Kenny G said he would lay the –150 juice on Pittsburgh because Bailey Falter gives the Pirates a more reliable baseline than Cal Quantrill. Falter owns a 3.49 ERA and Pittsburgh has cashed four of his last five starts, while Quantrill carries a season-long 5.63 ERA and is backed by the sixth-worst bullpen in baseball (4.67 ERA). Kenny acknowledged Quantrill’s recent run of four straight outings with two earned runs or fewer but noted Miami’s stagnant offense—just eight total runs over its last three games and rankings of 23rd in runs and 21st in slugging. Pittsburgh’s bats are no juggernaut (29th in runs, 30th in slugging), yet they had won four straight before Tuesday and face the Marlins’ shaky relief corps late. With comparable pens and a better recent starter/ team form split, Kenny felt the Buccos are the only playable side even if the price is slightly rich.

Eric Pathy said his daily 'auto-dog' system fires on the Miami Marlins in Thursday’s early game at Pittsburgh. The Marlins cashed the previous night as +123 (23-cent) underdogs and, despite that win, the market moved against them to +128 (28-cent) for the 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Pathy explained that whenever a dog wins and then re-opens at an even bigger price with no new information, his model blindly rolls the profits into the same side. He labeled it a complimentary syndicate play for anyone who is not part of his paid Dime Club service and advised bettors to grab the moneyline before further steam shows.

Perrault recommended taking the Pirates on the money line against Miami because Sandy Alcantara has been dreadful outside South Florida: 0-4 in five road starts with a 12.81 ERA, 28 ER in 19.2 IP and a .366 batting average against. The Marlins are a "complete dumpster fire," while Pittsburgh has won four straight (scores of 5-4, 2-1, 2-1, 10-3) and is at home with Mitch Keller on the mound. Although Keller’s PNC numbers are mediocre, Perrault views the cheap ML price as a gift given Alcantara’s persistent blow-ups (4+ ER in four of five road outings).

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Pittsburgh on the moneyline, stressing current form over name value. The Pirates have won four straight—including a sweep of Philadelphia and Monday’s 10-3 win over Miami—while the Marlins have dropped seven of eight. He acknowledged Sandy Alcantara’s reputation but highlighted the reality: the right-hander allowed three or more runs in nine consecutive outings prior to silencing the hapless Rockies. Mitch Keller has pitched better than his 1-8 record indicates; a lack of run support, not performance, has hurt him. In a matchup where both starters are volatile, the tout prefers the club riding the winning streak and fading the overvalued ace.

Kenny G recommended laying the short –126 price with the Pirates in Game 2 versus Miami, reasoning that every matchup angle favors Pittsburgh. Sandy Alcantara’s nightmare season (2-7, 7.89 ERA) continued despite a "good" outing against Colorado, and Kenny pointed out that his only prior 2025 start vs. Pittsburgh lasted just 4.2 innings with two earned. Miami’s bullpen remains a liability (6th-worst, 4.50+ ERA) and the lineup ranks 23rd in runs and 21st in SLG, producing three runs or fewer in five of its last seven. Meanwhile, Mitch Keller has pitched better than his 1-8 record suggests (4.13 ERA) and already spun six strong frames of one-run ball to beat Miami on Opening Day. The Bucs have quietly won four straight (swept Philadelphia and took Game 1 10-3), their pen has trimmed its ERA to 4.22, and even the anemic offense has shown signs of life with 10-2-2-5 runs their past four. Kenny believes Keller finally gets run support here and the Pirates’ current form makes –126 a fair wagering number.

Kenny G advised playing the Pirates at –118 against Miami. His primary angle is fading 22-year-old Uri Perez, who makes his first major-league start of the season after a stint on the injured list. Kenny pointed out how often young arms struggle in debut spots and highlighted Miami’s shaky relief corps (4.54 bullpen ERA—7th worst in MLB). Offensively, the Marlins are sputtering: they rank 23rd in runs and 21st in slugging and have produced 3 or fewer runs in five of their last six. On the Pittsburgh side, right-hander Mike Burrows finally flashed upside in his last turn, throwing 5.2 scoreless innings with six Ks and zero walks versus Houston. The Pirates have quietly won four of five, including a sweep of the Phillies, and Kenny believes their modest upward momentum plus home-field edge justifies the price. He added that an under 8.5 is also defensible given both slumping lineups, but the money-line play is his core recommendation.

Bryan Power said the Pirates are a short-priced buy at –110 on Monday because the Marlins limp in 1-6 over their last seven with the lone victory needing extra innings. Miami is throwing Uri Perez in his first big-league start since 2023 and first since Tommy John surgery, a spot Power labeled extremely shaky. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh counters with rookie Mike Burrows, who just blanked Houston for 5⅔ innings (6 K, 0 BB) in a 3-0 win. The Pirates swept the Phillies over the weekend and are 14-14 since firing Derek Shelton, which Power notes is perfectly serviceable given the matchup. Add home field and Perez’s long layoff, and he views the Bucs as flat-out underpriced.

Eric Lindquist said he is locking in Rowdy Tellez to hit a home run at any number better than +420 for Monday’s slate in Arizona. Lindquist expects Tellez to move up from the 6-spot to the 5-spot if Cal Raleigh slides into the 2-hole, which would give Tellez an extra plate appearance and a higher probability of the one batted-ball event bettors need. He backed the play with underlying metrics—Tellez owns a 48.2% hard-hit rate, .500 expected slugging, and a 17.5-degree launch angle that sits squarely in Lindquist’s preferred HR sweet-spot window. Because Chase Field boosts left-handed power and the line is opening around +420, Lindquist considers anything longer an automatic wager rather than a mere lean.