Sean John Lanfranca’s favorite prop is Rodriguez-Robertson to end by KO/TKO at +550. He highlighted Gillian Robertson’s improved ground-and-pound—citing her stoppage of Piera Rodriguez—while reminding listeners Marina Rodriguez landed 144 significant strikes on Mackenzie Dern and knocked out Amanda Ribas. Lanfranca believes even two clean minutes on the feet could spell doom for Robertson, whereas sustained top control gives Robertson ample elbow opportunities. He is also sprinkling Rodriguez KO at 10-1 and round-1/2 KO at 15-1, but views the generic fight-ends-by-KO number as the safest angle because he estimates a strike finish occurs over 25 percent of the time, far above the implied 15 percent.

Millz Young accepted the steam that pushed Gillian Robertson from –200 to roughly –300, citing a massive grappling edge. Rodriguez owns signature striking wins over Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan but has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers in each of her UFC losses. Robertson’s game plan is straightforward: clinch, trip, take the back and hunt the rear-naked choke—an approach bolstered by her improved physicality since dropping to 115 pounds. Millz did warn that if she can’t get early takedowns, Rodriguez could box her up, yet he still views Robertson by sub or dominant decision as the most likely outcome and the betting side.

The Weasle called Jillian Robertson a tap-out waiting to happen for Marina Rodriguez, predicting a Round-2 submission. Since 2019 Rodriguez has been taken down by every opponent, often flopping like Carlos Condit against basic doubles and singles. Robertson’s striking is below average, but her wrestling is competent enough to drag the fight down or even jump guillotines if necessary. Once on the mat, Robertson’s top control and slick BJJ make her, in The Weasle’s words, "an absolute monster." Bettors should target Robertson by submission props and Round-2 finish sprinklings.

Rabbi Mort leaned toward Gillian Robertson by decision at +110, arguing that Rodriguez is durable enough to survive but will spend long stretches pinned to the canvas. Mort highlighted that Rodriguez went the distance with grapplers like Virna Jandiroba and Amanda Lemos, so trusting Robertson’s sub prop feels dicey. Instead, he expects Robertson to rack up control time and win minutes once she secures takedowns. Mort noted Robertson now trains striking locally and is competent enough on the feet to set up entries, while Rodriguez’s 37-year-old legs are less likely to scramble back up quickly. He called the +110 decision price "most likely outcome" and suggested Round-3/Decision double-chance for added safety.

Matty Betss said Gillian Robertson is poised for a breakout, advising bettors to attack her Round-3/Decision double-chance or even the straight Round-3 prop. Robertson’s boxing has improved under Boca Boxing, giving her the tools to close distance on the 37-year-old Marina Rodriguez. Betss stressed that Rodriguez has been taken down in every UFC bout but one, and Robertson’s suffocating top game prevents referees from forcing stand-ups—unlike what happened to Iasmin Lucindo. He added that Robertson is 29 and entering her prime while Rodriguez is on the way out, calling this a perfect storm for a late stoppage. Markets he mentioned: Round-3 (+900 range at open) and the Round-3 or Decision combo currently +170.

DFS Army said Gillian Robertson is one of only two core pieces he is locking into DraftKings lineups. At $9,200 and –310 on the money line, Robertson brings everything Marina Rodriguez historically struggles with. Rodriguez has surrendered 5+ takedowns to Carla Esparza and three to Virna Jandiroba, posting four losses in her last five when faced with real wrestlers. Robertson, still just 29, now pairs her black-belt BJJ with improved wrestling that gets the fight to the mat far more reliably than early in her career. She averages 102 DK points in finishes and a still-elite 99 in decisions—18 % above the strawweight norm—thanks to relentless ground-and-pound that piles on significant strikes before hunting the neck. The host projects 2–3 takedowns, heavy top control and a Round-2 or Round-3 submission, forecasting a 10-11× salary return and labeling the fight-does-NOT-go-the-distance prop as the sharper angle than the –135 decision line. He cautioned that if Robertson cannot wrestle, she could be finished on the feet, but views that as a low-probability outcome and will be overweight on Robertson in both cash and GPP builds.

