Kunath likes Chris ‘Action Man’ Curtis returning to 170 lbs where he isn't dwarfed physically. Despite a tough cut, Curtis owns KOs over Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen at middleweight and carries elite takedown defense plus sharp pocket boxing. Max Griffin is actually older and, in Kunath’s view, offers little outside a close kickboxing match. Expect Curtis to stuff shots, control the pocket, and coast to a decision.

Dan Tom explained that he passed on laying the –320 money-line with Chris Curtis because the veteran’s maddening tendency to drift through rounds invites judging chaos. Nashville cards already lean split-decision heavy, and Tom said, “nobody attracts more fuckery than Chris Curtis.” Instead, he parlayed the Over 2.5 rounds in this fight with another Over to get a near-even payout. Tom noted that eight of Curtis’ last ten bouts have touched Round 3 and Max Griffin has gone the distance in six straight, with neither man finished in years. Both own 90-plus percent takedown-defense rates, so he expects a measured boxing match that easily clears 12.5 minutes. In a judging environment he doesn’t trust, Tom believes eating juice on the Over is far smarter than relying on Curtis to convince three cage-side scorers.

Dan Tom argued that the –320 money-line on Chris Curtis is actually justified despite looking steep. Griffin is just 1-2 against UFC-level southpaws— and Tim Means arguably beat him, which would make that 0-3. Curtis returns to his natural welterweight class, bringing a 93 % takedown-defense rate and the pocket boxing that carved up names like Kelvin Gastelum. Tom noted Griffin’s habit of circling the warning track under pressure will look awful to judges in a fight likely to go long, especially because Curtis’ granite chin lets him walk opponents down without fear. With both fighters historically durable, Tom leans to the Over 2.5 as well, but he believes the safest anchor for parlays is simply Curtis straight, citing Griffin’s poor left-hand reads and Curtis’ body-work counters that rarely get credit on the cards yet still bank rounds. In Tom’s words, “given MMA pricing conventions, minus three-something is actually the right number here.”

MMA Guru backed Chris Curtis to finish Max Griffin in the second or third round. He noted Griffin barely scraped by Tim Means via split decision two years ago and has only gotten older, while Curtis owns a dozen more pro fights and has competed—and succeeded—against far stronger opposition at middleweight. Guru credited Curtis for out-landing Roman Kopylov until a last-second knockdown and for nearly edging Brendan Allen despite a late leg injury, evidence he is still operating at a high level. Griffin, by comparison, struggles to wrestle elite opponents and offers a predictable striking attack. Guru expects Curtis’ stout takedown defense and composed boxing to keep the fight standing, where Curtis’ trademark body work should wilt the “all-torso” Griffin. Recommended wagers: Curtis inside-the-distance or round-2/3 TKO props.

Gumby Vreeland countered with a bullish take on Chris Curtis, arguing the veteran’s first true run at his natural 170-lb class unlocks hidden upside. At middleweight Curtis was routinely outsized and out-wrestled by hulks like Brendan Allen; now his one-shot power and 91 % takedown defense should translate. Vreeland expects Curtis’s technical boxing to keep the fight at range and prevent Max Griffin from forcing the ugly clinch exchanges he thrives in. Griffin’s marginal +0.09 strike differential and 33 % offensive takedown rate do not worry Vreeland when Curtis will finally enjoy size parity. Seeing the line balloon past –300, he suggested parlaying Curtis ML or targeting KO props, predicting the welterweight version of the Action Man can either pot-shot to a decision or melt Griffin late once “Payne” gets reckless.

Jeff Fox called Max “Pain” Griffin a live +250 underdog against Chris Curtis. Stat sheets show Griffin owns better pure power (9 KOs to Curtis’s 17 but against lighter opposition), has been finished only twice in 31 bouts, and actually posts superior grappling numbers to the Action Man. Fox pointed out that Curtis is 1-3 with one No Contest over his last five and carries a ‑0.27 strike differential, hinting at erosion after years of wars at 185. Griffin, meanwhile, has alternated wins and losses but remains durable and can mix in takedowns at a 50 % success clip. Fox believes the fight is far closer than the betting line suggests and is taking Griffin money-line while sprinkling decision props, expecting the grappling edge and comparable boxing to flip at least two rounds.

Bedtime MMA predicted Chris Curtis wins a 29-28 unanimous decision over Max Griffin in Curtis’s welterweight return. He sees a clear speed and technical boxing edge for Curtis, describing Griffin as "a bit slower and a little bit more stiff"—someone even Michael Chiesa could tag. Curtis’s hallmark defense, front-kicks to the body, and jab-left-hook combos should shine against a foe who stands in front of him rather than circling or wrestling consistently. Bedtime gave Griffin respect for his KO of Song Kanan and competitive fight with Michael Morales but believes equal power paired with better hand speed and craft means Curtis steadily out-lands Griffin, with the possibility of a late counter-left-hook finish if Griffin proves shop-worn.