockout or ground-and-pound finish. Fox recommended pairing the money-line with Rodrigues ITD props for plus-money exposure.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed Jack Hermansson at +180, calling the matchup a rerun of the Joe Pyfer upset. Hermansson (24-8) may be 37, but Vreeland praised the ‘Joker’s’ discipline: he refuses to indulge brawlers, sticks to rangy jab-kick patterns, and mixes level changes whenever opponents swing big. The Norwegian owns a +1.40 strike differential, 11 UFC wins, and a proven ability to bank control minutes when rounds get grimy. Vreeland doubts Gregory Rodrigues can win without the chaotic pocket exchanges that normally power ‘Robocop’s’ 10 knockouts. If Hermansson forces a measured kick-boxing and clinch fight, Vreeland expects the favorite to swing wide, get mat returned, and drop a frustrating decision. He suggested money-line or the Hermansson by decision prop for larger returns.

Sniper named Jack Hermansson his official "Kill Shot"—the under-owned flier he believes can win someone a DraftKings GPP at UFC 317. At just $7,400, Hermansson sits in a salary tier everyone is skipping because Gregory Rodrigues is the trendy knockout play, and the matchup is only three rounds. Sniper expects that ownership gap to create massive leverage; if Hermansson wins, even a modest 90-point score would 12x salary and vault him onto the optimal lineup. He reminded listeners that the Norwegian averages right around that mark (99 DK points) in three-round victories, owns 80 % takedown defence, and can weaponize cardio to out-volume a fading Rodrigues late. The plan is to be meaningfully overweight on Hermansson while letting the field chase Rodrigues’ highlight-reel upside at a much higher cost.

Monk said Jack Hermansson is one of the best salary-savers on the UFC 317 DraftKings slate at just $7,400. He noted Hermansson’s three-round wins average 99 DK points, so a decision victory would likely 13x his salary. Monk expects that outcome often because Hermansson owns 80 % takedown defence, lands 5.06 sig. strikes per minute, and limits opponents to 3.69 per minute—defensive numbers that are nearly three times better than Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues, who absorbs 5+ per minute. Rodrigues’ resume worries Monk: Jun-Yong Park was piecing him up before getting stunned, Chidi Njokuani nearly forced a doctor stoppage, and Bruno Ferreira flatlined him. Monk believes the Norwegian’s better cardio lets him snatch Rounds 2 and 3 while Robocop’s porous defence and tendency to fade late create finishing or volume-win upside. Because Rodrigues will carry ownership due to knockout buzz and an $8,800 tag, Monk plans to be overweight on Hermansson and underweight on Robocop, calling the betting line “way too wide” at +185.

Bedtime MMA sided with Jack Hermansson to grind out a 29-28 decision over Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues. He argued Hermansson’s stellar 78% takedown-defence— showcased when Joe Pyfer went 0-for-6— will mute Rodrigues’ best path, forcing an extended kick-boxing match where Hermansson’s jab, awkward head-movement and higher pace should pile up volume. The tout thinks Rodrigues’ cardio collapse against Jared Cannonier and his tendency to look sluggish outside of explosive bursts will surface once the takedowns are stuffed. Hermansson’s ability to slip, counter and immediately break the clinch will make Rodrigues whiff big power shots and gas, letting “The Joker” pull away late with stick-and-move combinations. Betting angles mentioned: Hermansson ML, Hermansson by Decision, live-bet Hermansson after Round 1 if Rodrigues empties the tank early.