TheWeasle picked Dustin Poirier to score a fourth-round TKO in their trilogy, laying out several edges that tilt the matchup back toward the Lafayette southpaw. He argued Poirier’s boxing remains among the sharpest in MMA—slick shift combinations, a piston left straight, and a right hook he can land from range—while Max Holloway has started sitting on his punches and hanging in the pocket far longer than in their 2019 meeting. That style change, plus years of additional mileage (three wars with Volkanovski, the Cater and Rodriguez firefights, the recent knockout loss to Ilia Topuria), makes Holloway’s legendary chin a growing question mark. Poirier no longer enjoys a massive power advantage now that Holloway has bulked up for 155, but the New Orleans native still hits harder and forced eight takedown attempts in the rematch, adding another offensive wrinkle Holloway must respect. With Holloway switching stances, Poirier can keep him honest with the jab and high-elbow guard, then punish the body once Max tries to jab his way inside from orthodox. TheWeasle expects Holloway’s increased stand-and-trade approach to give Poirier more clean pocket looks than ever, eventually overwhelming a diminished chin and producing the retirement-fight finish in round four. He views the bout as a near pick-em, making Poirier a playable money-line side at current odds.

Brad PickDawgz took Dustin Poirier at plus money in what Poirier says will be his retirement bout. Brad referenced Poirier’s previous victories over Holloway (including the lightweight interim title fight) and noted that fighters often ‘finish out pretty damn strong’ in farewell appearances. The expectation of a close, competitive fight combined with the emotional edge of Poirier’s final walk swayed Brad to the underdog side.

Tim Welch said he is siding with Max Holloway to defeat Dustin Poirier at UFC 318. Welch acknowledged that Poirier has already beaten Holloway twice, noting that “beating someone three times in a row is f***ing hard,” but laid out several reasons he expects a different result this time. First, the bout is at lightweight, which Welch believes will help Holloway’s durability: “His chin and body are gonna hold up way better at 155.” He contrasted this matchup with Holloway’s last fight, where Ilia Topuria’s featherweight power caught him clean. Welch also pointed out that this is Holloway’s first fight back after being knocked out, yet he still leans Holloway because Poirier won’t have a size advantage and Holloway’s legendary volume striking should add up over five rounds. Although he had not checked the betting line yet, Welch made it clear he would pick Holloway straight up to win, implying value if the odds are even or Holloway is an underdog.

Matt Perrault is betting Dustin Poirier at +120 to win the UFC 318 BMF-belt main event. He pointed to Poirier fighting at home in New Orleans in what is expected to be his retirement bout, believing that crowd energy and storyline could sway judges if the fight reaches the scorecards (Circa has the bout –155 to go the distance). Perrault also highlighted Poirier’s two-inch reach advantage, heavier hands, and the fact Max Holloway is returning to 155 after being knocked out for the first time by Ilia Topuria, raising concerns about Holloway’s chin as fighters age. While acknowledging most betting media are on Holloway, Perrault sees multiple paths for Poirier—knockout, submission, or decision—and prefers the straight money-line play at plus money for one unit.

Jon Anik said bettors should give real consideration to Dustin Poirier at even money in the UFC 318 main event. Anik believes the Smoothie King Center crowd will be a net positive for Poirier, stressing that the Louisiana native "eats pressure for breakfast" and historically channels big-fight energy instead of wilting. He pointed out that Poirier will enter first in the blue corner, meaning he can soak up the atmosphere while Max Holloway walks last, a dynamic Anik thinks will further energize the hometown favorite. Citing conversations with "sharp handicappers," Anik noted that many are already leaning toward Poirier in what has become a near pick-em matchup. With both men capable of ending the fight on one shot but the intangibles—home crowd, retirement stakes, and Poirier’s proven ability to compartmentalize emotion—swinging in Poirier’s favor, Anik framed the even-money price as attractive betting value.

