TheWeasle said Brendan Allen should take a decision over Marvin Vettori because Allen owns the technical edge in every phase. He pointed out that Vettori’s only elite skill is his granite chin, while Allen is the cleaner boxer and far more dangerous on the mat with "excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu" and quicker scrambles. Vettori has gone five rounds and can push pace, yet TheWeasle warned his wrestling was badly exposed when Jared Cannonier landed repeated takedowns, and even Jack Hermansson got him down twice. Allen may not be an explosive wrestler, but he willingly chains attempts—shooting over and over like he did versus Chris Curtis and Nassourdine Imavov—until he finds top position. With better positional grappling and slick chokes, Allen can threaten on the floor while out-teching Vettori on the feet, making a judges’ nod the most likely outcome unless Vettori’s chin somehow carries him to an upset.

Andy Lang said the one bet we will kick ourselves for missing is the Over/‘Fight Goes the Distance’ in Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen. Lang reminded listeners that Vettori is an automatic scorecard magnet—nine of his last ten MMA bouts (plus a grappling match) have gone to decision because of his granite chin and low-risk style. He rattled off Vettori’s recent record, stressing the Italian has not been finished since 2014 and rarely finishes anyone himself. While Jim Malaro previously mentioned Allen’s submission upside, Lang countered that Allen’s own gas tank often fades in rounds two and three, making a late tap unlikely. With neither man likely to get knocked out or subbed, Lang expects a typical Vettori slog and views any plus money on the fight to go the full 15 minutes—or alternate Overs—as a ‘woulda, coulda, shoulda’ wager that bettors will regret passing on.

Andy Lang said he is not really "betting on" Brendan Allen so much as he is betting against Marvin Vettori. Lang compared Vettori’s recent movement to a stationary extra in an old Tom Cruise boxing movie, arguing the Italian no longer has the athletic pop that once made his pressure style work. He pointed to Vettori getting walked down by Jared Cannonier and Roman Dolidze, the lingering effects of a major shoulder surgery, and the fighter’s own admission that his downtime was spent partying in Miami. Lang added that Vettori is juggling personal issues outside the cage that could further sap focus. Because Lang believes washed veterans rarely regain quick-twitch explosiveness "unless they jump on the Barcelos vitamin plan," he is eager to fade Vettori wherever plus-money is available on Allen or derivative props like Allen decision/submission.

Jim Malaro projected Brendan Allen to defeat Marvin Vettori, calling decision the most likely outcome but highlighting real submission equity if Vettori’s cardio or emotions crater. Malaro believes Vettori has regressed since a major shoulder surgery that tore his rotator cuff, labrum and bicep; recent tape shows the Italian getting walked down by Jarod Cannonier and Roman Dolidze instead of applying his old forward-pressure, pitter-patter style. Toss in a quick turnaround, devastating personal tragedy, and Vettori’s own admission that his layoff featured "big-booty Latinas" in Miami, and Malaro questions the former title challenger’s focus. Allen, by contrast, owns a far more complete toolkit: serviceable wrestling, elite back-takes, slick jiu-jitsu (six UFC subs) and steadily improving boxing that punished Chris Curtis, Paul Craig and Bruno Silva. Malaro expects Allen to bank the first two rounds with volume and clinch control, then either coast to 29-28s or jump on a rear-naked choke if Vettori fades. Recommended bets: Allen by decision with a sprinkle on submission props at juicy numbers.

Monk was shocked to see Brendan Allen sitting at –205 and the fight –270 to go the distance, calling it "Vettori or bust" on the betting window. He argued Allen is not a relentless chain wrestler and Vettori is no easy mark on the mat, making the Italian’s dog price attractive in both DFS ($7,400) and straight wagers. Because a grinding decision is the likeliest outcome, Monk believes Allen’s $8,800 salary is dead money relative to higher-ceiling favorites, whereas Vettori can pay off with even a modest 70-point decision win that frees salary for 9K studs elsewhere.