Andy Lang echoed the Under 2.5 recommendation, noting that either woman can finish inside fifteen minutes. He agreed that Rodriguez’s porous takedown defense makes her unlikely to survive prolonged top pressure from Robertson, who "doesn’t wrestle for points—she drops hammer-fists." On the flip side, Lang warned that if Gillian struggles to wrestle, Marina’s boxing could end the fight quickly, citing the Brazilian’s history of brutalizing Michelle Waterson-Gomez. Because both finishing conditions are realistic and plus money is available, Lang labeled the Under the only way he is attacking this fight.

Jim Malaro advised abandoning the money-line debate and attacking the total, taking Under 2.5 rounds or Fight-Doesn’t-Go-Distance at plus money. He argued that Rodriguez’s takedown-defense issues (Lysindo dragged her down with a basic body-lock) spell disaster if Robertson gets top position because the Canadian hunts mount, drops elbows, and chases armbars rather than simply riding. Conversely, if Robertson can’t ground the fight, Rodriguez owns a massive striking edge and, per Malaro, is "absolutely live for the KO." With both finishing paths live and no appetite for picking a side, he called the Under the smartest wager on the bout.

Jim Malaro backed Jillian Robertson to out-grapple Marina Rodriguez. He highlighted Robertson’s transformation after committing fully to her wrestling: she leads all women’s divisions in UFC submission wins and has embraced a bully style since dropping to strawweight. Marina is 38—an age Malaro equated to roughly 41 in the men’s divisions—and although not yet washed, that is late for a weight class built on speed and scrambles. Malaro thinks Robertson’s takedown entries and top control, which flummoxed Piera Rodriguez and others, will again dictate the fight. He is looking at Robertson moneyline and will sprinkle the submission prop if the price is +300 or better.

Monk called Gillian Robertson a cornerstone spend-up at $9,200, predicting a takedown-driven mauling of Marina Rodriguez. Robertson has made the DraftKings optimal in 3 of her last 6 wins and averages 102 DK points in victories—18% above the strawweight norm. Rodriguez has surrendered 5+ takedowns to Carla Esparza, 3 to Virna Jandiroba, and even 1 apiece to striker-first foes Amanda Lemos and Jessica Andrade, illustrating her chronic inability to stay upright. Monk emphasized Robertson’s improvements in wrestling entries—once her career weakness—and raved about her “mean” top game that mixes ground-and-pound with opportunistic subs. He projects an easy 10-11× return with realistic Round-2/3 submission equity and labeled Robertson one of only two true core plays on a slate light on reliable finishers.

Paul Shaughnessy conceded Jillian Robertson is the rightful favorite but still fired 0.3 units on Marina Rodriguez by knockout at 10-to-1. His logic: Rodriguez’s only viable path is a finish—she owns some of the heaviest hands in the division, and Robertson occasionally gives up dominant positions while fishing for submissions, creating stand-ups and scramble windows for a big shot. Paul flagged tape from the Lucindo fight where Rodriguez’s under-hook issues led to takedowns yet she repeatedly sat up and threw hard elbows, the kind that can swing women’s bouts. Because Rodriguez has never been subbed despite Verna Jandiroba’s full-fight top control, Paul doubts Robertson just walks to an easy choke. Most likely outcome remains a Robertson decision, but the KO number is far longer than the true probability in a cage-fight, making it a worthwhile lottery ticket in his betting portfolio.

Cody Saftic backed Jillian Robertson to win a clear decision at roughly +150, pointing to Marina Rodriguez’s chronic takedown defense issues. Rodriguez has been dragged to the mat by each of her last 11 opponents—22 takedowns surrendered—and at 38 is unlikely to patch that leak. Robertson, meanwhile, has won five of her last six by relentlessly grappling: two takedowns on Michelle Waterson, five on Luana Pinheiro, two on Polyana Viana. Since linking with Dean Thomas and cross-training at Goat Shed, she prioritizes position over wild submission hunts, a shift Cody thinks will mute Rodriguez’s KO power. He admits Robertson’s penchant for chasing subs could spark scrambles, but if she sticks to the steady top-control game that has produced a three-fight streak, Rodriguez will spend double-digit minutes on her back. Play Robertson by decision, parlay the money-line if chalk drops, and consider fight-goes-distance if you fear a late armbar.