Jim Malaro labeled Dustin Poirier the night’s No. 1 "parlay buster." He believes every casual bettor will anchor tickets to the Lafayette legend, assuming the Louisiana hometown crowd and BMF stakes guarantee a storybook send-off. Malaro countered that Max Holloway owns the advantages in age (four years younger), volume (well over 7.5 significant strikes landed per minute to Poirier’s 5.6) and durability—Holloway went three rounds with Topuria and has never been stopped by strikes at 145 or 155. Poirier has shown slipping speed, needed a head-kick bailout versus a worn-down Saint Denis, and openly admits this is likely his final bout. Malaro warned that betting markets inflate sentimental angles, turning Poirier into overpriced chalk and making him the perfect leg to sink multi-fight parlays.

Monk doubled-down on stacking the five-round Poirier-Holloway trilogy, saying he will "lock-button" the fight into literally every DraftKings lineup—cash games and GPPs alike. At a perfectly balanced $8,000/$8,200 salary split, Monk cannot envision a scenario where one of them fails to post a monster fantasy total. He expects a combined 180-plus significant strikes, with Poirier mixing in a few takedowns and longer, more damaging shots while Holloway piles on volume. Monk noted that even a losing score in the mid-80s could make the optimal if several 9K favorites dud. The matchup’s five-round floor, proven durability on both sides, and mid-tier pricing make it an auto-include core that frees salary for pay-ups without sacrificing ceiling.

Sniper hammered Dustin Poirier at +120 as both a betting and DFS priority in the five-round trilogy with Max Holloway. He expects the line to flip by Friday and urged listeners to grab the dog price now. Poirier has beaten Holloway twice—once by armbar, once via clear striking impact—and enters at his natural 155-pound weight while Holloway is moving up. Sniper noted Poirier’s heavier hands (1.46 knockdowns per 15 minutes at lightweight) and potential wrestling edge, predicting a few well-timed takedowns or clinch exchanges could sway judges in what should be a high-volume war. With salaries set at $8,000 (Poirier) and $8,200 (Holloway), Sniper called the fight a "lock-button stack" for cash games and expects to include it in roughly 85 % of his GPP builds, banking on 250-plus combined significant strikes over 25 minutes. He will lean 55/45 toward Poirier in tournament exposure, but insists having both sides is critical because the mid-range pricing and guaranteed scoring make this bout a near-certain appearance on the optimal lineup.

Danny Brasco is taking Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier at +120 to defeat Max Holloway in their UFC 318 main-event trilogy bout. Poirier already owns a 2-0 series lead, including a 49-46 decision in 2019 where his southpaw boxing and power constantly forced Holloway to reset. Brasco expects the same stylistic dynamic: Holloway must move forward to weaponize his cardio-heavy volume, but Poirier’s slick counters—check right hook, straight left—carry enough pop to halt those flurries and create visible damage for judges. Poirier’s declaration that he wants to retire "before the sport retires me" signals full motivation and a healthy camp. Brasco believes a legacy-sealing victory in his hometown of New Orleans is incoming.

Madlab Michael Lurato advised taking the Fight Goes To Decision prop for the BMF main event. He reiterated that Dustin Poirier will have trouble crashing the pocket against Holloway’s "extremely surgical" footwork and combination striking, forcing Poirier to fight much more cautiously than he did in wild exchanges with Justin Gaethje. Lurato argued both men remain exceptionally durable – Holloway has never been stopped by strikes and Poirier has absorbed heavier damage yet still owns an iron chin – so a finish would likely come only if one fighter obliges a late-fight phone-booth brawl. With totals already juiced to the over 4.5 rounds (-170) and the moneyline essentially a pick’em, Lurato sees superior value on the plus-money decision market, projecting a high-volume, but controlled, 25-minute affair that lands on the cards roughly 70-75% of the time.

Madlab Michael Lurato floated a "circus bet" for gamblers chasing upside: Dustin Poirier by submission at +1200. Lurato reminded listeners that Poirier has always wanted to "jump the gillie" and might attempt a guillotine in front of his home crowd, especially if this could be his final walk. Although Lurato’s official pick remains Holloway by decision and he believes the fight stays standing for most of the 25 minutes, he said he "wouldn’t be shocked" if Poirier dives on a guillotine just for the thrill. Given Poirier’s lifelong fascination with that move and the juicy 12-to-1 price, Lurato suggested a small, degenerate stab on the submission prop while accepting Holloway is notoriously hard to finish.

