Pat Fitzmaurice pegged Matt McCarty as a prime mid-tier dart at 80-to-1. McCarty sits 16th on TOUR in strokes-gained putting and profiles as a "fairway finder"—two skills Fitzmaurice said are mandatory when the John Deere turns into a -23 birdie fest. Recent results back it up: 4th at the Canadian Open and 19th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic while gaining a combined 8.2 strokes with the flat stick across those two events. Fitzmaurice added that McCarty’s 71% fairway rate over the last eight starts should set up a wedge-heavy attack on the short par 4s at TPC Deere Run, making him live for both outright and top-20 tickets.

Bo McBrayer could not resist a micro-stake on Cristobal del Solar at a jaw-dropping 1000-to-1. McBrayer acknowledged the Chilean is raw but pointed to back-to-back Korn Ferry top-10s and a T-21 PGA TOUR cameo two weeks ago as evidence the form is bubbling. Del Solar ranks inside the Korn Ferry top 20 in both GIR percentage and birdie average this season, metrics McBrayer believes translate on Deere Run’s receptive surfaces. With most books hanging prices in the triple digits, McBrayer framed the wager as a pure ceiling play—"throw a couple bucks and enjoy the sweat"—while suggesting a top-40 prop for a steadier path to profit.

Pat Fitzmaurice called Harry Higgs the ultimate value bomb at 250-to-1, arguing "Big Rig" thrives whenever the star power is thin. Higgs finished runner-up last week, 24th in Detroit, and lost a three-man playoff to Ryan Fox at the Myrtle Beach Classic earlier this spring—three top-25s in his last four weak-field stops. Fitzmaurice highlighted Higgs’ recent surge with the putter (gaining 1.2 strokes per round over his last eight) and his improved driving accuracy, up eight percentage points since April. In a projected shootout, Fitzmaurice believes Higgs’ birdie-making bursts give him a puncher’s chance and make top-20 plus each-way tickets attractive leverage plays.

Pat Fitzmaurice labeled Jackson Suber a worthwhile flyer at 110-to-1. Suber’s irons are scorching—he gained 5.6 strokes on approach during a 6th-place Rocket Mortgage finish and has been +3 or better in four of his last five starts. Fitzmaurice pointed to Suber’s wedge proximity numbers (inside top 10 from 100-125 yards) as a perfect fit for Deere Run’s short par 4s. Add in a top-20 at the Canadian Open and continual gains around the green, and Fitzmaurice believes Suber carries legitimate Sunday contention equity in a watered-down field.

Pat Fitzmaurice urged bettors to keep riding Sami Valimaki at triple-digit odds (100-to-1 at open). Valimaki ranks 8th in strokes-gained putting and 27th in SG: Approach this season, a combo Fitzmaurice deems lethal on Deere Run’s soft bentgrass greens. The Finn finished 12th here last year and rolls in with form—19th in Detroit while gaining 4.1 strokes on approach. Fitzmaurice thinks books are ignoring Valimaki’s three straight top-25s on U.S. soil and the fact he gains nearly a full stroke per round on bentgrass. He recommended pairing a small outright with a top-20 prop for safer exposure.

Pat Fitzmaurice said Jackson Koivun deserves a spot on outright cards even though books still treat him like a fringe long-shot. Fitzmaurice reminded listeners that Koivun flashed last week on a bomber-friendly track despite not owning elite distance, finishing inside the top 25 by gaining strokes in every category. He called Koivun’s profile "balanced everywhere, weak nowhere," noting the rookie has gained strokes tee-to-green in four straight PGA TOUR starts while ranking 35th in SG: Approach over his last 24 measured rounds. Because that well-rounded game travels, Fitzmaurice expects Koivun to hold value on any course—including accuracy-centric TPC Deere Run—and likes sprinkling him in the 70-to-1 to 90-to-1 range before the public catches up.

Bo McBrayer went back to Chandler (Carl) Phillips at 150-1, believing the nuanced TPC Deere Run suits his precise irons and sharp short game far better than last week’s bomber-friendly Detroit setup. McBrayer expects Phillips to gain strokes on approach rather than lose ground off the tee, giving him legitimate top-20 equity and long-shot outright upside. He recommends pairing the outright ticket with a top-20 prop for a safer path to profit.

