Sean John Lanfranca laid -110 on Mason Jones to win by decision or submission, lopping the -575 money-line down to something playable. Jones averaged 3.3 takedowns per 15 minutes in his first UFC stint, and Lanfranca expects him to lean on that wrestling against Jeremy Stephens—a 38-year-old who has been submitted in consecutive PFL bouts and tapped to Mateusz Gamrot in his UFC farewell. Stephens has not won an MMA fight that allowed grappling in seven years and has been focusing on bare-knuckle boxing. Lanfranca doubts Stephens has put in serious mat time and anticipates Jones either grinding out 15 minutes or finding a choke once the veteran gases.

Despite the ballooned –600 price, Millz Young still favors Mason Jones but cautions bettors about the live-dog power of hometown slugger Jeremy Stephens. Jones—formerly Cage Warriors’ double champ—mixes high-pace boxing with takedowns and has a clear path by wrestling into an early submission. Stephens’ one-shot KO ability is most dangerous in the first four minutes, especially in front of Iowa fans. Millz recommends a cautious approach: Jones inside-the-distance or submission props, plus a small hedge on Stephens round-1 KO for those looking to mitigate risk. The main read is that Jones survives the initial blitz, drags Stephens down and finishes shortly thereafter.

The Weasle said Mason Jones is the betting side because he can 'out-MMA' Jeremy Stephens and eventually force a stoppage. Jones showed cleaner fundamentals in his Cage Warriors war with Michael Figlak and now mixes jabs, spinning kicks and reactive takedowns far better than during his first UFC run. Stephens, meanwhile, is dropping back to lightweight where his takedown defence historically falls under 60 %. The Weasle noted Stephens still wings telegraphed haymakers and relies on calf-kicks, tendencies Jones can read and counter. If the 37-year-old veteran blitzes to make a statement in his return, that recklessness only opens more double-leg and clinch trips for Jones. Jones’ cardio edge and top control should snowball into ground-and-pound elbows for a third-round TKO. Recommended bets: Mason Jones money-line, Jones Round 3 or Jones ITD props.

Rabbi Mort warned listeners not to chase Jeremy Stephens’ +900 to +1000 knockout prop, calling it “the trap of the century.” He reminded bettors that Stephens has not fought MMA since November 2022 and has spent the interim in bare-knuckle boxing, leaving his takedown defense and submission awareness even rustier. Stephens has been submitted in three of his last four MMA appearances and now faces Mason Jones, a 29-year-old Cage Warriors champion who has shown a willingness to wrestle whenever he’s clipped. Mort argued that if Jones gets hurt standing, he’ll immediately grapple, neutralizing Stephens’ only path. Given Stephens’ five prior sub losses, Mort believes the KO number is artificially high to lure casual money and suggested passing entirely or pivoting to Jones-by-submission instead.

Matty Betss said Mason Jones is the ‘best submission number on the card’ at roughly +350 to +400 and should tap Jeremy Stephens. Betss ran through Stephens’ recent résumé: five submission losses, an arm-triangle in PFL 2022 and an easy first-round kimura from Mateusz Gamrot— a control grappler who almost never chases subs. Since then Stephens has focused on bare-knuckle boxing, so Betss doubts he has shored up his grappling. At 29, Jones is still in his prime, is coming off two ground-and-pound wins in Cage Warriors, trains out of a “good BJJ gym,” and signed only a one-fight UFC deal—meaning he’ll want an emphatic finish to secure another contract. Betss expects Stephens to give Jones striking respect; once Jones feels the power he’ll shoot, get top position, and attack chokes. Because the submission is the ‘path-of-least-resistance’ and pays 4-1 compared to Jones money-line at –400, Betss advised making the sub prop leg one of his weekend ‘cycle’ parlay.

DFS Army advised jamming Mason Jones into DraftKings lineups despite the $9,500 tag and –600 money line because Jeremy Stephens no longer handles opponents who wrestle. Jones averages 6+ significant strikes and 1+ takedowns per round, logged eight takedowns and nine minutes of control in his win over David Onama, and pushed Mike Davis to a Fight-of-the-Night split loss. Stephens, 38, arrives from PFL and bare-knuckle riding a 3-10 (1 NC) stretch and has historically folded when forced to defend shots. With the bout –135 to end inside the distance, the tout projects 110-plus DK points via late ground-and-pound or submission, ranking Jones fourth among five 9K fighters yet still worthy of 50-60 % ownership with only token hedge exposure to Stephens haymakers.

Andy Lang echoed the Stephens knockout angle, telling viewers to avoid parlays with Mason Jones entirely and instead ‘just take Stephens by K.O.’. Lang pointed out that Stephens is fighting in his home region, will be in full kill-or-be-killed mode on a one-fight contract, and has zero intention of wrestling or pacing himself. Given Stephens’ age and style, Lang does not expect any other realistic win condition—no submissions, no point-fighting decisions—so the KO prop captures all of his equity while juicing the already sizable underdog price.

Jim Malaro urged listeners to fire on Jeremy Stephens by knockout at the huge underdog price. Malaro thinks Mason Jones being lined around –500 is ‘absolutely insane’ because Jones’ two UFC losses exposed shaky striking defense and he was repeatedly tagged on Cage Warriors by Michael Pagani. Meanwhile Stephens has spent the last two years in bare-knuckle boxing—Malaro joked they are ‘handing out the good vitamins’ there—so he expects a sharper, more aggressive version of Lil’ Heathen returning on this one-fight UFC deal. If Jones can’t get easy takedowns and hold them, Malaro sees Stephens’ one-shot power turning the fight, noting the veteran ‘only needs one swing to put your lights out’. Because Stephens has virtually no submission or decision equity, Malaro recommends skipping the moneyline and playing Stephens by KO for the best odds.