Dan Tom said he is backing Max Holloway even though Poirier is 2-0 against him and will have the New Orleans crowd behind him. Tom argued Holloway is the fresher, faster and more improved fighter at this point in their careers. He pointed to Holloway’s sharper footwork, newly developed power, ability to kick effectively while retreating, and the Southpaw looks he flashed while out-dueling Arnold Allen. Tom added that Holloway still makes in-fight defensive reads, citing sequences where he adjusted to Arnold Allen and Justin Gaethje combinations on the very next exchange. While acknowledging Holloway’s 1-3 mark versus UFC southpaws and 1-2 record in rematches, Tom said those losses were context-heavy (early-career McGregor, short-camp 2019 Poirier). He praised Team Holloway’s consistent game-planning, framed Poirier’s best path as countering early to “take away the builder’s materials,” and concluded Holloway owns more tactical outs over 25 minutes. At an essentially pick’em price, Tom recommended betting Holloway, leaning toward a decision in what he expects to be a high-level, chess-match striking affair.

Madlab Michael Lurato said he ultimately sides with Max Holloway at the current -130 price for the UFC 318 BMF main event. Lurato acknowledged that he normally refuses to bet against either fighter, but argued Holloway is the more reliable investment at this stage. He pointed out that their two previous meetings (2012 and 2019) are too dated to be meaningful, noting both men are very different fighters now. Holloway is still only 32, continues to post trademark off-the-charts output, and repeatedly produces "another master-class" whenever critics suggest mileage might be catching up. Lurato believes Poirier has absorbed the heavier damage toll during his recent lightweight wars, whereas Holloway’s high-volume point-fighting style should profit across five rounds. With the totals market sitting at 4.5 rounds (over -170/under +140), Lurato expects the bout to see deep waters, a scenario that historically favors Holloway’s cardio and pace on the scorecards. Given the essentially pick’em moneyline and Holloway’s perceived edge in volume and durability, Lurato advised taking the slight favorite before any late steam pushes the number wider.

Kunath said Dustin Poirier should complete a 3-0 sweep over Max Holloway and cash as a slight underdog. He argued Poirier can match Holloway’s trademark pace over five rounds, citing their nearly identical significant-strike numbers in the 2019 fight. Poirier’s heavier shots and punishing calf-kicks—aimed at Holloway’s historically vulnerable lead leg—should create the bigger moments on the judges’ cards. Kunath also questioned Holloway’s granite-chin narrative after the Topuria knockout and the all-time record for strikes absorbed. Poirier, meanwhile, has stayed durable, rolls with punches, and thrives in high-volume wars. In front of a Louisiana crowd, Kunath expects Poirier to land the cleaner, harder offense and win a decision.

Welch leaned toward Max Holloway in Poirier’s retirement fight. He noted Holloway is only 33, historically sturdier at lightweight, and training with southpaw boxer Keoni Diggs to mirror Poirier’s stance. Although Holloway was just KO’d by Ilia Topuria at 145, Welch believes the extra 10 lbs helps his chin and output. Poirier, 36, has traded wins and losses in his last four and may be more focused on a farewell performance. Welch sees Holloway’s cardio and volume carrying him to victory.

Tim Welch said to hit the PrizePicks "more than 112 significant strikes" line on Dustin Poirier for UFC 318. He re-watched the pair’s 2019 rematch and was reminded how both men happily ate leather for five rounds, noting they "beat the tar out of each other." Welch expects a similar back-and-forth boxing match in Poirier’s retirement bout, which should push Poirier’s volume north of the posted 112 mark even if he ultimately loses. The prop only counts Poirier’s strikes, so a competitive fight—with Holloway traditionally allowing high output—gives ample cushion for the over.

