Lonte Smith targeted the game total instead of a side, recommending Over 8–8.5 in Mariners‑Blue Jays. He highlighted a sudden spike in Seattle’s offense: the M’s are 7‑3 their last ten, have plated five‑plus runs in half of those contests, four‑plus in eight, and are up to a .230 average in that window after sitting .218 on the season. On the road they have been even better—.270 batting average, 10.3 hits and 5.4 runs per nine across just six games. Smith noted Jose Berrios’ recent wobble (four‑plus earned in two of three outings, contact rate climbing, five homers already surrendered) as the key vulnerability, while Luis Castillo hasn’t been sharp for a year and was tagged by Cincinnati last time out. With both teams’ lineups showing life and the two name‑brand starters underperforming, he projected a 6‑5 type game and advised betting the Over before the number nudges to 9.

Scott Reichel called Toronto a value play at +105, arguing the market is overrating Luis Castillo relative to Jose Berrios and ignoring how punch‑less Seattle’s bats have been. The Mariners have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their first ten road games and own the league’s third‑worst strikeout rate. Castillo was tagged for five earned by Cincinnati last weekend and has surrendered a .288 xBA his second time through lineups. Meanwhile, Berrios has been lights‑out at Rogers Centre since last July (2.47 ERA, 0.89 WHIP across nine home starts). Toronto is 7‑3 at home, carries a 112 wRC+ versus right‑handed pitching, and bolsters Berrios with a bullpen that ranks fourth in K/BB ratio. Reichel sees near‑even pitching and a substantial offensive edge for the Jays; he would play the dog down to +100.

Purviance wants to fade Logan Gilbert’s K prop if books hang their usual lofty number (7.0–7.5). He pointed out Toronto is third‑best in baseball at avoiding strikeouts (6.89 per game) and just held Spencer Strider to five Ks on 97 pitches in his return. Because oddsmakers routinely inflate Gilbert’s totals, Purviance will look for plus money on an under or alt‑under once lines post. He believes the Blue Jays’ contact‑heavy approach and Gilbert’s tendency to pitch to contact make the under the sharp side.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Toronto money line on the grounds that Seattle ace Logan Gilbert has not yet pitched outside T‑Mobile Park this season after posting noticeably weaker road splits in 2024 (4.12 ERA away compared to 2.67 at home last year). The tout pointed to recent series history—Toronto has won five of the last seven meetings—and added that Jose Berrios has rebounded with a 3.57 ERA in April. Offensively, Seattle owns an MLB‑worst .531 OPS with runners in scoring position while the Jays sit 21st at .664, giving Toronto the edge in a matchup where every scoring chance matters. Past performance in the matchup, the road/travel angle for Gilbert, and the Blue Jays’ home‑field edge at Rogers Centre all combined to make Toronto the recommended side play.

Cash Out Sports Picks doubled down on the same game by recommending the full‑game under. Neither club is cashing in with men on—Seattle’s .531 RISP OPS ranks dead last, and Toronto’s .664 mark sits 21st. Six of the last nine head‑to‑head games have stayed beneath the posted total, and both starters offer ceiling: Logan Gilbert owns swing‑and‑miss stuff while Jose Berrios has a 3.57 ERA this month. The handicapper noted that run production has been especially muted when these teams face each other, and with both lineups scuffling for clutch hits, he expects another low‑scoring affair at Rogers Centre.

Romanelli played both the Blue Jays moneyline and their team‑total OVER. He remains concerned about Luis Castillo’s trending problems: sub‑1 K/9 rate, 1.41 WHIP, 10 walks and 20 hits allowed, plus a homer in three of four outings, punctuated by six earned in Cincinnati. Jose Berrios’ surface ERA is worse, yet Toronto has won each of his last three starts while plating 5‑7 runs in support. With the lineup clicking and Castillo’s command wavering, Ron expects another 5‑7 run outburst and believes Berrios is the steadier arm right now. Verdict: Blue Jays and their team total.

The Mariners opened as -126 road favorites behind Logan Gilbert, but Data Skrive’s projection prefers the Blue Jays at +106, noting Toronto’s 12‑8 record and three‑game winning streak. The algorithm also projects the total to clear 8 runs, hinting at run support for Jose Berrios against a Seattle bullpen that has struggled on travel days. Bettors can grab the home underdog plus the over for a correlated payout.