Bo McBrayer called Max Homa the potential "turnaround of the season" candidate and snapped up the 90-1 outright with a top-20 kicker. McBrayer argued Homa’s talent level far exceeds this price point and expects softer bentgrass greens to mask recent putting woes. With no elite names in the field and Homa capable of gaining multiple strokes both off the tee and on approach, McBrayer views the number as a pure misprice worth sprinkling.

Pat Fitzmaurice reiterated Emiliano Grillo as a value bet, noting top-25 finishes in four of his last five starts and a runner-up at the 2022 Deere. Grillo’s reliable ball-striking profile—he sits top-10 in GIR over the past 24 rounds—gives him a high floor, and Fitzmaurice believes the Argentine’s putter has shown just enough life to cash each-way tickets or finish inside the top 20 at generous mid-60s odds.

Pat Fitzmaurice called Lucas Glover a sneaky outright and top-10 play at +4500. Glover has three top-10s in his last five Deere starts, including a 2018 victory, and arrives fresh off a 9th at the Travelers. Fitzmaurice trusts Glover’s elite approach game and comfort on bentgrass greens to thrive in the expected birdie-fest, noting that his ball-striking metrics remain top-25 on Tour despite the putter shakiness that scares the market.

Pat Fitzmaurice is adding Thriston Lawrence at 65-1, reasoning that the South African’s current form (12th at the U.S. Open and 8th at the Rocket Mortgage) shows his all-around game is peaking. Fitzmaurice argued Lawrence’s lack of elite power is irrelevant at a Deere layout that rewards precise iron play and hot putters. With Aldrich Potgieter winning last week, Fitzmaurice sees a realistic path for another South African to strike if Lawrence sustains the tee-to-green gains he showed in Detroit.

Bo McBrayer highlighted Cameron Champ at 70-1 as the one name in the messy mid-tier who still carries genuine ceiling. Champ flashed last week, and McBrayer noted his ability to string birdies together quickly when the driver cooperates. Although TPC Deere Run doesn’t traditionally reward bombers, the combination of scoring upside and a forgiving outright number makes Champ a speculative add for bettors seeking leverage over a field filled with youngsters and middling veterans.

Bo McBrayer is passing on Luke Clanton at 35-1, calling the sophomore "the ultimate volatility pick." Clanton nearly won last year but followed that with a Saturday 77 last week in Detroit, turning contention into a T-34. McBrayer said Clanton is either making birdies or doubles with very little in-between, and the short number after opening 70-1 leaves no room for error. Bettors who cannot stomach a blow-up round should steer clear of Clanton in outrights and single-entry DFS builds.

Pat Fitzmaurice advised fading J.T. Poston despite his Deere win in 2022 and 6th-place finish in 2023. The reason: Poston’s trademark putting has cratered – he ranks 93rd in strokes-gained putting this season – and Fitzmaurice does not believe he can keep pace in a projected −23 shootout without that edge. With form trending the wrong direction and the market still hanging top-tier odds, Fitzmaurice is leaving Poston off all outright tickets and DFS lineups.

Bo McBrayer warned bettors not to chase Ben Griffin at the opening +1600 number, comparing the price to what books hang on proven elite names like Xander Schauffele. While acknowledging Griffin’s six-straight top-15 finishes (including the PGA, U.S. Open and Travelers) and his 5th-place Deere debut last year, McBrayer argued the market has already priced in every bit of upside. He expects the number to shorten even further as casual money arrives, eliminating any value for outrights or DFS builds. McBrayer would only consider Griffin if the odds drift toward 25-1, which he does not anticipate.

Bo McBrayer said he is starting his outright card with Denny McCarthy at +2800 because the veteran owns the most complete profile in this field. McBrayer pointed to McCarthy’s elite short game – he called it "best in the field" – and three-year course resume of 6th, 6th and 7th at TPC Deere Run. McCarthy is also riding four straight top-15 finishes that include the PGA Championship and Travelers, proving his form translates against stronger competition. With the winning score projected near −23 and wedges deciding everything, McBrayer trusts McCarthy’s ability to convert birdie looks and views +2800 as the only palatable number among the favorites for both betting cards and DFS builds.

