MMA Guru sided with Khalil Roundtree Jr. to upset Jamahal Hill, citing two key edges: punishing calf-kicks against Hill’s predictable bounce rhythm and the health/timing disparity between the light heavyweights. Guru noted Hill is barely five months removed from a brutal TKO loss to Jiri Prochazka that broke his nose, yet he re-entered camp almost immediately to keep this booking after an initial postponement. Roundtree, on the other hand, absorbed his own beating from Alex Pereira last September but enjoyed a full nine-month recovery window. Guru believes Hill’s wide stance makes him an inviting target for inside-and-outside low kicks that will sap his forward pressure by the second round. Once Hill’s mobility is compromised, Roundtree’s hand speed and Thai-style rhythm combinations should dictate exchanges. While acknowledging Hill’s underrated boxing could flip the script if he bullies forward early, Guru ultimately projects Roundtree to accumulate enough damage to either earn a late stoppage or at minimum a 29-28 decision, making Roundtree ML and Roundtree KO/TKO live dogs.

Monk backed Jamahal Hill as the superior DraftKings play at $7.8K despite Roundtree entering as a slight betting favorite. He noted that neither man has ever completed a UFC takedown (27 combined fights), so the bout projects as a pure striking match where Hill’s 7.0 significant strikes landed per minute dwarf Roundtree’s 3.7. Hill’s cardio metrics are also better: in fourth-round sample time he out-lands opponents 15.8 to 5.0 per minute, whereas Roundtree gets clobbered 13.9 to 3.0. Strength of schedule leans Hill—wins over Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira versus Roundtree’s split over Jacoby and a KO of Chris Daukus. Vegas expects a finish in rounds two or three (-215 under 3.5, yet ‑205 over 1.5), which neutralizes main-event bonus rounds, so Monk treats this like any other mid-tier fight and prefers the cheaper, higher-volume side. He projects a 100-plus DK score for Hill via cumulative striking or late KO and will be overweight in GPPs while keeping Roundtree exposure minimal hedge only.

Dan Tom acknowledged his long-time friendship with Khalil Rountree Jr. but said the tape still forces him to the Rountree side at –120. He highlighted Jamahal Hill’s chronic vulnerability to left hands—Hill has absorbed 62 of 79 significant strikes from the southpaw stance in his last two fights—and his near-nonexistent leg-kick defense (opponents land 78 % of attempts to the lead thigh). Tom argued that in a southpaw-southpaw matchup the fighter with the better lead hand usually wins, and Rountree’s telephone-pole jab and violent check hook have improved markedly since moving his camps to Thailand. He expects Rountree to puncture Hill’s lead leg early, forcing stationary exchanges where Rountree’s 4.67 significant strikes landed per minute and 62 % power-shot ratio translate into fight-ending damage. Tom’s official bet card includes Rountree moneyline, with a sprinkle on "Rountree by KO/TKO" at +180, citing Hill’s plodding footwork and lingering Achilles concerns as additional catalysts.

Madlab Michael Lurato said he is doubling down on Khalil Rountree Jr., this time specifying a fourth- or fifth-round knockout. Lurato believes Jamahal Hill is carrying serious mental baggage after back-to-back losses and an Achilles tear. He questioned whether Hill still trusts his lead leg or his chin, noting that Hill’s 43 % striking-defense rate and historically slow trigger (only 8.4 strike attempts per minute over his last two bouts versus 11.6 earlier in his career) have worsened since the injury. Madlab added that Hill’s recent tendency to fight “not to lose” will be fatal against Rountree’s unpredictable Muay Thai rhythm and 75 % career finish rate. He advised bettors to play either Rountree Moneyline (around –125) or Rountree Round 4/5 & KO props for plus-money, anticipating that Hill’s cardio and confidence fade in the championship frames.

Madlab Michael Lurato sided with Khalil Rountree at ‑125 and even sprinkled the KO prop. He contrasted Hill’s slick but predictable boxing combinations with Rountree’s "herky-jerky" Muay Thai rhythms developed in Thailand. That unpredictable cadence, coupled with 4.3 significant strikes landed per minute at a 62 % power-shot rate, makes Rountree difficult to time—especially for another southpaw who normally trains for orthodox looks. Hill has struggled to read unorthodox movement before (0-1-1 in southpaw-southpaw matchups), and Madlab believes the punches you don’t see are the ones that sleep you. Given Rountree’s 75 % finish rate and Hill’s 43 % striking defense, he expects Rountree to find a mid-fight knockout, recommending either the straight moneyline or Rountree Inside-the-Distance at plus money.

Kunath backed Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill to win by knockout sometime after the third round. He argued that Hill’s recent losses came against elite opponents—Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka—while Khalil Rountree has also been stopped and has taken far more cumulative damage. Kunath noted Hill’s natural feel for distance and combination punching, plus the fact that sharp money continues to flow Hill’s way despite social-media buzz on Rountree. He pointed out Rountree’s flat-footed defense against left hooks, Hill’s historically superior level of competition, and the five-round format favoring Hill’s cardio if he has indeed “hit the treadmill.” At plus money, Kunath sees value on Hill finding the finishing shot late and “getting back in the win column.”