Kingpin grabbed Seattle on the moneyline, trusting Luis Castillo’s 28% K rate and .192 xBA against. Jose Berrios sports a 6.75 ERA at Rogers Centre and a .386 wOBA allowed first trip through lineups. The Jays’ heavy right‑handed power mitigates Rogers Centre’s dimensions for Castillo’s changeup/slider mix, while Seattle’s bullpen (2.91 ERA) outclasses Toronto’s middle relief.

Kingpin took Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases. Julio owns a .410 xwOBA in his last 40 batted balls and feasts on sinkers—Berrios’ most‑used pitch—which he’s slugging .720 against. With hard contact climbing and Berrios giving up a 46% hard‑hit rate, Kingpin expects at least a double or multi‑hit day from the 2022 ROY.

Daniel Vreeland laid out a case for betting the No Runs First Inning prop at -130 in Seattle‑Toronto. He pointed to Jose Berrios’ recent bounce‑back stretch—12.2 IP, only 3 ER combined against Boston and Washington—as evidence that he can quiet a Seattle lineup that sits just ahead of Washington and well behind Boston in season‑long run production. On the flip side, Logan Gilbert brings a 2.38 ERA into Saturday and has surrendered more than one earned run in just one of four starts. Vreeland cited league‑wide data (the Pirates’ 0.35 first‑inning runs average was mistakenly referenced but underscores how low‑scoring he expects the frame to be) and the improved pitching matchup compared to Friday’s series opener to justify the NRFI play.

Peterson grabbed Blue Jays +110, making them ‑106 on his own line and pairing it with Under 8.5 (projected 7.7). He stressed Jose Berrios’ dominant Rogers Centre resume: career 3.58 ERA, <1 HR/9 and 9.1 K/9 at home versus 4.66 ERA and 1.5 HR/9 on the road. He contrasted that with Logan Gilbert’s shakier road command (3.83 K/BB away vs 6.38 at home). Bullpens are close (Toronto 11th, Seattle 17th in ERA entering Friday). With the better home starter and comparable relief corps, Peterson sees value on Toronto and expects runs to be scarce.

Chris Ruffolo recommended Cal Raleigh at +245 to homer even though it means betting against his beloved Blue Jays. Raleigh has eight bombs already, six off right‑handers, and seven of those have come in his last 11 games. Although Bowden Francis is an underrated part of Toronto’s rotation, Ruffolo noted that Raleigh’s pull‑side power matches up well with Francis’ tendency to leave cutters over the inner half. With Raleigh locked in, Ruffolo expects the switch‑hitting catcher to keep the power binge rolling.

Kenny G gave a small but actionable lean to Seattle at –115, hinging on the starting‑pitching gap. Bryan Woo is 2‑0 with a 2.84 ERA and is coming off seven innings of one‑run, seven‑strikeout ball against Texas. Bowden Francis counters with a 3.71 ERA but just served up two homers and five total runs (three earned) to Baltimore in 5.2 frames. The Mariners lineup is heating up—11, 6, 4, 3 and 9 runs their past five games—while Toronto sits only 15th in runs despite ranking top‑6 in average and OBP, suggesting sequencing luck that may not flip against Woo’s plus command. Bullpens are essentially a wash (Seattle 3.71, Toronto 3.48), and the Jays’ offense has been far less explosive against righties with a slider/cutter mix similar to Woo’s. Kenny trusts the better arm and the hotter sticks, pricing Seattle closer to –125.

Scott Reichel backed the Blue Jays at roughly +100, arguing the market is underrating Toronto’s home/road edge and Seattle’s relief issues. The Jays sit 11‑8 overall and an impressive 7‑3 at Rogers Centre, while the Mariners have played only six road games all season and Thursday’s extra‑inning win in Cincinnati was just their second road victory. Reichel expects a low‑scoring start—Bryan Wu owns a 2.84 ERA and Bowden Francis carries a serviceable 3.71 mark with six innings of two‑run ball in his lone home outing—yet trusts Toronto’s lineup, fresh off Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s first homer, to crack a Mariners bullpen that “has not been great this season at all.” Calling the matchup a true coin flip, Reichel felt even‑money was more than fair and labeled the Blue Jays moneyline his preferred wager.

