Joe Osborne played the over 2.5 rounds at -125 for Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer. He reminded listeners that Gastelum is a "decision machine," with nine of his last ten bouts going the distance, and that the former interim-title challenger has never been knocked out. Osborne acknowledged Pyfer’s power but argued that if Gastelum survives the early barrage, Pyfer typically slows down and the fight’s pace should drop, allowing the over to cash yet again on a durable Gastelum matchup.

Michael Bisping doubled down on his earlier Joe Pyfer pick but added a fresh wrinkle: better gas-tank management. He recalled Pyfer wobbling Jack Hermansson repeatedly before fading, a lesson the Philly prospect has addressed with altitude work in Denver and a measured sparring schedule. Bisping contrasted that with Kelvin Gastelum’s discipline issues—weight misses in two of his last six and a 2-6 slide since 2019. Gastelum has fallen to elite names, but Bisping pointed out that losing can become habitual when motivation wanes. He expects Pyfer to conserve energy, keep combinations tight, and eventually connect with the sledgehammer right hand that has produced 10 career KOs. The recommendation is Pyfer by KO/TKO or under 2.5 rounds, priced around +110 on most books.

Michael Bisping leaned toward Joe Pyfer scoring a knockout over Kelvin Gastelum when their rescheduled meeting finally goes down at UFC 316. Pyfer’s "insane" punching power and early-career hunger stand in stark contrast to Gastelum’s 2-6 record since his 2019 war with Israel Adesanya, a span that includes weight-misses and questions about focus. Bisping noted Gastelum’s recent defeats to Robert Whittaker, Jared Cannonier and Sean Brady, calling inconsistency and discipline legitimate red flags. With Pyfer angry after food poisoning scrapped the first booking, Bisping expects an early blitz that Gastelum’s declining durability won’t handle, recommending Pyfer by KO or under 2.5 rounds.

Gumby said Joe Pyfer is a far safer bet at –380 now that the bout has been moved from high-altitude Salt Lake City to sea-level. He argued Kelvin Gastelum’s only realistic path was to out-cardio Pyfer, a strategy neutered by the venue change. Stylistically, Gastelum never point-fights—he eats a shot to land one—and that plays right into Pyfer’s size (+5" height, +4" reach) and raw power. Gumby noted Pyfer’s lone UFC loss came to Jack Hermansson’s stick-and-move style, something Gastelum has never shown. Wrestling is no bailout either, as Pyfer owns superior takedown metrics. With Gastelum likely to brawl against a man who “should be a weight class higher and is built like a statue,” Gumby sees Pyfer winning inside the distance and considers the money-line parlay or ITD prop the sharp angle.

Guru played Pyfer under 49.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, predicting Pyfer will stop Kelvin Gastelum rather than box him for three rounds. He cited Pyfer’s finishing run—five straight stoppages—and Gastelum’s recent trend of getting hurt in wild exchanges. Because a finish would naturally keep Pyfer’s landed strikes well below 50, the under becomes an indirect bet on an inside-the-distance outcome.

Kunath backed Joe Pyfer to finish Kelvin Gastelum, leaning submission (arm-triangle) but fine with any inside-the-distance ticket. He highlighted Pyfer’s size, reach, youth, athleticism, speed, and punch power advantages, plus the grappling chops learned at a "gym with great grapplers." While acknowledging Gastelum’s legendary durability, Kunath expects Pyfer to back KG up, change levels, secure top position, and showcase jiu-jitsu to make a statement rather than settle for a 15-minute striking decision. With Pyfer only a "smaller big favorite" on a card loaded with chalk, Kunath recommends playing his ITD or sub prop for plus value.