Garofolo endorsed Jacksonville at –112 on FanDuel after the Dimers algorithm handed the Jags a 57.4% win probability (2.5% edge). Jacksonville already beat Houston 17-10 and now catches the Texans without C.J. Stroud (concussion). Davis Mills has failed to top 150 passing yards in three straight relief outings, and although Houston’s defense is top-six against the run and first in completion rate allowed, the model still leans Jacksonville while projecting the game total (37.5) to sneak under. With Nick Chubb banged up, Woody Marks is penciled in for a modest 49 rushing yards and 29% TD odds, reinforcing Garofolo’s view that Houston’s offense lacks explosiveness in Stroud’s absence.

Burrell called Jaguars –1 “almost too polite” with Houston forced to start Davis Mills while C.J. Stroud sits in concussion protocol. Mills may be functional, but Burrell argued he chops Houston’s ceiling in a matchup where Jacksonville can push pace with Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and newly-signed Jakobi Meyers stretching the field. Houston’s defense ranks bottom-10 in explosive run rate allowed and has been prone to coverage busts—burdens that only grow if its offense stalls early. Jacksonville is 4-4 ATS but owns the healthier roster edge; Houston sits 3-5 ATS and has failed to cover three straight divisional games. Because the spread is essentially a pick’em, Burrell treats it like a moneyline play on the better quarterback and healthier offense.

Will Hill laid -125 on the Jaguars moneyline. Houston’s season took a hit when C.J. Stroud left last week with a shoulder injury; backup Davis Mills will start a must-win game for a 3-5 club. Hill trusts Trevor Lawrence and a healthier Jacksonville offense to outpace a Texans unit missing its engine, effectively ending Houston’s playoff hopes.

Taking Houston as a 1-point home dog, Tafur pointed to Trevor Lawrence’s sharp decline against the Texans: 8.2 yards per attempt in two 2023 meetings but only 5.2 across the three games since. He brushed off C.J. Stroud’s absence, arguing Jacksonville’s offense—not Houston’s quarterback situation—is the bigger concern, making the Texans his side.

Tom Blair warned that Trevor Lawrence’s skid is set to worsen in Houston. Lawrence is averaging fewer than 7.0 yards per pass for the first time since 2022 and logged a 56.5 rating in the Jaguars’ narrow 17-10 Week 3 win over the Texans. Blair noted Jacksonville’s offense remains inconsistent, Brian Thomas Jr. has been ruled out, and Jakobi Meyers may need time to acclimate while Derek Stingley Jr. patrols the boundary. With Houston’s defense "further solidified" and Jacksonville’s softening, Blair backed the Texans at +110 and views Lawrence as a shaky QB2.

Aaron Schatz forecasted Dalton Schultz to score his first TD of 2025 with Davis Mills replacing the concussed C.J. Stroud. Jacksonville ranks 25th in DVOA vs tight ends and gives up an adjusted 78 yards per game to the position (31st). Mills has historically targeted TEs on 22% of attempts, and with perimeter corners Tyson Campbell & Co. blanketing wideouts, Schatz likes Schultz for red-zone looks and lists him as an anytime-TD bet at +260 and a viable streaming tight end.

Sascha Paruk backed the model’s call on Jacksonville +1.5, pointing out the software’s 6-2 ATS mark on Jaguars action compared to a middling 4-4 split on Houston. The algorithm’s broader numbers are ugly, but this matchup falls into the select bucket where its past reads have been reliably profitable.

MacMillan continued fading Jacksonville, noting Trevor Lawrence ranks 32nd among starters in EPA+CPOE. Houston outranks the Jags across the board—9th in overall DVOA versus 17th, and 2nd in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. He believes the market treating a 1.5-point home spread as a neutral-field coin flip is wrong, so he laid ‑1.5 at ‑105 (FanDuel).