Sniper likes Brendan Allen at $8,800, predicting he lands multiple takedowns on Marvin Vettori, whose 69 % TDD was exposed when Jared Cannonier dragged him down four times. Allen owns world-class jiu-jitsu and should control long stretches if he can get the fight horizontal, making him a solid tournament option that fewer players will reach after paying up for the 9K studs. Still, Sniper tempered expectations: high-level three-rounders on PPV cards often underwhelm on DraftKings and the fight is –270 to see the scorecards, so Allen’s ceiling lags behind Ferreira, Dulatov or Gautier. He’ll roster Allen in GPPs, sprinkle a small Vittori hedge, but will not treat the fight as a must-stack.

Danny Brasco tabbed Marvin Vettori as a live underdog (+180) against Brendan Allen. Although Vettori’s porous boxing defense has been criticized, Brasco emphasized the Italian’s granite chin, forward pressure and recently improved offensive boxing. He sees vulnerabilities in Allen’s recent form—close split-decision tendencies, late-fight cardio dips and accumulated damage—that Vettori can exploit by marching forward and forcing heavy exchanges. Brasco also believes an emotional edge exists: Vettori is dedicating the fight to his late brother, potentially unlocking a higher aggression level that could sway tight rounds or even produce a finish.

While leaning toward Brendan Allen, Dan Tom told listeners not to ignore the plus-200 opener on Marvin Vettori if it resurfaces. Tom argued that any number at +200 or longer automatically bakes in Vettori’s elite durability, southpaw awkwardness and potential to bank rounds with clinch control and volume jabs. Although he questions Vettori’s recent tactical choices—fighting off the back foot instead of pressuring and wrestling—Tom noted the Italian has never been finished, owns a granite chin, and could make the fight ugly enough to sway two of the three judges. He framed the wager strictly as a ‘small stab for value hunters,’ recommending bankroll management but acknowledging that two-to-one or better is a historically profitable threshold for a fighter who almost always hears the scorecards and keeps exchanges close.

Madlab Michael Lurato said Brendan Allen is the side at roughly –210, arguing the 28-year-old is improving while Marvin Vettori has stalled. Lurato pointed out Allen’s legitimate Carlson Gracie lineage black belt under Daniel Wanderley, greater finishing upside on both the feet and the mat, and noticeably better conditioning after this camp with Belal Muhammad’s team— Allen’s mid-section ‘love’ is gone. By contrast, Vettori continues to camp-hop, now at ATT, and has drifted into an ineffective back-foot style that neuters his volume wrestling game. Lurato highlighted Vettori’s lack of knockout power (zero knockdowns in his last seven bouts) and reliance on optics, whereas Allen consistently scores the bigger moments— hard counters in the pocket and aggressive submission chains. He acknowledged Allen’s historical cardio dips but trusts the younger fighter’s evolution to hold up for 15 minutes. With multiple finishing paths and superior momentum, Lurato believes Allen cashes the moneyline and even offers sprinkle potential on late-sub props.

Dan Tom said his favorite angle for the middle-weight co-main is the Over 2.5 Rounds prop, currently sitting around –285 and still parlay-able at –155 when paired with other spots. Tom noted Allen owns an 8-2 record against southpaws, yet half of those wins were grappling-heavy affairs, making the strike-to-strike handicap murky. Instead of forcing a side, he expects a lot of clinch jockeying, level-change feints and pawing jabs that bleed clock because neither man likes the other and both respect the other’s durability. Vettori has never been stopped in 12 UFC fights, while Allen—despite having more finishing tools— has only been finished once since 2018 and is coming in visibly leaner after a camp with Belal Muhammad. Tom referenced the classic ‘bad-blood stare-down’ trend (Rampage–Rashad, Usman–Masvidal I) where personal animus often produces a slower, safer fight. He staked 2.64 units to win 1.70 on the over and rolled it into a small parlay with Kevin Holland, projecting at least 13 minutes of cage time roughly 70% of the time.