MMA Guru forecasted a near-shutout for Max Holloway, saying the Hawaiian is poised to win 50-45 (possibly 49-46) over a fading Dustin Poirier. Guru argued Poirier’s striking has slipped since his peak Dan Hooker/McGregor run, pointing to a round-two head-kick KO loss to Justin Gaethje, a surprisingly competitive bout with Benoit Saint Denis, and early stings from Islam Makhachev. He believes Poirier’s recent camps over-emphasized wrestling defense, dulling the slick pocket work that once defined him. Meanwhile Holloway just embarrassed Gaethje on the feet, proving his trademark volume and accuracy still translate at 155. Guru added that moving up after the Topuria knockout should help Holloway’s chin by eliminating the brutal featherweight cut. Mental edges also tilt to Holloway: Guru is convinced Poirier will retire in front of the Louisiana crowd, dampening his willingness to dig deep, whereas Holloway is chasing another title shot and talking future matchups with Ilya Topuria and Charles Oliveira. With Poirier unlikely to wrestle, Guru expects a pure stand-up battle where Holloway throws north of 200 significant strikes, stays one step ahead defensively, and sweeps most rounds. Betting angles he endorsed include Holloway moneyline, Holloway by decision, and wider-margin props such as Holloway by unanimous decision or Holloway ‑3.5 rounds.

MMA Guru picked Max Holloway to win the trilogy with Dustin Poirier by decision. He is ‘sure’ Poirier will announce his retirement in front of the Louisiana crowd, expecting that to dull Poirier’s killer instinct and willingness to pour on a finish. Guru also said elite veterans often show each other extra respect, leading to fights that go the distance. Because Holloway is not retiring and historically maintains high volume for five rounds, Guru foresees Holloway out-landing Poirier in extended exchanges while surviving any early scare. The recommendation is Holloway moneyline, Holloway by decision, and the fight-goes-the-distance market.

Bedtime MMA said the UFC 318 main event between Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway is almost certainly going the distance. He called both men “two of the most durable guys in the sport,” noted their previous 25-minute wars, and pointed out that neither has been finished in years despite fighting elite knockout artists. Because of that chin history and the mutual respect that usually keeps their early rounds more technical than reckless, he expects all five rounds to be needed to settle it. Bettors looking at the fight-does-not-go-to-decision prop or DFS players chasing early finish bonuses should temper expectations.

Michael Bisping warned that Max Holloway’s chin may be compromised after being knocked out by Ilia Topuria, noting some fighters are never the same once they suffer a devastating KO. In what he expects to be a largely stand-up battle with Dustin Poirier, Bisping said bettors should seriously weigh Holloway’s potential post-knockout vulnerability before backing the Hawaiian. He contrasted the possibility of diminished durability with Holloway’s trademark volume and fire, but concluded that uncertainty around how Holloway absorbs shots now is a key risk variable for money-line and prop markets such as Poirier by KO/TKO.

Michael Bisping reminded listeners that seven of Dustin Poirier's last 11 opponents were former world champions, arguing this murderer’s-row schedule has hardened Poirier for another five-round firefight at UFC 318. Bisping said that depth of experience against elite talent gives Poirier a composure edge in high-leverage moments and makes him more trustworthy for money-line or live-bet positions than raw metrics might suggest. While Bisping was non-committal on an outright pick, he urged bettors to factor Poirier’s championship-level strength of schedule into their wagering calculus when pricing the bout.

Michael Bisping questioned Dustin Poirier’s chances of winning the trilogy fight, noting that the physical edges Poirier once held over Max Holloway—size, strength and experience—have flipped into liabilities. Poirier is now 36 with 39 pro bouts and recent damage from losses to Islam Makhachev (sub), Justin Gaethje (head-kick KO) and Charles Oliveira (sub), which Bisping believes add "miles on the clock" and potential cracks in Poirier’s armor. He contrasted that with Holloway being three years younger, equally experienced inside the Octagon (22 UFC fights) and highly motivated to avoid going 0-3 in a second trilogy. Bisping implied bettors should be wary of backing Poirier at favorite odds given age-related decline, cumulative wear and tear, and questionable hunger after lucrative McGregor paydays.

