Matt LaMarca advised fading Patrick Corbin’s strikeout prop, backing the under 4.5 on PrizePicks. The FantasyLabs model projects Corbin to stay below the number 59.4% of the time with a 5.0% expected value edge. With the projection engine seeing limited strikeout upside, LaMarca labeled the under a reasonable way to play Corbin’s expected struggles on Monday’s slate.

JD Bets said he is taking Mark Vientos over 1.5 hitter fantasy bases (he kept calling it HR but clarified he meant the standard 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI prop that the books post). His reasoning was simple but data driven: • The rest of the Mets board is overpriced – Francisco Lindor is sitting at 2.5, and JD noted that line is 'too much, no, no, no.' • Vientos is one of the few Mets bats actually trending up – when he pulled Vientos’ rolling chart in Outlier the last ten-game line read .314 AVG / .400 OBP with a 47% hard-hit rate. • Trevor Williams’ underlying numbers do not scare him – the Washington right-hander owns a 4.23 xFIP and has allowed a .273 ISO to right-handed power bats since the All-Star break. • Weather is neutral (five-mph breeze, no rain) and Citi Field plays slightly better to right-center where Vientos’ batted-ball spray is clustered. Because the rest of the Mets props are mis-priced and Vientos is barreling everything right now, JD locked in the over 1.5 line for the young slugger.

Guy Boston said Jesse Winker is worth a half-unit over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at +110 because of a lopsided pitcher–batter history and a dream platoon split. Winker owns a 6-for-10 lifetime line (.750 AVG, .800 OBP) off Trevor Williams, and Williams has been crushed by lefties in 2025 (7.50 ERA, .433 AVG allowed, 2.2 HR/9, .469 wOBA). Although Winker is hitting only .200 with a 79 WRC+ on the year and has cleared this line in just 26 % of games, Boston expects the matchup to outweigh the cold surface stats. He framed it as a plus-money dart with clear situational edges rather than a full-unit core play.

Brad Francis advised betting Patrick Corbin under 4.5 strikeouts. Corbin has stayed below this number in four of his last five outings despite an uptick in slider usage. Francis believes the veteran’s inevitable blow-up start is imminent because his swinging-strike rate sits at a career-low 8.2% and hard-contact is creeping over 40%. Against a patient Rangers lineup that ranks top-5 in pitches per plate appearance, Francis is happy to fade Corbin’s K prop.

Jay Croucher’s third edge from the NBC Sports Bet model is on the game total, recommending over 9.0 runs. He cited divisional trend data that shows the OVER is 6-2-1 in Nationals NL East matchups this season, and pointed to the shaky middle-relief units both clubs showed in Sunday’s 8-7 slugfest. While Griffin Canning (3.12 ERA) vs Trevor Williams (5.11 ERA) appears lopsided, Croucher reminded bettors that Canning has allowed seven hits in back-to-back outings and rarely works past the sixth inning, exposing a Mets bullpen that just surrendered seven late runs. On the Nationals side, Williams has given up a .276 opponents’ average and owns just an 18% strikeout rate, leaving plenty of ball-in-play risk against a Mets lineup ranked top-10 in OPS. The model projects 9.6 runs—enough to clear the posted number with room to spare.

Kingpin said the safest way to open Monday’s card is to back the Mets on the moneyline at –155. The write-up stressed that Griffin Canning’s command gives New York a clear edge over Trevor Williams, who “has struggled to keep runs off the board.” Kingpin added that Washington’s lineup is “thin,” while New York brings the thunder with Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez. With the Nationals showing little scoring ability so far in 2025, the tout expects the Mets to roll even on the road and recommends a run-line sprinkle (–1.5) for bettors chasing extra value.

Kingpin advised jumping on a Pete Alonso 1+ RBI prop. The reasoning: Williams should have to throw strikes to the slugger with runners on, and Alonso remains “one of baseball’s elite power bats.” The article notes New York’s stacked heart of the order, which means Alonso is likely to hit with men aboard multiple times. A home run would obviously cash, but even a single to the gap is enough for the ticket.

Jay Croucher recommended backing the Mets on the moneyline at -158 after the NBC Sports Bet model showed a small but playable edge. Croucher pointed to several matchup factors that favor New York: Griffin Canning enters with a 3–1 record and 3.12 ERA, while Washington counters with Trevor Williams’ 5.11 ERA. New York is 19-9 overall and has won 6 of its last 7 road games that followed a defeat, suggesting yesterday’s blown seven-run lead is unlikely to spark a skid. The Nationals have still taken two of three in the series, but Croucher noted their 13-15 record and the Mets’ 15-13 mark on the run line as additional indicators of New York’s overall edge. Implied win probability at -158 (≈61%) was below the model’s 64% projection, giving bettors roughly a 3-point cushion.

Although the model makes the Mets a moneyline play, Jay Croucher explained why it simultaneously leans toward the Nationals +1.5 runs at home. Washington has covered the run line in two of the first three games of the series and just erased a seven-run deficit, showcasing a bullpen that can keep games tight late. New York is only 15-13 on the run line despite its strong overall record, indicating a tendency to win close rather than blow teams out. Trevor Williams’ last start (5 IP, 1 ER vs Baltimore) was solid enough to give Croucher confidence he can limit early damage, while Nationals games have gone 6-1-1 to the UNDER over their last eight—another sign they frequently stay inside low-scoring margins. With the +1.5 priced at modest juice, the model sees enough cushion to justify a split ticket: Mets to win, but Nats to keep it within a run.

