Billy Ward said this is the classic spot to grab the plus-money side in a fight he expects to reach the scorecards. Barbosa’s high-level judo and BJJ background means Silva cannot rely on her usual grappling-heavy path to victory, mirroring the Hibas-Ritchie dynamic where the more complete grappler prevailed. With a prior win over Silva and likely top-control advantage, Ward prefers Barbosa’s moneyline and decision prop in what he calls a 50-50 bout.

Sean Zerillo said Dione Barbosa is mis-priced at +150 or longer in her rematch with Karine Silva. He makes Barbosa +140 and her decision prop +200 while books sit at +280. Zerillo noted Barbosa already beat Silva in 2019, they are nearly the same age, and neither is a developing prospect. With Barbosa’s judo/jiu-jitsu credentials neutralising Silva’s grappling and the matchup likely to see the judges, he wants Barbosa moneyline and decision tickets.

Despite coming in on short notice, TheWeasle sided with underdog Dianny Barbosa to submit Karine Silva in round three. Silva owns a perfect 0 percent takedown defense in five UFC attempts, and three of those came in her last fight. Barbosa has completed takedowns in every UFC appearance and is the more technical grappler. While Silva is the better pure striker, the tout believes Barbosa’s wrestling lets her drag matters to the mat, where Silva has struggled. Conditioning also favors Barbosa because Silva re-tooled her camp for JJ Aldrich and now must deal with a grappler instead. At current plus money, the tout recommends taking Barbosa straight and sprinkling her submission prop.

Dan Tom said that Karine Silva should be treated as the clear side in the rematch with Diana Barbosa because, in his words, Silva "has evolved so much since that fight." Although he did not cite specific numbers, Tom stressed that the jump in Silva’s overall game since their first meeting justifies current chalk pricing and makes her a money-line or parlay piece rather than a fight to hunt for an upset. The takeaway for bettors is to back Silva if the line is anywhere near reasonable, fading the nostalgia for the underdog’s prior win.

Madlab Michael Lurato laid the –220 on Karine Silva despite her dropping a regional bout to Diana Barbosa years ago. He warned listeners not to over-weight that result because fighters evolve between fights, arguing Silva has ‘surpassed her as a fighter.’ Lurato likes Silva’s improved footwork, range management, and fluid striking, advantages that should be amplified in the full-size Octagon where Barbosa will struggle to corral her. He sees two realistic scripts: a competitive decision Silva edges or a runaway performance that makes –220 look cheap—either way, Silva gets her hand raised.

Matty Betss leaned toward Karine Silva despite the −230 price tag, projecting a decision win. He pointed to Silva’s well-rounded finishing resume – once mirroring Shavkat Rakhmonov with eight KOs and nine subs – and the fact she relocated full-time to the "Five Nerds" camp, a move Betss says has already cleaned up her takedown defense. Silva’s last setback to Viviane Araujo pushed her to tighten those holes. Although Barbosa owns a head-to-head win from years ago and is riding momentum, Betss argued Silva is now the cleaner striker, the stronger clinch athlete and benefits from world-class wrestling drilling at her new gym. He acknowledged Barbosa carries underdog value but still graded Silva the side for straight bets or parlays, expecting her cardio and defensive wrestling gains to show over 15 minutes.