Despite the West-to-East travel, Prisco likes Justin Herbert to carve up Jacksonville, highlighting that the Jaguars rank 31st in pressure rate (18%) and 29th in opponent completion percentage (69%). With no consistent pass rush or sticky perimeter coverage, Prisco projected a stat line in the neighborhood of 280-300 yards and two touchdowns, enough to propel the Chargers to a 27-20 road win as 3-point favorites. He advised DFS players to stack Herbert with one of his wideouts at modest ownership given the soft matchup and a Vegas total hovering near 48 points.

Calling it his favorite underdog moneyline of the season, Dougherty fired on the Chargers at +190. Los Angeles expects Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Gerald Everett back after full Friday practices, while Kansas City already ruled out Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Dougherty doubts Kadarius Toney can replace that production in just his third start with Patrick Mahomes and reminds bettors that Derwin James held Travis Kelce to his worst game of the season in their first meeting. He pegs this as a race to 28 points and trusts the healthier, more desperate Chargers to get there first.

Sean Tomlinson said Oronde Gadsden is a +180 anytime-TD bet because Jacksonville is nearly as bad against tight ends as Indianapolis, the team Gadsden torched for 164 yards two weeks ago. He noted last week’s 3-catch, 13-yard dud was the rookie’s only slip after four straight 60-plus-yard outings. The Jaguars have surrendered the 7th-most yards, 4th-most receptions, and are tied for the 2nd-most touchdowns allowed to TEs (7). Tomlinson expects those matchup metrics, combined with Gadsden’s recent involvement, to put him back in the end zone.

Doug Burrell recommended backing the Chargers at –2.5, noting that his model makes the game Chargers –4 and therefore flags the current line as a buying opportunity. He pointed to Los Angeles converting 48.95% of its third-down plays (4th-best in the league) while allowing only 34.2% on defense, a combination that consistently flips field position. The Bolts have held opposing quarterbacks to a 38% completion rate when pressured and have surrendered just one touchdown on deep throws while forcing five interceptions, numbers Burrell believes matter against a Jacksonville team that has been living on shot plays. The Jaguars just blew a 26-point fourth-quarter lead to Houston and lost two-way weapon Travis Hunter for the season, a double-whammy to both their offense and secondary. Jacksonville trails the Chargers in total yards gained and allowed and has been leaking explosive plays defensively. With Los Angeles riding a three-game win streak and owning a sizeable edge in situational metrics, Burrell argued the market is still a point and a half light.

Scott Kellen grabbed Jacksonville +3, reminding bettors that every Chargers road opponent so far (Raiders, Giants, Dolphins, Titans) grades poorly. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is 3-0 at home with wins over Carolina, Houston and Kansas City and tends to control the trenches there. Kellen projected a 23-20 Jaguars outright win.

Matt Bowen took the Chargers’ team total OVER 23.5, citing Justin Herbert’s five-game run of 24-plus points and a Jacksonville defense surrendering 24.4 PPG and 252.9 passing yards. Bowen expects Herbert to pick apart the Jags’ zone-heavy looks, predicting a pass-centric script that pushes Los Angeles past four touchdowns for the sixth straight week.

Everett laid the field goal with L.A., pointing to Jacksonville’s meltdown last week—outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter by Houston—and its slide to 5-4. The Chargers have rebounded from a 1-3 funk by thumping Minnesota, Tennessee and Pittsburgh 89-40, moving to 7-3. Although concerned about the Bolts’ offensive line, Everett doubts the Jaguars can exploit it, making -3 a buy.

Taking Los Angeles ‑2.5, MacMillan reiterates his stance that Jacksonville is the league’s most fraudulent team after four straight ATS losses. The Jaguars are 17th in DVOA and 27th in Net Yards per Play, while Trevor Lawrence sits 31st among starters in EPA plus CPOE—only Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel are worse. Over the last three games the Chargers lead the NFL in opponent EPA per play and success rate, and MacMillan expects that resurgent defense to harass Lawrence behind a shaky Jags line despite L.A.’s own OL concerns.

Tyler Shoemaker grabbed the Chargers -3 against Pittsburgh, calling it a clear edge based on multiple projections. His T Shoe Index lines the game at LA -5.5, while a separate market-based estimation formula spits out LA -9, gifting bettors 2.5–6 full points of spread value early in the week. Shoemaker also noted that the Steelers are just 1-2 ATS on the road and are flying west after an emotional, upset win over Indianapolis— a classic flat spot. With Jim Harbaugh’s group healthy and at home, Shoemaker believes the Chargers are in a strong position to win and cover before the hook re-appears.