Monk named Martin Buday his official “kill shot” for the slate, calling the $7,100 heavyweight the sneakiest leverage piece on DraftKings. He expects Buday to check in at single-digit ownership because the field views him as a plodding, low-volume clincher, yet Buday actually averages almost five significant strikes per minute and peaks above that in Round 2. Monk stressed that Almeida is a one-dimensional submission hunter who has never had to absorb real volume; if the takedown stalls, Almeida offers almost no striking. Buday’s granite 100 % UFC takedown defense, minute-eating clinch control and proven cardio give him multiple paths to bank a decision or late KO that could eclipse 85-plus DK points. With salary relief and ownership leverage rolled into one, Monk will be well overweight on Buday in GPPs and views him as the dog who can break the slate while the industry chases chalkier punts like Guskov.

Monk picked Martin Buday to upset Marcus "Buchecha" Almeida and smash his $7.1K salary. He pushed back on the narrative that Buday is a low-volume plodder, noting the Slovakian heavyweight averages almost five significant strikes per minute, tops five per minute in Round 2, and racks up over a minute of clinch control each frame. Buday also sports 100% takedown defence (4 attempts faced) and is 6-1 in the UFC yet is a +250 underdog for the first time in his Octagon career. Monk questioned Almeida’s ability to absorb strikes, manage cardio, and score enough DK points at $9.1K given his one-dimensional first-round submission style and only six professional MMA bouts. He plans to be overweight on Buday in GPPs, banking on Buday’s volume and clinch grind to break the BJJ ace and deliver a slate-breaking score.

Michael Lurato advised passing on Martin Buday pre-fight but flagged him as a prime live-bet if Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida stalls out on early takedown attempts. Lurato noted that many decorated grapplers—he referenced Mackenzie Dern and Rodolfo Vieira—lack the wrestling to get fights to the mat and often gas when forced to shoot naked. Should Buday begin stuffing or easily shucking off those shots, Lurato expects panic and a cardio dump from Buchecha, turning the gritty Slovak into the superior minute-winner from Round 2 onward. His game plan: watch the first five minutes; if Almeida looks desperate or is breathing heavy after failed entries, jump on Buday’s live line at plus money because a composed, upright Buday can out-strike a one-dimensional grappler down the stretch.

Kunath suggested Martin Buday as a $7,100 cash or single-entry punt. Newcomer Boucher will struggle to put the massive, powerful Buday on his back, and Buday should be able to pick him apart standing. Although Buday rarely breaks 100 DK points, his durability and size create a decent floor (20-30 points even in a loss) while freeing salary for expensive studs. Kunath advised against going heavily overweight in MME but likes the leverage in tighter builds.

THE MMA GURU picked Marcus Buccecha to tap Martin Buday in the opening frame. He stressed Buccecha’s absurd grappling pedigree – multiple-time ADCC and IBJJF world champion and a Hall-of-Famer – and noted that the Brazilian heavyweight has already logged five MMA wins against opponents with winning records in ONE. Guru liked that Buccecha showed real toughness in his lone loss to the steroid-sized wrestler Rug Rug, eating heavy shots yet still threatening on the mat. Buday, by contrast, is a flat-footed pressure plodder who needs to come forward to be effective, a style that exposes his hips to Buccecha’s “nasty double-leg.” Guru expects the first clean level change to put Buday on his back, where he will be “cooked,” predicting an immediate transition to leg entanglement or mount and a tap inside five minutes.