Bo McBrayer said Aldrich Potgieter is a sell candidate at TPC Deere Run despite last week’s breakthrough win. McBrayer emphasized that Potgieter’s power advantage is neutralized on this shorter, tree-lined track where accuracy and wedges matter far more. He pointed to Potgieter losing strokes around the green in Detroit—calling his chipping “a nightmare”—and noted that traditional courses with trouble off the tee historically expose the South African. With DraftKings hanging 40-to-1 outright odds, McBrayer recommended fading Potgieter in outrights and DFS lineups until the Tour returns to another bomber-friendly venue.

Even though Denny McCarthy’s elite putting makes him tempting on birdie fests, Farnsworth refuses to pay $9,900. McCarthy grades poorly in his model because he’s losing strokes with the irons over the last two months and sits outside the top-50 for strokes-gained off the tee on driver-heavy tracks. The pricing gap between McCarthy and similarly skilled players like Kevin Yu or Mark Hubbard is too wide, so Farnsworth is fading him entirely in DFS builds.

Farnsworth views Stephan Jaeger as a classic post-missed-cut buy. Jaeger bombed out last week yet historically excels on very easy setups, ranking top-10 in birdie rate on such courses over the past two years. His balanced tee-to-green profile suits TPC Deere Run, and early ownership projections below 10 % make him an attractive contrarian GPP play. With pricing in the mid-7Ks, Jaeger provides theoretical 5-to-1 leverage if his putter overheats on these straightforward bentgrass greens.

Mark Hubbard quietly fits the build Farnsworth wants in the low-7K range. After a sluggish early 2025 season, Hubbard has posted finishes of 5th, 7th, and 13th in three of his past six starts while gaining on approach in five straight. He is 4-for-4 making the cut at the John Deere, highlighted by a T6 last year. Given wide fairways that mitigate his average length and small but receptive greens that reward his pinpoint wedges, Farnsworth likes Hubbard as a single-entry safety valve and mid-range salary saver.

Calling him “one of my favorite plays on the board,” Farnsworth spotlighted Pierceson Coody (transcript spelled Kuti) at $7,600. Coody rolls in with a 7th, 3rd, and 2nd in his last three Corn Ferry Tour starts and hasn’t missed a cut in 11 combined KFT/PGA appearances. He finished T30 at TPC Deere Run last year and profiles well on driver-heavy birdie tracks thanks to plus distance and elite wedge play. Farnsworth plans to be overweight in all formats, trusting recent form to carry over against a weak PGA field.

Farnsworth prefers Kevin Yu over many chalky 8K options. Yu is top-10 in the field for both driving distance and strokes-gained approach, a perfect recipe for a venue where 73 % of tee shots are drivers and wedges dominate approach play. He has translated that skill set into finishes of T20 and T6 in two career John Deere appearances. At $8,400 (price referenced in the show), Yu provides ceiling without sacrificing cut equity and serves as a leverage pivot off more popular names in his salary neighborhood.

Although Sungjae Im shows up fifth in the numbers, Farnsworth wants no part of him. Im ranks near dead last in this weak field for strokes-gained approach and greens-in-regulation over the last month, forcing him to rely on scrambling – a skill set largely irrelevant at TPC Deere Run where up-and-downs are minimal. Farnsworth noted Im has flashed good history here, but the current iron play is too poor to justify his salary or ownership, so he’s an outright fade in DFS builds.

Farnsworth ranked J.T. Poston third in his model and called him a quintessential cut-maker who already owns a John Deere title. Poston leads the field in birdies on very easy courses over the last two seasons and also grades out top-five on driver-heavy tracks and attackable-approach layouts. That combination gives him both safety and upside in a week projected to reach −20 or better. Farnsworth suggested rostering Poston alongside Ben Griffin to differentiate line-ups because most managers will treat them as either/or plays.