Kunath advised taking plus money on Marvin Vettori in what he calls a coin-flip middleweight bout. He pointed out that Brendan Allen’s win condition is almost always top-position grappling—eight of his last nine victories came when he logged two or more takedowns or secured back control—but Vettori owns an 80 % takedown-defense rate and has never been submitted or finished in 15 UFC appearances. On the feet Vettori averages 4.38 significant strikes landed per minute to Allen’s 3.71 and has a better chin, having never been knocked down; Allen has been knocked out by both Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland. Kunath conceded Vettori’s power is “pillow-fisted” yet expects him to stuff enough shots, march forward, and touch Allen with southpaw jabs and left hooks. Because Vettori tends to win close rounds while judges reward Allen’s back-takes, Kunath forecasted a razor-thin fight that likely goes to a split decision, siding with Vettori’s durability and defensive wrestling for the upset.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed the +185 underdog tag on Marvin Vettori, arguing that the Italian’s grinding wrestling and pressure boxing are kryptonite for Brendan Allen. Vreeland noted Allen surrendered seven takedowns to Jacob Malkoun and was out-struck in both meetings with Chris Curtis, underscoring weaknesses that Vettori can replicate with his 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes and 59% accuracy. While Allen boasts superior pure jiu-jitsu, Vreeland emphasized he is not the better wrestler; Vettori has stuffed 75% of opponent shots and has never been submitted. He also reminded listeners that Vettori’s only recent losses are to elite contenders—Adesanya, Whittaker, Cannonier—whereas Allen arguably lost a split to Curtis. With better control positions and a cardio edge that historically carries him through hard 15-minute battles, Vreeland believes Vettori wins minutes and cashes as a live dog.

Jeff Fox laid –198 with Brendan Allen, contending the former LFA champ remains a more potent striker and submission threat than Marvin Vettori despite Allen’s recent skid. Allen owns 19 finishes in 24 wins and still averages 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes, while Vettori’s offense has devolved into low-impact volume. Fox sees Allen’s edge in danger creation—5 knockouts, 14 submissions—overcoming Vettori’s famed durability, pointing to the Italian’s 1-4 record since March 2023. He also flagged Allen’s two-inch height and one-inch reach advantage, plus his willingness to mix in takedowns (1.26 per 15) against a fighter who rarely threatens submissions. In a division where finishing upside swings close fights, Fox trusts Allen to out-damage Vettori and cash as a moderate favorite.

MMA Guru predicted Brendan Allen will out-work Marvin Vettori for a 29-28 decision despite acknowledging Allen’s questionable fight IQ. He argued Allen’s wider arsenal—low kicks, body kicks, head kicks, and opportunistic takedowns—will create far more scoring variety than Vettori’s steady diet of one-twos. Guru also noted Vettori’s recent layoff and uninspiring return loss to Roman Dolidze, plus emotional distractions stemming from a family tragedy, as red flags for the Italian. While Vittori’s granite chin makes a finish unlikely, Guru sees Allen mixing clinch knees, brief mat returns, and diverse striking to land the more eye-catching blows each round. He projected both men around 90 significant strikes but emphasized that judges will favor Allen’s visible damage over Vittori’s jab-cross volume. The advised play is Allen by decision or simply plus-money on the moneyline.

Bedtime MMA backed Brendan Allen to beat Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision. He said Vettori looked "like ****" versus Roman Dolidze, getting cleanly out-boxed, and if you are out-struck by Dolidze you are "not a lasting contender." Allen, in contrast, rides an 8-1 run, has underrated hands, solid power, a reliable grappling safety net and has been far more active than the Italian. The tout also pointed to Allen’s hometown advantage in New Orleans and Vettori’s trademark tendency to emote and think he was "robbed" when volume numbers clearly favor his opponent. Expect Allen to keep it standing, mix straight combinations with calf kicks, stuff desperation shots and bank at least two of the three rounds for a 30-27/29-28 type scorecard. With Allen around a slight favorite (-130 range), he recommends the moneyline and the Allen-by-decision prop at plus money.