John Murray said sharp bettors immediately scooped up Las Vegas +3.5 for Week 1 at New England because he believes the opening number overrates the Patriots. Murray pointed to the growing buzz around Drake May, an aggressive free-agent spree, and the hiring of Mike Vrabel as narrative drivers that have already been fully priced into the market. With public perception likely pushing the Pats higher all summer, Murray expects New England to be an early-season ‘sell’ and views +3.5 as clear value, predicting the Raiders can keep the game inside a field goal or win outright.

Evan Abrams countered that the best numbers on this game already belong to New England. He sees a flat –2.5 (-110) in the marketplace and projects the line to close at Patriots –3.5 once summer hype around Drake May, Mike Vrabel and the overhauled roster gains traction. Abrams framed it purely as a numbers play: lock in –2.5 now, bank the likely 1- to 1.5-point of closing-line equity, and, if desired, buy back on Las Vegas at +3.5 just before kickoff. He does not expect the spread to finish under a field goal barring major injury news, making today’s –2.5 the best of the number for Patriots backers.

Chris Raybon said he will only get involved on the Raiders side of the Week 1 matchup if the spread drifts back to +3.5 or better. His logic: this is Drake May’s first real NFL action with an almost entirely new receiving corps (Stefon Diggs and rookie Marvin Williams expected to headline) plus a brand-new coaching staff, offensive line shuffles and Diggs rehabbing an offseason injury. Historically, rookie quarterbacks favored in their debut cover just 43 %, and Raybon doubts May will be fully in sync by September. By contrast, Las Vegas brings a higher “floor” than the market is pricing—veteran head coach Pete Carroll and an experienced Geno Smith should stabilize a roster that otherwise looked headed for a rebuild. Raybon thinks public enthusiasm for New England will push the number north of a field goal, at which point Raiders tickets provide both closing-line value and what he calls “the materially better side.”

Raybon said he is eyeing the Raiders +3.5 (and anything above a field goal) at home against New England because early hype around the Patriots has pushed the line too far. He noted that Week 1 will feature Drake May’s first real action with an almost entirely new receiving corps—Stefon Diggs, Rome Odunze and an incumbent depth piece—leaving timing concerns that rarely gel by September. While Raybon loves New England’s long-term outlook (he bet their season win total months ago), he argued that rookie quarterbacks historically cover only 43 % in their first NFL start when favored. The Raiders retained continuity on offense, upgraded their pass rush with Christian Wilkins and added a proven offensive mind in Kliff Kingsbury, making them closer to league-average than market perception. Raybon expects this line to settle near Patriots –2 once sharper money fades the preseason Patriots buzz, so grabbing +3.5 now offers valuable cushion around the key number of three.