Farnsworth acknowledged the risk with Keith Mitchell – he lost five strokes off the tee and four with the putter while nearly finishing dead last a week ago – yet still plans to roster him because the underlying profile pops No. 2 in his model at just $7,800. Mitchell has gained strokes off the tee in 16 of his past 20 starts (last week the lone blow-up) and owns positive history at TPC Deere Run. The layout’s 73 % driver usage and forgiving fairways suit his aggressive style, and easy greens reduce his biggest weakness, putting variance. Farnsworth labeled him an ideal large-field tournament option whose boom-or-bust nature can win GPPs if the driver rebounds.

Derek Farnsworth said Ben Griffin sits at an eye-popping 91.7 in his stat model – territory usually reserved for Scottie Scheffler – and is therefore an automatic target at $10,400 on DraftKings. Griffin checks every box: he won the Zurich team event, followed with an 8th, captured the Charles Schwab, and posted several additional high finishes, including top-10s in majors. At TPC Deere Run specifically he finished 5th last year and rates No. 1 in the split stats for easy courses, driver-heavy tracks, and approach-friendly layouts. Wide fairways amplify his off-the-tee advantage, and the projected birdie-fest places extra value on his streaky putter. Farnsworth framed him as the slate’s cash-game anchor and a tournament staple despite expected heavy ownership.

Patrick McDonald listed Davis Thompson on his "can’t-win" sheet, pointing to Thompson’s dismal putting performance all season. McDonald said the former Georgia Bulldog has been "so bad" with the flat stick that it derailed what he once thought could be a Ryder Cup campaign. Until Thompson reverses the trend—he ranks near the bottom of the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting—McDonald is fading him in outright and top-20 markets at the John Deere Classic.

Shane Bacon advised bettors to steer clear of Jason Day in outright markets this week. Bacon placed Day on his "can’t-win" list because the former world No. 1 has logged very few competitive rounds in 2025, withdrew from The Players, and appears more focused on launching a YouTube channel than sharpening tournament reps. Bacon added that while Day’s talent could surface at a major like The Open, the low-scoring birdie fest in Illinois is an unlikely spot for a breakthrough. He recommends fading Day in all win and placement wagers.

Shane Bacon called Matt McCarty his favorite long-shot at the John Deere Classic, noting the rookie sits around +8000 in betting markets. Bacon said TPC Deere Run rewards fairway finders and precise wedge play, two areas where McCarty excels. He highlighted McCarty’s season-long consistency—multiple top-10 finishes, a win on the Korn Ferry Tour last fall, and a solid showing at the Masters—as proof the moment will not be too big. Bacon believes McCarty’s combination of fairway accuracy, tidy short game, and recent form make him worth sprinkling in outright and top-10 tickets.

Brian Giuffra likes Chris Gotterup at +5500 to grab the Thursday lead. Gotterup ranks 12th on Tour in SG: Off the Tee, opened with 63 at the Puerto Rico Open earlier this year, and has gained on approach in three of his last four starts. Giuffra trusts Gotterup’s driving and streaky putter to fire a one-round low number before volatility creeps in over the weekend.

Cody Williams took Kevin Roy Top 20 at +250, citing Roy’s consecutive T8 and T18 finishes while gaining 1.8 strokes ball-striking per round in both events. Roy pairs above-average length with strong fairway accuracy and sits inside the Top 45 in proximity from both 50-100 and 100-150 yards. Bentgrass is his best putting surface, so Williams thinks the recent form plus surface edge makes a Top-20 ticket a smart bankroll builder.

Iain MacMillan advises betting Michael Kim to miss the cut at +160. Although Kim lifted the trophy here in 2018, he has missed the cut in all four trips since. MacMillan added that Kim owns just one Top-25 finish since March, so current form does little to suggest a turnaround. Given the shaky iron numbers and recent Deere struggles, MacMillan sees value in fading the former champ.

For his long-shot ticket, Iain MacMillan grabbed Emiliano Grillo at +7500. Grillo ranks No. 1 in the entire field in True Strokes Gained: Approach over the last three months and finished runner-up at this event in 2022. MacMillan has been riding the Argentine’s recent form and thinks his elite iron play can cash in a wide-open week at Deere Run.

