Erik Beimfohr said Trevor Lawrence is an automatic click at his current cost—the fifth-cheapest locked-in starter in Best Ball drafts—because every box for a 2019-Dak‐style leap is checked. New OC Liam Cohen just coaxed a career season out of Baker Mayfield, and Beimfohr thinks the same play-action heavy scheme paired with two potential superstar wideouts (Brian Thomas Jr. and two-way phenom Travis Hunter) unlocks Lawrence’s ceiling. Add deep threat Deami Brown, reliable TE Brenton Strange, and a three-headed backfield (Tank Bigsby, Bhayshul Tuten, Travis Etienne) that should keep drives on schedule, and Jacksonville suddenly looks like a concentrated, efficient offense. The Jaguars’ defense projects bottom-half and their division is soft—outside of Houston—setting up weekly shootouts and a juicy Week-17 correlation game against Indianapolis. Beimfohr believes 4,800 passing yards and 30-35 total TDs are firmly in play, yet drafters can still stack Lawrence cheaply from multiple angles, making him his favorite upside quarterback bet of 2025 tournaments.

Erik Beimfohr said Trevor Lawrence is the "skeleton key" to 2025 Jaguar builds because the market has pushed him down to the fifth-cheapest locked-in starter on Underdog. Beimfohr compared the setup to Baker Mayfield’s 2024 leap and Dak Prescott’s 2019 breakout, arguing Lawrence can post something like 4,800 yards and 30–35 touchdowns at his current QB18 price. The reasons: a weak AFC South schedule, a likely below-average Jacksonville defense that will force shoot-outs, and a weapon set highlighted by rookie alpha Brian Thomas Jr. and two-way menace Travis Hunter, with D’Ami Brown and Brenton Strange keeping drives alive. He loves that drafters can stack Lawrence multiple ways—Thomas in the 4th, Hunter in the 7th, Strange late, or even naked if the wideouts get sniped—while still grabbing discounted outs in the backfield (Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, or Bachel Tootin). The Week-17 home game versus the Colts gives the stack a tournament-winning ceiling, making Lawrence a priority click whenever the quarterback room dries up.

While building out a heavy Jacksonville portfolio (Lawrence, Bigsby, Brenton Strange), PPRTyler said it would be "pretty ideal" to add Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell at the next turn. His logic is simple best-ball playoff correlation: Week-17 pits the Colts against the Jaguars, so low-priced Colts pass catchers give his Lawrence stacks an inexpensive bring-back that could turn the game into a shootout. Tyler emphasized that squeezing in those two Colts would complete the game stack without forcing him to spend early-round capital, making them attractive upside picks in the double-digit rounds.

Billy Jones encouraged drafters to flip the board by selecting Jonathan Taylor at the 2-3 turn—jumping him over De’Von Achane and Derrick Henry—to correlate directly with Jacksonville pass stacks. Jones noted that Taylor and the Jaguars’ three wideouts (Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis) sit on opposite ends of the draft board, meaning very few teams will land the full Colts-Jags correlation. Moving Taylor up only bypasses two running backs who are in timeshares, while Taylor owns an unquestioned 80-plus-percent opportunity share and indoor home field in Week 17. Billy believes the unique construction will come in under 5 % ownership but still carries top-three positional upside if Trevor Lawrence drags the pace and forces Indy into a shoot-out. He is willing to take Taylor as early as pick 15 whenever he already has a Jacksonville receiver in Round 1.