Kunath backed Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill to win by knockout sometime after Round 3 despite the former champ opening at plus money. He acknowledged Hill’s stock has cratered after back-to-back KO losses to Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka, and conceded Khalil Rountree carries more one-shot power and far better calf kicks. The pick leans on contextual edges: Hill’s natural feel for distance and combination punching, his track record against elite names (Prochazka, Pereira, Glover Teixeira, Johnny Walker), and Rountree’s tendency to fade after absorbing damage—particularly the severe beating Pereira put on him when he unexpectedly won the first two rounds as a massive underdog. Kunath noted that public chatter favors Rountree, yet the betting handle continues to push money toward Hill, a tell that sharper action trusts Hill’s upside. He expects Hill’s straighter, faster punches to “touch up” Rountree from the outside, wear him down and eventually find the kill shot in the championship rounds, making Hill a worthwhile plus-money bet in both moneyline and KO props.

Kyzer Del Busto took the plus-money stab on former champ Jamahal Hill, arguing that Hill’s only setbacks came against current and former title-holders. Hill owns a three-inch edge in both height and reach, lands 7.06 sig-strikes per minute, and sports a +3.03 differential—far superior to Rountree’s –0.78. Kyzer acknowledged Hill’s back-to-back knockouts but pointed out that Rountree’s defense is even shakier (43% significant-strike defense) and he was finished by Pereira in round four after absorbing 88 head strikes. Hill’s straight right hand should beat Rountree’s looping left, and Kyzer expects the Chicago native to keep the fight at boxing range, pile up volume, and possibly score a late TKO, making the +110 money-line a buy.

Gumby faded Jamahal Hill and sided with Khalil Rountree Jr. He noted Hill has been violently finished in back-to-back outings by Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka—both inside two rounds—exposing porous defense (absorbs 4.00 sig-strikes per minute). Rountree, by contrast, went toe-to-toe with Pereira for two rounds and actually stole one on the cards before a late stoppage. Gumby called Hill a ‘one-speed brawler’ who struggles versus technical southpaws; Rountree’s Thai-style body kicks and left-hand counters should find the midsection easily. With Rountree carrying a +0.55 knockdown-rate and Hill’s chin trending downward, Gumby expects the Warhorse to land something mean and get Hill out of there inside 15 minutes.

Millz Young took the plus-115 underdog shot on Jamahal Hill, insisting the market is disrespecting a former champ with a proven gas tank. Hill averages 5.66 significant strikes per minute and pushes pace deep into fights, while Khalil Roundtree routinely slows after the first seven minutes and lands barely 3.8 strikes per minute. Millz expects Roundtree to hunt single-shot counters—mostly the low kick and overhand—but sees Hill’s 78-inch reach and constant jab-cross volume piling up damage and forcing Roundtree onto the back foot. If the bout reaches the championship rounds, Millz predicts Hill’s conditioning will create a second-gear surge, forecasting either a Round-4 TKO or a clear 48-47 decision. He advised bettors to split their stake between Hill’s moneyline and the Round-4/5 or decision double-chance prop that is hovering around +200.

Bedtime MMA circled Jamahal Hill as the clear betting side now that books have Khalil Rountree Jr. sitting around –200, making Hill a juicy 2-to-1 underdog. He called Rountree “one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC,” pointing out the Thai-boxing stylist’s resume tops out at a short-notice win over Anthony Smith and a moral-victory loss to Alex Pereira that bettors keep over-valuing. By contrast, Hill owns finishes of Glover Teixeira and Thiago Santos and has proven he can build volume as a fight drags on. Bedtime expects Hill’s crisp jab to reopen Rountree’s chronically damaged nose, then sustained body work to sap Rountree’s already shaky cardio. Once the output crash hits late round three or early round four, Hill should be able to pour on enough hooks to force a standing TKO with Rountree slumping against the fence. Recommended wagers: Hill money-line at plus money, Hill TKO, and round-3/4 props while the market continues to mis-price the matchup.

Bedtime MMA picked Jamahal Hill to survive an explosive first round from Khalil Rountree Jr. and score a Round 3-4 TKO. He acknowledged Rountree’s early-fight hand speed and southpaw power but emphasized the contender’s chronic cardio fade and lack of grappling reps across a resume whose best win is short-notice Anthony Smith. Hill, despite "waffle-house cook" footwork, showed he can build volume and accuracy as fights progress—evident in victories over Glover Teixeira and Thiago Santos and even stretches versus Jiri Prochazka. Bedtime predicted Hill will weaponize front kicks and knees to the body whenever they clinch, jab Rountree’s historically fragile nose, and pull the head to land uppercuts. Once Rountree’s output crashes, Hill walks him down for a ref-safety stoppage against the fence. Suggested wagers: Hill live-bet after Round 1, Hill TKO, or Hill Round 3/4 props.