Brian Giuffra is backing Mark Hubbard outright at +5000, calling him a perfect fit for the Deere’s low-scoring environment. Hubbard owns recent finishes of T13 (Rocket Mortgage), T5 (CJ Cup) and T7 (Myrtle Beach Classic) on similarly soft setups, ranks among the tour’s better putters, and averages nearly four birdies per round. Giuffra expects that birdie rate to hold on a track that has historically rewarded hot putters and sights value in a weaker field.

Cody Williams is rolling the dice on Andrew Putnam at +7500. Williams emphasized Putnam’s precision approach game—Top 35 in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and 16th in proximity from 100-150 yards—plus elite accuracy (5th in Good Drive Rate) and Bentgrass putting (28th in SG: Putting on Bent). On a course where irons and putting rule, Williams believes that balanced profile gives Putnam a real path to an upset victory at huge odds.

John Schwarb likes Chris Kirk at +3500 to close the deal one week after losing a three-man playoff in Detroit. Schwarb pointed to Kirk’s current form and his comfort at TPC Deere Run—four finishes of T23 or better in seven appearances, including T21 last year. Schwarb expects last week’s narrow miss to sharpen Kirk’s focus as he hunts his seventh PGA Tour victory in a field missing most elite names.

Brian Kirschner is taking a swing at Kevin Yu at +3500 to win outright. Kirschner noted Yu already owns a PGA Tour victory (Sanderson Farms) and pairs above-average length with surprising accuracy off the tee—an ideal combo for Deere Run’s generous fairways and wedge approaches. Yu is trending with a solo 3rd and T25 in his last two starts, and Kirschner thinks his balanced tee-to-green profile is being overlooked in a weak field, giving bettors a live number for his second PGA Tour title.

Iain MacMillan called Bud Cauley his favorite outright play at 40-1. MacMillan highlighted that Cauley sits 15th on the entire PGA Tour in Total Strokes Gained this season and 9th in the John Deere field in True Strokes Gained: Approach over the last three months. Because TPC Deere Run rewards precise irons and birdie streaks, MacMillan believes Cauley’s current wedge game makes him a perfect fit. With a wide-open leaderboard and short odds on the headliners, MacMillan thinks the market is underrating Cauley’s combination of elite approach numbers and recent scoring form.

For pure upside, Kannon rolled the dice on Sami Valimaki at 95-1. The Finn fired four sub-70 rounds en route to 19th in Detroit and was 12th in last year’s Deere debut, opening with a 61. Stat form is sizzling: over the last 24 rounds he ranks fourth in Birdies or Better Gained, eighth in proximity from 125-150 yards, and eighth on Tour in SG: Putting. That blend of iron precision and a torrid flat stick fits Kannon’s blueprint for winning the birdie-fest in Silvis.

Kevin Roy (79-1) made Kannon’s card after finishing eighth in Detroit, where he ranked third in SG: Approach and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green. Over the past 24 rounds, Roy sits 11th in SG: Ball Striking, eighth in Good Drives Gained, and third in SG: Par 4s, confirming the statistical surge. Kannon added that Roy’s proficiency from 75-150 yards aligns perfectly with TPC Deere Run’s scoring corridors, making him an attractive long-shot outright and top-10 sprinkle.

Kannon grabbed Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 65-1, highlighting his elite putting and deft wedge play. Bezuidenhout was runner-up in his 2022 Deere debut, finished fourth this season at TPC Scottsdale, and owns a rock-solid Colonial resume (16th, 17th, 21st, 15th the last four years). The South African ranks near the top of the field from 75-150 yards, giving him the exact skill set Kannon believes wins on a less-than-driver course where a hot putter separates contenders.

At 50-1, Kannon sees Michael Kim as a sneaky value. The 2018 Deere champion has quietly made 10 straight cuts—six of those in Signature Events or majors—showing floor as well as ceiling. Kim finished 26th last week in Detroit, earlier posted a runner-up at TPC Scottsdale, and logged 16th and sixth in his last two trips to Colonial, all layouts Kannon uses for course comp. Like the rest of his card, Kim rates highly from 75-150 yards, the key approach window at TPC Deere Run.

