TheWeasle sided with Kevin Holland to score a second-round knockout over the forward-charging Daniel Rodriguez. Rodriguez must push inside to box, but his entries are "very stiff," making him a sitting duck for Holland’s sniper right straight in the open-stance southpaw vs orthodox matchup. Holland enjoys a big reach edge, carries true one-punch power, and is the better grappler if scrambles ensue. With Rodriguez lacking hand speed and footslickness, TheWeasle expects Holland to tag him repeatedly from range, eventually dropping him and finishing with follow-up punches inside two rounds.

Tim Welch projected an easy win for Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez. He highlighted Holland’s four-inch height advantage and longer reach, calling Rodriguez a “decent southpaw” but ultimately “real sloppy.” Welch emphasized that Holland has “more tools,” specifically cleaner boxing and a proven willingness to mix in clinch work and grappling when needed. He pointed to the current betting line of Holland –455 as confirmation the market expects a one-sided fight and stated Holland will likely “walk through that guy” by peppering Rodriguez from range. Welch advised bettors to consider Holland in parlays or as a straight favorite despite the juice because the stylistic edge and recent activity—Holland fought on Sean O’Malley’s last card and stays in shape year-round—make an upset unlikely.

Jim Malaro doubled down on his reputation as the "Kevin Holland whisperer," predicting Holland will hurt Daniel Rodriguez on the feet and lock up a signature choke inside three rounds. The handicap followed Malaro’s trusty checklist: (1) Holland is clearly motivated—only accepting pay-per-view slots and abandoning podcast distractions; (2) his opponent cannot wrestle—Rodriguez has attempted virtually zero offensive takedowns in the UFC; (3) Holland wants the submission record—still annoyed that the Gunnar Nelson finish was ruled an anaconda rather than a d’arce. Malaro called Rodriguez, now 38, a stationary southpaw whose last meaningful win was a split over a gassed Alex Morono, and emphasized that Rodriguez conceded nine takedowns across his last four bouts. Expecting Holland to club Rodriguez, pounce on a neck and get paid without "working by the hour," Malaro recommended Holland inside-the-distance or submission props, fading any decision lines entirely.

Monk cautioned that Kevin Holland’s $9,300 salary carries far more risk than most of the other pay-ups on this 14-fight slate. Although he still expects Holland to win, Monk pointed to a –460 moneyline married to a –170 over 1.5 rounds and nearly 2-to-1 odds the bout sees Round 3. In Monk’s eyes that screams decision rather than an early finish, and a three-round striking match would likely leave Holland in the 75-to-85 point range—well short of smash plays like Dulatov, Ferreira or Gautier who own sub-1.5-round props. He also noted Daniel Rodriguez’s durability (never KO’d in the UFC) and willingness to trade volume that can dampen Holland’s peripheral scoring. Monk will be underweight on Holland compared to the field, only using him when unique builds absolutely need a fifth stud, and will X-out Rodriguez entirely because he still doesn’t see a realistic win path.

Sniper endorsed Kevin Holland at 9,300 even with several other high-end smash spots on the card. Holland is –460 against Daniel Rodriguez and the bout is –190 to finish, numbers he called "a fantastic matchup at the weight class he should be in." Rodriguez will not wrestle, leaving Holland free to dictate range with six-foot-three length, sharp body kicks, and an underrated takedown game if he chooses to mix it in. Sniper highlighted Holland’s lethal front-choke arsenal and noted D-Rod must crash distance, a scenario that plays directly into those submissions. Recent form—stoppages of Gunnar Nelson and Vicente Luque with losses only to elite names like Leon Edwards—has Sniper believing Holland is poised for a welterweight run. He projects 100+ significant strikes or a round-two club-and-sub, putting Holland in the 95-110 point window and ranking him just below Dulatov and Ferreira in his pay-up hierarchy.

Danny Brasco is betting Kevin Holland to win inside the distance (-135) against Daniel Rodriguez. He noted that Holland is finally settled at welterweight, giving him a massive reach and height advantage over most 170-pounders, Rodriguez included. Beyond long straight punches and unorthodox kicks that land from halfway across the cage, Holland’s length fuels dangerous front-headlock chokes such as his signature Darce. Brasco doubts the 38-year-old Rodriguez can withstand that combination of power and grappling creativity for three rounds, making a KO/TKO or submission the most likely outcome.

