Sean Zerillo recommended betting Jared Cannonier to land at least one takedown if the price is even money or better. Cannonier has quietly leaned on wrestling of late, posting four takedowns on Gregory Rodriguez, four on the notoriously hard-to-ground Marvin Vettori, and one on Nasruddin Imavov—despite being the lesser grappler on paper in each matchup. The matchup sets up well because Michael Page has shown porous defensive wrestling, surrendering two takedowns to Ian Garry and two to Kevin Holland, neither of whom is considered a dedicated wrestler. Zerillo would need roughly +200 to play the alternate line of 1.5 takedowns, but sees over 0.5 as “something that’s going to be there.” He also floated a same-game parlay combining a Cannonier takedown with a Page moneyline ticket, arguing both legs remain +EV based on his projections.

Sean Zerillo said he expects Michael “MVP” Page to record the first finish of his UFC career, most likely in the later rounds, against Jared Cannonier. Zerillo’s model makes Page a –210 favorite and he believes the market is still hanging a playable number. His conviction comes from Cannonier’s recent accumulation of damage: nearly stopped by Gregory Rodriguez before rallying, soaked up 159 significant strikes and four takedowns against Marvin Vettori, and ate extended ground-and-pound versus Kyle Bahio when the ref refused to step in. Zerillo thinks those wars have accelerated Cannonier’s decline even though the age gap is only three years. With Page’s unorthodox striking and length, Zerillo sees him eventually “finding the button” on the increasingly fragile Cannonier and likes pairing Page’s moneyline with other props for extra leverage.

Billy Ward’s favorite angle for Page–Cannonier is over 0.5 takedowns for Jared Cannonier at plus money. Ward noted Cannonier surprisingly shot four takedowns on Marvin Vettori, one on Nassourdine Imavov and even dragged BJJ ace Gregory Rodrigues down, proving he will wrestle when the matchup calls for it. Against the fleet-footed Michael “MVP” Page, Ward expects Cannonier to clinch or change levels early to neutralize the speed gap. One successful attempt cashes the ticket, and Ward would play the prop down to –110.

Danny Brasco grabbed Jared Cannonier at +165, arguing the line gives Cannonier just a 38 percent implied win rate despite his proven five-round gas tank and resume versus elite 185-ers (Adesanya, Strickland, Rodrigues). He acknowledged Michael “Venom” Page’s elusive footwork and welterweight highlight reel but questions MVP’s ceiling at middleweight after a flattering debut over Shara Magomedov, whose stock has since dropped. Brasco wants Cannonier to “sprint,” cut Page off with MMA Lab footwork, and let his notorious power speak, believing sustained pressure neutralizes Page’s matador game. He also flagged a market discrepancy: Cannonier +3.5 rounds sits at ‑165 (≈70 % win one round), suggesting the outright money-line may be undervalued.

TheWeasle faded the betting favourite Michael "Venom" Page and picked Jared Cannonier to win via third-round ground-and-pound. He pointed out Cannonier has leaned on wrestling in three of his last four bouts, including taking down Marvin Vettori multiple times. Against Page, a welterweight moving up who relies on elusive karate entries and has shown a shaky chin, Cannonier's heavyweight-carryover power and crushing inside-leg kicks are live. The analyst expects Cannonier to chop Page's legs to slow the movement, clinch when MVP over-extends, and drag him to the mat where Page is untested. One clean punch or a dominant top-control burst, TheWeasle says, will cash the underdog ticket.

Dan Tom leaned toward Jared Cannonier in his upcoming matchup, arguing the veteran’s durability plus John Crouch’s MMA Lab game plans give him the edge. Tom expects Cannonier to survive early pot-shot counters, force the fight to the barrier, and use judo-style foot sweeps and quick, "cheeky" takedowns instead of energy-draining mat returns. Those clinch pit-stops should slow the pace, let Cannonier rack up control minutes, and systematically wear his opponent out over five rounds— a script Tom believes covers Cannonier’s betting price and makes him a solid side.

Madlab Michael Lurato agreed Cannonier owns the clearest path – chaining clinch trips into top-side positions and unleashing his vicious ground-and-pound – but ultimately sided with Michael Page. Lurato argued that Page’s herky-jerk rhythm, explosive half-extension counters, and ability to “clear space so quick” create a uniquely frustrating cat-and-mouse fight. He noted Cannonier’s reaction time has slipped with age; once forced to chase, the former heavyweight tends to over-commit out of frustration, leaving openings for Page’s darts and straight rights. Unless Cannonier quickly corrals Page against the fence and dumps him, Lurato expects MVP to stay unchained on the outside, pile up points, and maybe produce a highlight finish. He is betting Page’s money-line and considering a sprinkle on Page by KO/TKO while acknowledging Cannonier by decision as the hedge if the wrestler sticks to takedowns.

