Joe Osborne backed Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision at -163 and told listeners he would bet it down to -199. Osborne pointed to the first meeting less than a year ago when Dvalishvili landed six takedowns, banked more than 10 minutes of control time and out-struck Sean O'Malley by 45 significant strikes. Dvalishvili has gone to the judges in 10 of his last 11 victories, so Osborne expects the same smothering wrestling and cardio-driven game plan to cash another decision ticket at UFC 316.

Michael Bisping said bettors should back Merab Dvalishvili to retain his bantamweight title in the UFC 316 main-event rematch with Sean O'Malley. Bisping highlighted Dvalishvili's suffocating pace and chain-wrestling—he fired double-digit takedown attempts per round in their first meeting at UFC 306—and a bottomless gas tank that still had him shooting in the fifth. Since then the champ out-grappled previously unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov, flashing faster hands and growing confidence. Bisping added that Merab’s stocky frame and thick neck let him absorb the long-range strikes O'Malley depends on. O'Malley has cleaned up his lifestyle, fixed a torn labrum, and promises better cardio, but Bisping sees the same stylistic nightmare: Dvalishvili walking him down, pinning him to the fence, and grinding out another decision. He called Merab a solid straight bet or parlay anchor on DraftKings.

Bedtime MMA sided with Merab Dvalishvili to win a 48-47 decision over Sean O'Malley at UFC 316. He forecasted that O'Malley would rock or drop Merab once—likely with a clean right hand or body shot in Round 2—but stressed that Merab’s relentless, chaotic style wins minutes even when takedowns fail. The tout projected O'Malley to stuff roughly 70 percent of attempts yet still get pinned against the fence where Merab will fire short punches and rack up optics. Dvalishvili’s trademark pace and cardio should let him steal Rounds 1, 3 and 5, while sporadic level-change feints add enough striking success to sway judges. Because O'Malley tends to fight cautiously once fatigue sets in, Bedtime MMA doubts he has late knockout power and sees submission as his only finishing path. Recommended wager: Dvalishvili by decision, banking on volume, clinch control and “emoting” to neutralize the champion’s slick striking.

Kyzer Del Busto recommended backing Dvalishvili at –275, calling this a "rinse-and-repeat" of November’s one-sided wrestle-fest. He pointed to Merab’s 3-inch reach disadvantage being irrelevant because the Georgian closes distance instantly and chains shots until he’s on a leg. O’Malley’s lone hope, per Kyzer, is that the torn-hip-labrum surgery magically fixed his 63% takedown-defense problem, yet the challenger refused any interim fight to prove it. Meanwhile Merab has out-landed foes by 1.85 strikes per minute while logging 66 takedowns in 14 UFC bouts. Unless the surgery turned Sugar into Jose Aldo overnight, Kyzer sees another five-round grind and advises parlaying the champ with other chalk.

Gumby said to lay the –275 on Merab Dvalishvili because nothing in Sean O’Malley’s layoff-filled camp suggests he fixed the fatal flaw from the first meeting. O’Malley went straight from hip-labrum surgery into an immediate rematch without a tune-up bout to test his wrestling, and Gumby doubts a few months of drilling can erase the 11 takedowns and 12:41 of top control Merab logged last time. Dvalishvili is on a 12-fight UFC win streak, averages 6.55 takedowns per 15 minutes, owns a World Sambo silver medal, and has never been finished. Gumby projected "10–15 takedowns and another lopsided decision," adding that he will be smashing any Underdog Fantasy or book prop that posts an "over" on Merab’s takedowns.

Kunath said Sean O'Malley is the bet in the UFC 316 main event, calling for a decision victory to reclaim the title. He noted that O'Malley still took the fifth round in the first meeting despite coming in "very flat" and dealing with a hip injury, which the fighter later disclosed. Over the nine-month layoff, Kunath expects O'Malley to have drilled defensive wrestling—lower stance, more body kicks, smarter right hands—to limit Merab Dvalishvili’s trademark chain-takedown attempts. He emphasized that Dvalishvili owns an 8 % UFC finish rate and offers minimal submission threat, allowing O'Malley to safely give his back while returning to his feet. Kunath believes the superior striker can touch, move, and out-point the cardio machine for five rounds, leveraging improved get-ups, matured focus (no “peace pipe” distractions), and the confidence gained from already seeing Marab’s pace. Betting angle: play O’Malley by decision or money-line plus decision prop because a KO is unlikely against Marab’s durability.

Tim Welch emphasized that Sean O'Malley’s conditioning is peaking ahead of the expected clash with cardio-machine Marab Dvalishvili. Welch put O'Malley through a 27-minute grinder that averaged 184 bpm—peaking at 195—essentially a sustained VO2-max effort. Welch noted most high-level pros can’t hold that heart-rate zone for more than a few minutes, framing it as proof O'Malley can match or surpass Marab’s trademark pace. Because O'Malley is handling that intensity in camp, Welch expects Sugar to stay dangerous into the championship rounds, making him a live betting target for late-fight props (round 4/5 finish or decision) and an attractive side on the moneyline if early odds shade toward Marab’s wrestling.