Dan Tom took Kevin Holland inside the distance at -150 and folded him into parlays, arguing the usually overpriced welterweight is finally in a buy spot. Tom noted Holland thrives in open-stance matchups versus southpaws, pumping a quick jab and reading exchanges well—as seen in the Tim Means fight. He likened the stylistic gap to Ian Garry’s head-kick stoppage of Rodriguez, pointing out Holland shares similar height, reach and hand-speed advantages. Rodriguez has just one TKO loss but is pushing 39 and has slowed considerably, while offering zero takedown threat. Without wrestling to worry about, Tom expects Holland to land a clean right hand or jump on an opportunistic choke, making the -150 ITD price more attractive than the -220 moneyline. He also labeled Holland a DraftKings cash-game "lock" on volume and finishing equity.

Madlab Michael Lurato urged bettors to side with Kevin Holland straight up, calling Daniel Rodriguez a tailor-made opponent. Lurato said Holland’s lone historical flaw—porous takedown defense—will not be tested because Rodriguez rarely wrestles and prefers a stand-and-bang approach. Holland owns an eight-inch reach edge, better footwork, faster hands, and more power at the end of his rangy punches. Rodriguez, now 38, plods forward, is noticeably slower than past foes, and offers no pocket-closing tools. Lurato added that Holland has quietly improved his sprawl and still carries a slick submission game, so the Texan could even flip the script and grapple. He stated he would be "shocked" if Rodriguez wins and sees upside for a finish but believes the safest bet is Holland’s moneyline before the market inflates.

Kunath projected an easy night for Kevin Holland, calling Daniel Rodriguez out-gunned everywhere. Holland is younger, taller, has a massive reach edge, and is far superior on the mat. Rodriguez owns historically poor takedown defense and was d’arced by Neil Magny; Holland’s freakishly long arms make his d’arce and anaconda chokes lethal. Kunath envisions Holland either hurting Rodriguez and snatching a front-headlock, or even proactively wrestling to showcase growth, then finishing the choke just like he did to Vicente Luque. He plans to bet Holland by submission.

Welch picked Kevin Holland to beat Daniel Rodriguez, citing Holland’s 6'3" frame, 81" reach, and willingness to fight anyone anytime—already scheduling a fourth bout for 2025. Holland is 2-2 in his last four but coming off an anaconda choke of Vicente Luque, showing improved grappling. Welch thinks Holland’s length, confidence, and multi-discipline skill set will neutralize Rodriguez’s southpaw boxing.

MMA Guru backed Kevin Holland to beat Daniel Rodriguez by decision. He highlighted Holland’s seven-inch reach advantage and the fact that Rodriguez ‘likes to keep people at the end of his punches,’ something Holland can neutralize with length and kicks. Guru called D-Rod’s fight IQ ‘dumb,’ citing the Neil Magny loss and a late lucky KO over Santiago Ponzinibbio, while praising Holland’s durability after going the distance with Jack Della Maddalena. He expects the bout to cruise past the 10-minute mark he already played on PrizePicks and end 30-27 or 29-28 for Holland because the judges and crowd tend to favor Holland’s busier, flashier striking. Suggested wagers: Holland moneyline, Holland by decision, or a small sprinkle on a late stoppage.

In his PrizePicks slip, MMA Guru played the "more than 10 minutes" square for Holland-Rodriguez. He thinks both men are historically durable: Holland has gone 15 minutes or longer in five of his last seven welterweight bouts, and Rodriguez has never been finished inside a round in the UFC. Neither fighter is a dedicated wrestler, so Guru projects a high-volume kickboxing match that bleeds into at least the middle of round three, making the over 10-minute prop a strong leg for parlays.

Bedtime MMA doubled down on his Holland-Rodriguez take, sharpening the angle for bettors and DFS grinders. He said Holland “takes literally zero damage” in this matchup and forecasted a submission inside the opening round, maybe two rounds at most. The tout cited Holland’s eight-inch reach edge, his nine UFC finishes, and the fact that Rodriguez historically slows when forced to grapple. Because Holland is back at welterweight and tends to hunt early club-and-sub opportunities, Bedtime MMA expects negligible significant strikes absorbed, which means a near-perfect DraftKings score if the quick choke materializes. He recommended betting Holland Round-1 Submission props and loading him in DFS lineups for the early-finish bonus, noting the play carries “underrated EV” because the public is underestimating how wide the skill gap is here.

Bedtime MMA believes Kevin Holland scores a stoppage over Daniel Rodriguez at UFC 318, saying “Holland may be able to finish D-Rod—that’s probably going to happen.” He highlighted Holland’s nine career UFC finishes, his eight-inch reach edge, and Rodriguez’s tendency to slow down in grappling-heavy fights. With Holland back at welterweight and likely to push a higher pace, the tout expects a submission or club-and-sub inside the final two rounds. That makes Holland inside-the-distance and round-prop plays attractive plus-money spots, and gives DFS players a ceiling worth targeting.