Billy Ward locked in Jake Matthews at +140 (would play to +120) after Chidi Njokuani missed weight for the second straight fight, tipping the scales at 171.5 despite pushing his cut to the absolute limit. Ward loves fading this specific type of miss—when a fighter drains himself to within half a pound, durability and cardio almost always suffer. Njokuani is 36, has needed a split versus Reece McKee and a tepid decision over Jared Gooden, and again looked gaunt on the scale. Matthews, ten years younger, is the sturdier athlete and carries the clear grappling upside; Ward expects him to take over once Chidi’s early power fades. The plan is two-fold: pre-fight exposure down to +120 and an automatic live add after Round 1 when the Australian’s price should still be plus money but Njokuani’s gas tank has already begun to sputter. Ward believes Matthews wins this at better than 45 % long-term, particularly if he survives the first three minutes and starts stringing takedowns together.

Kunath is fading Chidi Njokuani after his second straight miss at the 170-lb mark, arguing a 6'3" 80-inch-reach striker cutting that low at age 36 is running on fumes. While Njokuani’s muay thai is "extremely crisp," Matthews is notoriously durable, owns the wrestling edge, and can neutralize Chidi’s length by clinching and dragging the fight to the mat. Kunath wants Matthews aggressive—pinning Njokuani to the fence, dirty-boxing, and stealing rounds late—and loves the plus-money price given Chidi’s obvious weight-cut deterioration.

Dan Tom said he is leaning to Chidi Njokuani on the near-pick’em money-line and may add a one-unit bet after Friday’s weigh-ins. Tom explained that he has ‘lost faith’ in Jake Matthews’ willingness to wrestle, noting Matthews has attempted just two takedowns in his last three appearances despite facing smaller, grappling-deficient foes like Andre Fialho and Diego Prado. The Australian’s failure to use his strongest skill makes him unreliable as an underdog. Meanwhile, the familiar narrative that Njokuani’s brutal cuts to 170 would haunt him at welterweight no longer holds up; Tom interviewed Njokuani back in 2019 when the fighter swore he would never return to 170, but the PI resources have made the cut smoother— Njokuani looks relaxed and healthy on social media instead of drawn out. Tom argued that if the weigh-in optics again show a comfortable Chidi while Matthews continues to ignore his wrestling, the even money price becomes ‘too tempting to pass,’ especially on a card starving for underdogs.

Michael Lurato encouraged listeners to grab Jake Matthews at +125, arguing the Aussie finally left his father’s small gym to cross-train at elite camps and is showing smarter fight IQ on a two-fight win streak. Lurato expects Matthews to lean on his underrated wrestling and top-pressure— tools Chidi Njokuani historically struggles with once taken down. He added that Njokuani’s brutal weight cut is a wild card; if the kickboxer looks drained at weigh-ins, Matthews’ path gets even clearer. Lurato believes a rinse-and-repeat takedown approach can bank rounds and avoid the striking exchanges where Chidi is most dangerous. Given the stylistic edge, improved coaching, and the attractive underdog number, Lurato called Matthews “one of the most live dogs on the card” and advised at least a small money-line stab.

MMA Guru predicted that Chidi Njokuani will score a round-two TKO over Jake Matthews. He argued that Matthews is far too one-dimensional—an "MMA boxer" who leans almost exclusively on his hands and rarely mixes in takedowns or kicks. When Matthews faces longer, technically sound kickers, Guru says "he very typically doesn’t have the best of performances," pointing to the three knockdowns he suffered against Matthew Semelsberger as proof that opponents with reach and power find openings. Njokuani, by contrast, is the rangier striker with vicious teeps, low kicks, knees, and clinch elbows that can punish Matthews from distance and in tight. Guru expects Njokuani to keep Matthews at kicking range early, frustrate him, then capitalize when Matthews lunges forward, landing a fight-ending shot in the clinch. He likes Njokuani inside-the-distance and specifically the round-2 TKO prop as the betting angle.

Jeff Fox also sided with Jake Matthews, emphasizing Chidi Njokuani’s chronic scale issues and unpredictable form. Njokuani has missed weight seven times and fighters who botch the cut generally lose, Fox reminded listeners. He expects Matthews to make the fight ugly—clinching, grinding, and leaning on the wrestling he has too often abandoned while enjoying striking success. Fox likes Matthews’ durability (only one KO loss in 28 fights) against Njokuani’s fast-fading power and thinks the Australian’s well-rounded skill set makes the minus-104 price tag a bargain. Exact bets he suggested: Matthews by decision for safety, or late-finish props to exploit Njokuani’s cardio dump.

Gumby Vreeland advised betting Jake Matthews at essentially pick-em odds, arguing Chidi Njokuani’s only realistic win condition is an early knockout. Vreeland noted that Njokuani’s gas tank routinely falls off after the opening three minutes and pointed to seven career weight misses—evidence he does not manage his body well. Matthews, by contrast, just went the full 15 with power striker Francisco Prado without conceding a takedown and previously out-boxed Phil Rowe. Vreeland downplayed Matthews’ recent losses, stressing they came against high-end wrestlers Michael Morales and Sean Brady; Chidi offers none of that threat. If Matthews secures even one first-round takedown, Vreeland expects him to smother a fatigued Njokuani the rest of the way, potentially finding a late finish. He recommends Matthews money-line or sprinkling R3/decision props while fading any Njokuani tickets that are not 1st-round KO.

Bedtime MMA sided with Chidi Njokuani by decision in what he calls a "very close" technical fight. The key edges: Njokuani is dropping from middleweight, giving him a noticeable size and physicality advantage, plus enough power to hurt durable opponents—he reminded listeners Njokuani floored Gregory Rodrigues and finished Elizeu Zaleski. Bedtime expects the former 185-pounder to mix clinch work—knees and elbows against the fence—to sap Jake Matthews, much like Njokuani did versus Jared Gooden. He questions Matthews’ fight-changing power and pointed out that Matthews was out-grappled by Matthew Semselsberger, hinting Njokuani’s inside game and damage output will play better with judges even in a closely contested bout.