Kunath reluctantly faded his long-time favorite Marina Rodriguez, predicting Gillian Robertson mauls her on the mat for a referee-forced TKO. Rodriguez’s takedown defense has betrayed her for years, and Robertson has built a career around dragging opponents down and keeping them there. Even in recent decision wins Robertson still holds a 75 percent UFC finish rate, often requiring the ref to intervene once elbows start flying. Kunath believes that exact script plays out: Rodriguez gets planted early, fails to scramble, and eats unanswered ground-and-pound until the official steps in. With odds still modest at recording time, he labeled Robertson inside-the-distance one of the better bets on the card and a smash DFS play thanks to control-time, strike volume, and finish upside.

Gumby Vreeland targeted Underdog Fantasy’s pick-em line of 36.5 significant strikes for Marina Rodriguez and advised playing the ‘higher’ side. He reasoned that Jillian Robertson’s clearest path is an early submission, but if that does not materialize the fight should extend and give Rodriguez—who averages 5.52 sig strikes per minute—plenty of time to clear 37 landed shots. Vreeland noted Rodriguez has topped that number in six of her last eight UFC appearances that reached the second round and expects Robertson’s takedown attempts to be stuffed often enough for a prolonged striking battle.

MMA Guru picked Marina Rodriguez to spring the +260 upset over Gillian Robertson, predicting either a late-round TKO or a clear damage-based decision. Guru acknowledged Rodriguez has been taken down by Virna Jandiroba, Mackenzie Dern and even prospect Yasmin Lucindo, yet stressed that she consistently survives, scrambles and avoids being finished – notably escaping several deep Dern submission attempts. He argued Robertson’s wrestling is a tier below those names and that the Canadian lacks top-pressure heaviness, so single takedowns will be harder to secure in the Des Moines full-size cage. Meanwhile Rodriguez’s striking edge is massive: once she lands a few clean combinations she enters a “flow state,” increasing volume and making Robertson’s level-change entries obvious. Guru noted Robertson owns the most submission wins in women’s UFC history, but called her “so bad on the feet” that she will fall behind quickly. Because judges reward damage first, and Rodriguez has five-round experience, Guru advised taking Rodriguez moneyline and sprinkling the Round 3 or decision props.

Bedtime MMA flagged Marina Rodriguez as a 2-to-1 underdog worth a swing versus Gillian Robertson. He argued Robertson’s favorite status is based on beating “jobbers”— Michelle Waterson, Luana Pinheiro— and she even lost to Tabatha Ricci. Rodriguez, meanwhile, only drops razor decisions to top-5 strawweights like Jessica Andrade and Lucindo. With the Brazilian’s more complete striking-plus-takedown-defense toolkit, the tout expects Rodriguez to stuff enough shots and out-point Robertson for an upset decision.

Jeff Fox fired on Gillian “The Savage” Robertson at –320 despite acknowledging her striking is perpetually sub-par. Fox’s case centers on Rodriguez’s recent skid— two losses in her last three, both to primary grapplers— and the fact she has historically struggled once fights hit the mat. Robertson owns nine career submissions and is riding a 3-fight UFC win streak in which she averaged 4.3 takedowns per 15 minutes. Fox believes that blueprint repeats here: Robertson drags the fight down, works toward dominant positions, and either snatches a choke or racks up control time for a clear decision. Given Marina’s trending downward form and Robertson’s proven finishing ability, Fox is comfortable laying the chalk and will look at submission-prop sweeteners.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed Marina Rodriguez at +260, calling the number "way too wide" because Robertson’s offensive wrestling still lags behind her submission skills. He reminded listeners that Rodriguez stuffed four of seven shots from Virna Jandiroba— an elite wrestler who just mauled Xiaonan Yan— and survived more than a dozen grappling sequences with Mackenzie Dern over 25 minutes without being tapped. Rodriguez has never been submitted in 24 pro bouts and has only been KO’d once. Vreeland doubts Robertson can consistently get her down and, if she does, keep her there long enough to work a finish. On the feet Rodriguez lands 5.37 significant strikes per minute and carries a +1.60 differential, numbers Robertson (2.83 landed, –0.06 differential) cannot match. If takedowns are neutralized, Gumby predicts Rodriguez out-points the Canadian and cashes as a live dog.