Bedtime MMA laid out a round-by-round script that sets up an in-fight wagering angle. He expects Dustin Poirier’s best minutes to come in Rounds 1-2, powered by sharp boxing combinations and his trademark calf-kicks, but insists those kicks will not cripple Holloway because the Hawaiian has already absorbed Volkanovski, Aldo and Gaethje leg attacks without folding. Holloway, meanwhile, will answer every Poirier flurry with multi-strike counters and—crucially— knees, elbows and spinning back-kicks to the body. Citing Poirier’s noticeable cardio dip when Charles Oliveira repeatedly kneed him to the mid-section, Bedtime MMA predicts a similar slowdown starting late in Round 2. Once Poirier’s pace drops, Holloway’s superior volume, footwork and gas tank should snowball. Because of that momentum swing, Bedtime MMA advised waiting until the live line re-opens after Round 2 to take Holloway moneyline, or targeting Holloway Round 3, Round 4, Round 5, and Round 3-Decision props that will carry juicier odds than pre-fight numbers. He framed it as “the safest way to extract value” rather than laying the full-fight price upfront.

Bedtime MMA said bettors should back Max Holloway to win by unanimous decision (projected 49-46) with a live chance for a late 4th- or 5th-round TKO. His confidence is rooted in several factors: • Holloway’s striking has reached another level – elite Muay Thai combos, added power, and far sharper defense than in their 2019 meeting. • Underrated grappling: strong guillotine, improved takedown defense, and historically hard to hold down (Volkanovski and Topuria failed to keep him grounded). • Recent form edge: Holloway dominated Justin Gaethje and was competitive against Ilia Topuria, while Poirier was “schooled” by Gaethje and looked slower, stiffer, and banged-up versus Islam Makhachev (broken nose, torn knee, cracked ribs). • Decline indicators for Poirier: reduced mobility, shot hips/knees, and susceptibility to head-kick/overhand counters after absorbing heavy damage in recent fights. • Expected fight flow: Poirier dangerous in R1-R2 with power and calf-kicks, but Holloway’s stance-switching, volume, body-knees, spinning back-kicks, and relentless pace should swamp him from R3 on, potentially re-breaking Poirier’s nose and draining his cardio. Because Holloway’s chin remains “goaded” and Poirier’s early KO threat fades, Bedtime MMA prefers betting Holloway by decision at plus money, with a small hedge on Holloway R4/R5 TKO if you want a bigger payday.

Bedtime MMA tipped Max Holloway to stop Dustin Poirier late, specifically calling for a body-shot TKO. He said Poirier’s chin looks "shoddy" after consecutive wars with Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria, plus the knee tear, broken nose and knock-downs he absorbed against Islam Makhachev. Holloway, meanwhile, has properly filled out at 155 and now owns the speed edge, stronger frame and noticeably more pop on knees, elbows and spinning kicks. The host highlighted several sequences from their 2019 rematch where Holloway pinned Poirier and landed flurries, arguing those openings will be easier to exploit with a full lightweight camp. He noted Poirier has been finished in most of his losses, so the trend, combined with Poirier’s slowing footwork and lingering injuries, makes a late Holloway finish (+450 range) more attractive than the decision prop. He is comfortable betting Holloway moneyline now and sprinkling the Round 4-5 or ‘Holloway by KO/TKO’ markets for extra upside.

Bedtime MMA said he is backing Max Holloway to defeat Dustin Poirier in July’s BMF title head-liner at UFC 318. He argued Holloway now enjoys a clear speed advantage at 155 and, unlike their 2019 meeting, has bulked up properly for the weight class instead of taking a short-notice jump. The host highlighted multiple sequences from the rematch where Holloway pinned Poirier against the fence and landed extended combinations, suggesting the volume striker can replicate that success with a full lightweight frame. He also questioned Poirier’s durability after recent firefights with Justin Gaethje and the damage absorbed against Ilia Topuria, believing Holloway’s cardio and chin hold up better over five rounds. Put together, he views Holloway as the sharper, fresher side and an early betting target.