Monk called Mason Jones a priority spend-up despite the $9,500 salary and –600 money line, ranking him fourth among the five 9K options but still essential in large-field builds. Jones averages roughly one takedown per round and six significant strikes per minute in Rounds 1 and 2, numbers Monk illustrated with the David Onama fight (eight takedowns, nine minutes of top control). His only UFC losses came against Mike Davis and Ludovit Klein—both fringe top-15 talents—and the Klein defeat was sparked by a freak head-kick knockdown. By contrast, 38-year-old Jeremy Stevens is returning from PFL and bare-knuckle stints and has historically struggled when opponents mix grappling. Monk expects Jones to push a relentless pace, chain wrestle, and either accumulate 110-plus DraftKings points through rinse-and-repeat takedowns or find a late finish. He will still sprinkle 5-10 percent Stevens for heavyweight-style volatility, but Jones is a core piece in cash and GPP formats alike.

Cody Saftic advised backing Mason Jones despite the steep –525 tag, steering bettors toward decision or ‘fight goes the distance’ props for value. Jones is a former top-five UK judoka, a BJJ black belt, and has spent this camp at Team Alpha Male refining chain wrestling that already netted him a 46 % takedown success rate in his first UFC stint. Saftic expects Jones to blend volume kickboxing with well-timed throws, leaning on Jeremy Stephens’ 42 % career takedown defense and age-38 mileage. Stephens’ recent form—1-2 in PFL with a quick RNC loss to Natan Schulte and two decision defeats, plus 1-2 in boxing/BKFC—suggests the trademark one-punch power is fading, especially moving up to lightweight where Jones has fought his whole career. Jones has never been knocked out and should out-land the hometown favorite while neutralizing pocket exchanges with trips and top control. Cody’s preferred approach: Jones by decision (around +120) or full-fight goes distance (+140) to mitigate the chalky money-line while acknowledging Stephens’ legendary toughness and the Iowa crowd boost.

Kunath expects Mason Jones to overwhelm Jeremy Stephens and finish him late. Stephens has not won an MMA bout in more than seven years, has been out of the cage since 2022, and has spent that layoff boxing bare-knuckle—hardly ideal preparation for defending takedowns or clinch exchanges. Meanwhile Jones, fresh off sharpening his all-around game in Cage Warriors, is entering his prime with a granite chin and relentless motor. Kunath forecasted an early feeling-out phase while Stephens adjusts to a sport he hasn’t practiced recently, then a steady tide of pressure strikes and level changes from Jones that sap the 38-year-old’s gas tank. Once Stephens fades, Jones’ volume and youth take over for a round-three TKO. Bettors can attack the Jones inside-the-distance or KO prop, and DFS players get a sneaky ceiling play without paying the top-shelf salaries attached to bigger names.

Building off his earlier endorsement of Mason Jones, Gumby Vreeland singled out Jones by knockout at +200 as the second leg of his 17-to-1 parlay. He believes the Welshman’s pressure boxing and heavy ground-and-pound will overwhelm a shop-worn Jeremy Stephens, who is 1-5 in his last six and has shown declining durability. Vreeland noted Jones’ willingness to posture up for strikes rather than chase submissions when fights hit the mat, making a TKO stoppage the most likely inside-distance outcome. With Stephens’ takedown defense sagging below 60% and his infamous brawling style inviting heavy counters, Gumby expects Jones to find a finish before the third horn, making the +200 KO/TKO price a standalone bet as well as a valuable parlay piece.

Gumby Vreeland advised betting on Mason Jones and even sprinkling his inside-the-distance prop and the fight under. Vreeland noted that Jones’ first UFC stint looks worse on paper than it was – he went 1-1 with a clear win over current #14 featherweight David Onama and a competitive loss to Ludovit Klein, who is about to face Mateusz Gamrot. Outside the Octagon Jones has rattled off four straight wins and brings a 15-2 record with seven knockouts and three submissions. Vreeland expects Jones to lean on his underrated grappling early, a phase where Jeremy Stevens historically struggles. Stevens is 1-5 in his last six, has not recorded a victory since June 2022, and is returning for a third UFC run at age 38 after going 1-2 in PFL and 3-0 in bare-knuckle boxing. Vreeland believes Stephens still has some hand speed, but the defensive holes are too big and his takedown defense has eroded. Given the class difference, Vreeland forecasted an early Jones finish and said any number shorter than ‑500 still had parlay value.

MMA Guru said Mason Jones should roll past Jeremy Stephens and even saw value on Jones inside-the-distance despite a steep –575 moneyline. Guru noted Jones is the naturally bigger lightweight with a granite chin, plus a collegiate-level wrestling game that Stephens has not faced in years because Stephens has been boxing and doing BKFC since leaving the UFC. He highlighted how Jones rag-dolled David Onama in his first UFC stint and has been smashing regional prospects during his comeback bid, proving both physicality and hunger. Stephens, now 40, owns a long UFC resume but has logged zero live grappling rounds recently and will be giving up size and freshness. Guru expects Jones to pressure with kicks to force Stephens backward, pin him to the fence, hit easy takedowns, take the back and finish with ground-and-pound—predicting a round-two or round-three TKO. He advised bettors that Jones should be closer to a 3-to-1 favorite and likes the Jones TKO prop or Jones inside-the-distance as parlay anchors.

Bedtime MMA forecasted Mason Jones either by dominant decision or ground-and-pound TKO against Jeremy Stephens. He granted Stephens a minute or two of live danger thanks to trademark power, but pointed to a two-year layoff, bare-knuckle detour, and historically poor takedown defense. Jones, an undefeated prospect in the tout’s eyes, will be the bigger lightweight, can mix in wrestling whenever he wants, and should turn Stephens into "a bloody mess" once elbows start flowing.