Despite being a 3-point underdog in Sao Paulo, the Chargers earned Joyner’s only money-line play of the week at confidence 1 (spread confidence 2) because Patrick Mahomes comes off a season ranking 27th in vertical PPG (11+ air yards) and 28th in stretch-vertical PPG (21+). Andy Reid wants to fix that with Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, but both draw difficult individual matchups according to Joyner’s 1-to-100 Paydirt grades. Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers, on the other hand, will funnel targets to Ladd McConkey against a Kansas City secondary that rates merely average, while both backfields face poor rush-defense matchups. With neither side able to run, Joyner trusts Los Angeles’ “aerial success to offset Kansas City” and grabs the +3 at ‑102 plus the outright win.

Kris Knox laid the –3 with Kansas City, predicting Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes enter 2025 eager to re-establish an "explosive" identity after a relatively quiet 2024. Knox called left-tackle Rashawn Slater’s foot injury a season-long problem that will surface immediately against Chris Jones & Co., jeopardizing Justin Herbert’s timing. With the Chargers’ offensive cornerstone missing and no weather concerns on the Brazilian pitch, Knox sees Mahomes’ ceiling outpacing L.A.’s and expects K.C. to clear the short number.

Brad Gagnon took the Chargers +3 on the Rio de Janeiro neutral field, reminding readers the Chiefs finished 2024 among the league’s worst against the spread versus division opponents (and overall). Kansas City also enters Week 1 with eight key contributors on the injury report, while Los Angeles’ most significant loss is tackle Rashawn Slater—an absence Gagnon believes is already baked into the number. With a field-goal head start and the Chargers historically playing Patrick Mahomes close, he prefers the points.

Everett laid the three points with Kansas City at the neutral-site game in São Paulo. He cited the Chargers’ loss of All-Pro left tackle Rashawn Slater in camp and questioned Los Angeles’ 2024 résumé—seven of its 11 wins came against 5-12 or worse clubs. With Justin Herbert’s protection compromised and the Chargers still looking for a signature victory, Everett expects Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to handle business and cover.

Everett laid the three points with Kansas City at the neutral-site game in São Paulo. He cited the Chargers’ loss of All-Pro left tackle Rashawn Slater in camp and questioned Los Angeles’ 2024 résumé—seven of its 11 wins came against 5-12 or worse clubs. With Justin Herbert’s protection compromised and the Chargers still looking for a signature victory, Everett expects Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to handle business and cover.

Tafur is on Kansas City ‑3 in Sao Paulo. He noted OC Matt Nagy’s offseason mandate to revive the deep passing attack after Patrick Mahomes hit a career-low 10.7 % of throws 20+ yards in 2024. Rookie LT Josh Simmons should give Mahomes more time, while Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown face a Chargers secondary that surrendered a league-high 13 touchdowns on passes 15+ yards. With Rashawn Slater lost for the season, Tafur expects Justin Herbert to be under duress and the Chiefs to begin another Super Bowl push.

Iyer advised taking Kansas City -3 in the Friday game from Sao Paulo. He trusts the Chiefs’ defense to handle a Charger offense that now leans on the run, and he expects Patrick Mahomes to manufacture a few more late-game plays than Justin Herbert. His projected score of 23-16 cashes a Chiefs ticket and the under.

Prisco laid the 3.5 with Kansas City in Brazil, noting the Chiefs rebuilt offensive line held up all preseason while the Chargers lost left tackle Rashawn Slater for the year. He emphasized that giving Patrick Mahomes clean pockets is "a bad thing for a defense" and expects the former MVP to post big numbers right away. With L.A. shorthanded up front and forced to chase points, Prisco projected a 30-21 Chiefs win and advised backing K.C. before the number climbs past a field goal.

MacMillan laid the -3 with Kansas City, reminding readers the Chiefs still went 15-2 last season and that fading the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid duo is "a dangerous game." He thinks the market is too quick to push a Chargers breakthrough despite major holes: rookie starter at RB, All-Pro LT Rashawn Slater out for the season, and no clear WR2. The more settled, championship-tested Chiefs "deserve to be bigger favorites on a neutral field," so he is comfortable eating the field goal.

Najee Harris finally returned to practice after missing time since July 4, but Ian Hartitz noted that head coach John Harbaugh would only say it is a "possibility" the running back will be ready for Friday night’s opener against Kansas City. With no assurance Harris will suit up—or handle a full workload even if he does—Hartitz advised fantasy managers to treat him as a risky Week 1 option and plan alternatives.

Because Najee Harris remains a question mark for the Chargers’ opener, Ian Hartitz called Omarion Hampton an "awesome selection across all formats." Hampton has mixed in with the first-team offense throughout camp and would be the favorite for early-down and goal-line work if Harris is limited or ruled out. Hartitz encouraged drafters to scoop up Hampton this weekend as a bench pick who could deliver immediate RB2 production.

Emory Hunt advised bettors to ignore Los Angeles’ +1200 price to win the AFC (and by extension their 25-1 Super Bowl ticket). He flatly stated the Chargers have shown no ability to beat the conference’s elite—Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, or even the rising Texans—and until they prove otherwise backing them is "just giving money away." Hunt reiterated his nine-win projection, citing a run-heavy offense that limits upside and a division where even Denver and Las Vegas have closed the gap. He would need a much bigger number before considering any Chargers championship exposure.