Kannon backed Lucas Glover at 41-1, pointing to a ninth-place finish at the Travelers where Glover carded four rounds in the 60s and ranked highly with his wedges (75-150 yards). Over the last 24 rounds, Glover sits 29th in Good Drives Gained, reinforcing the accuracy premium at Deere Run. His past results on correlated tracks include fourth in Detroit, seventh at TPC Twin Cities, multiple top-25s and top-15s at Colonial, and of course the 2021 win at the John Deere Classic. Kannon framed the bet as a blend of current form, statistical fit, and proven winning upside on this exact course.

Brady Kannon said Chris Kirk is worth another wager at 38-1 even after last week’s playoff heartbreak in Detroit. Kannon leaned on Kirk’s elite wedge game (among the best in the field from 75-150 yards), a driving profile that is both long and accurate, and proven course history. Kirk owns five top-30 finishes in seven Deere starts and just added a runner-up at Detroit to three prior top-20s there, confirming the crossover form Kannon seeks. The tout also cited Kirk’s past victory at Colonial, another correlated layout, as evidence that his skill set matches TPC Deere Run’s efficiency-over-power demands.

Rick Gehman said Nico Echavarria is exactly the kind of high-variance swing you want in large-field DraftKings GPPs at TPC Deere Run. Over his last five starts Echavarria has gained at least four strokes on approach three separate times, a ceiling only a handful of sub-$8K players possess this week. The putter has complemented the irons, picking up 2.3 strokes or more in three of those events. The volatility shows in the finishes—T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, missed cut at the U.S. Open, 59th, 41st, and T25—but Gehman stressed that the top-10 upside is real when both clubs cooperate. Given the course’s emphasis on approach play and bent-grass putting, Gehman is comfortable treating Echavarria as a boom-or-bust differentiator in the $7,800 range.

Although Chris Gotterup is amid the best run of his career—eight top-30s in his last nine starts—Rick Gehman urged caution this week. TPC Deere Run minimizes Gotterup's main weapon (power) and punishes his occasional inaccuracy. While he has gained on approach in four straight and around the green in four of five, the putter remains unreliable. Gehman sees a middling floor and limited ceiling unless Godderup produces a surprise spike week with the flatstick; therefore he recommends fading the likely elevated ownership and reallocating to better course fits in the mid-$9K range.

Jason Sobel tabbed Christian Bezuidenhout as a live outright and DFS core play for TPC Deere Run. Sobel highlighted Bezuidenhout’s elite combination of fairway accuracy and scrambling—skills that mirror past champions Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker. Over his last 24 rounds, Bezuidenhout ranks top-15 on TOUR in SG: Putting and top-25 in fairways gained, exactly the mold Sobel believes wins birdie-fests. Although Bezuidenhout rarely flashes distance, Sobel pointed to his three worldwide victories (including two on tight South African tracks) as proof he can close when in contention. He expects odds near 40-45/1, giving plenty of breathing room for a two-unit outright and heavy DFS exposure.

Jason Sobel grabbed Jacob Bridgeman in the show’s mock draft, calling him a classic TPC Deere Run sleeper. Though Bridgman can be erratic off the tee, Sobel likes that wide fairways reduce that weakness, letting Bridgman’s plus-iron game (gaining in approach in 8 of his last 10 measured rounds) and streaky putter shine. Sobel framed him as an "up-and-comer with sustainable long-term talent" whose price should land in the mid-to-high 50/1 range, making him a multi-unit DFS GPP target and a sprinkle on the outright card.

Byron Lindeque highlighted Jacob Bridgeman at $7,500 as his favorite GPP flier. Bridgman owns a 12 percent top-five finish rate despite the bargain salary and is one of the field’s best putters on Bentgrass. Lindeque’s upside model ranks him 8th overall—25 spots higher than his DraftKings price—thanks to that spike-putting profile. Though the ball-striking can disappear and lead to missed cuts, Bridgman’s putter has carried him to high finishes on leaderboards that included elite names like Justin Thomas. Byron is happy to roster him in roughly 10 percent of lineups, knowing even one Sunday putting heater could vault Bridgman into the optimal lineup at minuscule ownership.