Reichel leaned to the Under 8.0 in Seattle‑Toronto despite the Mariners erupting for 11 runs Thursday. He praised Bryan Woo’s early 2.84 ERA and 30% strikeout rate and noted Bowden Francis’ lone Rogers Centre start produced six innings of two‑run ball. Seattle’s lineup sits bottom‑six in wRC+ and has been wildly inconsistent, while Toronto’s offense is merely league‑average versus righties (102 wRC+). Both clubs boast top‑10 bullpens in K‑BB%, further suppressing late offense. Reichel is willing to dare the M’s to post another crooked number, projecting a 4‑3 type contest and making the Under his play.

Joe O'Rico recommended Jorge Polanco (24 % rostered) as a middle‑infield add in 12‑team leagues, even with T‑Mobile Park muting offense. Polanco owns a 12 % barrel rate, career‑best 41 % hard‑hit rate, and walks at a double‑digit clip, supporting his typical 117‑124 WRC+ range from 2021‑23. Injuries sunk last season, but the underlying batted‑ball profile has rebounded, and his multi‑position eligibility helps patch MI holes while managers wait on names like Zach Neto. O'Rico views him as a steady OBP source with 15‑20 HR upside.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the full‑game under in Seattle‑Toronto. He pointed out that Mariners contests are 9‑8‑2 to the under and average 8.63 total runs, while Blue Jays games have cashed the under 12 of 19 times and sit at 7.79 runs overall. Last season the clubs averaged just 7.2 runs in six meetings, with the under hitting four times. The tout highlighted Bryce Wu’s quiet breakout—six‑plus innings every start, only two walks and one homer allowed in his last two appearances—and Bowden Francis’ ability to keep hitters in check despite walk issues (5.1+ innings each outing). With both offenses near league average (Seattle 4.26 runs, Toronto 4.00) and 21 combined unders already on the books, he projected another low‑scoring tilt and recommended the under at Rogers Centre.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Seattle after six wins in seven games and an emotional 11‑7, 10‑inning comeback in Cincinnati. Bryce Wu has delivered a 14‑6 K‑BB ratio across 19 innings while allowing just six earned runs; when he starts, the Mariners are 10‑6 in their last 16. Bowden Francis has been less steady for Toronto (7 ER, 7 BB over 17 IP) and has lost back‑to‑back starts. The Jays’ offense remains uneven—Vlad Guerrero Jr. only just hit his first homer—whereas Seattle enters with confidence despite a taxed bullpen. The tout expects Wu’s efficiency and the M’s recent form to overcome any travel fatigue and secure another road win.

Carty recommends OVER 0.5 HR for Vladimir Guerrero Jr at +525. With the Rogers Centre roof closed, temperature conditions simulate a 5‑degree bump versus outdoor parks, and the venue’s 10th‑shallowest CF dimension plays smaller. THE BAT X assigns a 19% HR probability, good for an $18.88 EV.

Ronald Cabang played Mariners First‑5 moneyline at -115. Bryan Woo has given up only six earned in 19 IP with a sub‑3.00 xERA and has gone 6+ innings in all three starts. Toronto’s offense owns just a 0.117 ISO and ranks bottom‑five in barrel rate (6.4%), making Woo’s swing‑and‑miss arsenal even tougher. Bowden Francis sports a 5.98 xERA, 2.12 HR/9, and nine earned over his first 17 IP, giving Seattle a pronounced starting‑pitching edge. Cabang expects the M’s to be ahead through five before bullpens get involved.

Peterson took the Blue Jays at +101 (made them -136). Since the 2024 All‑Star break Bowden Francis sports a 2.20 ERA and 1.6 BB/9, whereas Bryan Woo’s ERA (2.89) hides a higher 3.36 FIP and his K/9 has dipped to 7.6. Seattle torched its bullpen in a 10‑inning game Thursday and ranks 17th in relief ERA; Toronto sits 11th and is fresh. Add the home park edge and the Jays rate as sizeable favorites in Peterson’s model.

Just A Bet Outside strongly advocates betting Cal Raleigh to record an RBI (+145 DraftKings). Raleigh has been red-hot lately with at least one RBI in four of his last five games, and multiple RBIs in three of those contests. He holds a strong hitting background (5-for-14, three extra-base hits) against pitcher Brady Singer, suggesting he's comfortable and sees Singer's pitches well. Supported by a Mariners lineup that has significantly improved their offense, particularly on the road and most recently in Cincinnati, this presents Raleigh as a prime candidate to produce again in the matchup.