Dan Tom laid out a case for backing Michael “Venom” Page at roughly –195 against Jared Cannonier. Tom stressed that Cannonier historically struggles with opponents who own a fast, accurate jab or who work from south-paw counters – citing Jan Blachowicz at 205, Israel Adesanya, and Sean Strickland as precedents. Page’s long, snappy lead hand fits that profile and should keep Cannonier at range. Tom also flagged durability concerns: Cannonier has been rocked, dropped, or finished in four of his last five bouts and was “jabbed up” for five rounds by Strickland in the fifth. With Cannonier now in his late thirties and coming off multiple knockdowns, Tom expects the speed and outside movement of MVP to carry the scorecards and possibly set up a late finish. He therefore recommended a straight money-line play on Page or coupling him in parlays rather than chasing the KO prop.

Welch predicted Jared Cannonier wins by decision over Michael "Venom" Page. He emphasized Cannonier’s heavy low kicks against Page’s sideways karate stance, saying “you feel it when he kicks your legs.” Welch also cited Cannonier’s granite cardio, experience across three weight classes, and a 3-2 run that includes a war with Gregory Rodrigues. Page’s counter-sniping scares him but he trusts Cannonier's pressure and leg damage to sway all three scorecards.

Sniper called Jared Cannonier a "first dog into every cash lineup" at just $7,500 on DraftKings. The bout is –225 to reach the judges, giving Cannonier a floor Sniper pegged around 20 points even in defeat. He noted Cannonier’s improving wrestling—four takedowns versus Marvin Vettori and a trip on Nassourdine Imavov—and a rising strike rate against defensively porous foes. With Page content to point-fight and averaging only 0.15 takedowns per five minutes, Sniper expects Cannonier to stay competitive, mix in level changes, and potentially steal a decision at +160 moneyline odds. The underdog pricing plus limited downside makes Cannonier a cash-game building block and a solid GPP pivot.

Monk said he will keep fading Michael “Venom” Page in DFS because the flashy Brit almost never turns his style into DraftKings points. Page averages only about 50 DK points in his UFC wins yet costs $8,700 this week. With the fight –225 to go the distance and Page attempting just 0.15 takedowns per five minutes, Monk sees no realistic path to 90-plus points. Page’s karate point-fighting means low strike volume, minimal control time, and virtually no grappling bonuses. Monk is still picking Page to win outright but called him a "big fade" in tournaments and cash, preferring to spend salary on fighters with finishing upside.

Jeff Fox also sided with Jared Cannonier as an underdog, stressing that Page is no longer “really dangerous at this point,” especially at middleweight. Fox noted Page actually attempts more takedowns per five minutes (0.71) than Cannonier on paper, yet doubts Page will shoot at all once Cannonier forces clinches. He thinks Cannonier carries the heavier hands, is far more powerful at 185, and can make the fight ugly if he mixes in even one or two takedowns. Fox reminded listeners that Page has never dealt with a physical grinder of Cannonier’s size, while Cannonier has repeatedly stopped bigger men at the weight. He recommends grabbing the dog price or looking at Cannonier ITD props.

Gumby Vreeland said to back Jared Cannonier at plus money because the matchup finally forces Michael “Venom” Page into a second phase. Page’s UFC win over Shara Bullet was a pure kick-boxing affair, but Cannonier is “real mean on the mat,” citing the Derek Brunson fight where Cannonier bounced Brunson’s head off the canvas with brutal ground-and-pound. Vreeland expects Cannonier to initiate takedowns even though he normally wrestles less than one per five minutes, arguing the quickest path is to turn this into a gritty clinch-and-top-control battle. Page has been forced to wrestle only once in recent years – Ian Garry won that way – and now he is up a full division to middleweight after spending his career at 170. Vreeland believes the extra 15 lb will sap Page’s trademark speed while Cannonier carries fight-changing power at 185. Add in Page’s limited submission defense and the tout sees a live underdog with both finishing upside and score-friendly control for DFS or prop bettors.

Gumby Vreeland is backing Jared Cannonier at around +150, arguing the market is overvaluing Michael ‘Venom’ Page’s win over Shara Magomedov, a pure stand-up bout tailor-made for Page. Cannonier owns heavyweight-class power, proven five-round cardio, and a willingness to clinch or wrestle—exactly the ingredients historically responsible for Page’s few losses. Vreeland expects Cannonier’s physicality to smother Page’s sideways stance, force pocket exchanges, and either land a knockout shot or bank grappling-heavy rounds, making the dog price attractive.

Matty Betss sided with Michael "MVP" Page, arguing Page’s timing, precision, and reach will overwhelm the 41-year-old Jared Cannonier. Betss noted Cannonier has absorbed heavy damage in three straight wars—knocked out late by Imavov, nearly finished by Robocop, and battered for five rounds by Krylov—and that cumulative punishment plus age drains his speed. Page, meanwhile, enters with a 23-3 record, an 8-inch reach edge, and the same side-on stance that produced a spinning-elbow knockdown of Kevin Holland. Betss expects Cannonier to attempt an early takedown (priced at plus-money for 1+), but doesn’t see him repeating it often enough to matter. Because oddsmakers hang 4-to-1 on an MVP KO, Betss is considering the finish prop—envisioning a flying knee or spinning strike once Cannonier’s slower entries are timed.