Billy Ward recommended betting the YRFI at -118 (acceptable to -125) in Mets–Nationals. He noted both clubs roll out top-tier first-inning trios: the Mets open with Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso (Alonso’s wRC+ sits second only to Aaron Judge), while Washington gets spark from CJ Abrams in the leadoff spot. The game’s 9.5-run total signals run creation, and neither starter—Griffin Canning for New York nor Trevor Williams for Washington—has better than league-average underlying metrics early in games. Ward’s model expects those six bats to generate a disproportionate share of the scoring, making a first-inning run more likely than implied by current odds.

Greg Peterson played the Under 9.5 because both starters look far better than the market thinks. He noted Griffin Canning’s "career renaissance" for the Mets: 9.0 K/9 and a 3.12 ERA after last year’s 5.19, plus the Mets bullpen owns a 2.76 ERA (5th-best). On the other side, Trevor Williams’ surface 5.11 ERA disguises a 3.74 FIP and he flashed 2024 form when he logged a 2.03 ERA/2.79 FIP. With each pen ranking top-10 and both pitchers showing underlying improvement, Peterson handicapped the total at 8.8 runs and bet Under 9.5.

Guy Boston advised playing the full-game OVER 9.5 in Nationals–Mets. He noted both bullpens are in rough shape: Washington’s unit is "just a bad bullpen in general" and used five arms Sunday, while New York’s relief corps is "crazy taxed." He also highlighted hitting weather at Citi Field—nearly 80 degrees with wind blowing straight out to center—and said he is unconcerned if the first five innings start slow because late-inning volatility should produce runs. Additional context: Griffin Canning’s road ERA spikes compared to his strong home splits, and Trevor Williams rarely works deep, further exposing the shaky pens. All those factors, plus the possibility of Washington stealing the series, make the over his preferred angle.

Guy Boston flagged Trevor Williams UNDER 15.5 outs recorded as a potential prop play. The right-hander has failed to clear that number in nine of his last ten starts, including five straight on the road, and Washington has routinely yanked him after five innings. Even though the Nationals emptied their bullpen Sunday—creating some risk they let Williams go longer—Guy Boston still leans to the under because the coaching staff’s pattern is so pronounced. Facing a Mets lineup that can force high pitch counts reinforces the fade.

Jacob Fetner backed Francisco Lindor to go deep at +350 on Bet365 (+330 at FanDuel for the parlay). Lindor owns five multi-hit efforts in his last seven games, three of them three-hit nights, and has already left the yard five times this year, including a two-homer game versus Philadelphia last Monday. On Monday he faces Nationals right-hander Trevor Williams, who surrendered an MLB-high 34 long balls in 2023. In 14 prior at-bats against Williams, Lindor sports a .643 slugging percentage with one homer, a sample Fetner says shows the shortstop “sees him well.” The combination of Lindor’s current form and Williams’ gopher-ball tendencies makes the Mets star a strong HR prop target.

Jacob Fetner said James Wood is his favorite HR prop on Monday at +540. Wood already owns eight homers in just 105 at-bats, has hit safely in five of his last six and carries a .912 OPS against right-handed pitching with a 1.000 OPS at home. Statcast places the 22-year-old in the 95th percentile for barrel rate and average exit velocity and the 92nd percentile for bat speed. He draws Mets righty Griffin Canning, whose 31 homers allowed last season were among the worst in baseball. Fetner believes any mistake in the zone will be punished, making Wood worth a single bet and a key leg in SportsLine’s +22121 HR parlay.

Sean Zerillo recommended betting Over 9.5 runs (playable to -105) in Mets-Nationals. His projection spit out 9.88 runs thanks to near-perfect hitting conditions: 74° at first pitch with a light 4-5 mph breeze blowing out to left-center. Umpire Carlos Torres has historically juiced offense (129-118 to the Over, 52.2% hit rate, K-BB% two points worse than league average). Nationals Park itself ranks seventh in park factor (+2% over league average). Zerillo grades both lineups as above average versus right-handed pitching — 122 wRC+ for the Mets, 108 for the Nats. Conversely, starting pitchers Griffin Canning and Trevor Williams look due for regression: each owns a projected FIP north of 4.2 and sub-league-average strikeout rates (13.5% and 12.6%). Canning’s new release point has boosted his ground-ball rate, but his strikeouts remain pedestrian, while Williams’ underlying xERA has been under 4.0 the past two seasons yet projections peg him closer to 4.8 FIP. Zerillo tied the weather, umpire, park, and pitching regression angles together and labeled the current 9.5 total mis-priced.

Bryan Power played the over 9.5 in Monday’s series finale between the Mets and Nationals. He noted Sunday’s wild 8-7 Washington walk-off marked the first Mets game to allow a homer since April 11 and believes their league-best 2.74 runs-allowed mark is unsustainably low over 162 games. Griffin Canning gets the ball for New York; Power acknowledged the righty has held opponents to two earned or fewer in every start outside a hitter-friendly Sacramento outing but reminded listeners that last season with the Angels he posted a career-worst 6.8 K/9 and 5.80 ERA, so regression looms. Trevor Williams starts for Washington yet has not topped five innings all year, guaranteeing extended exposure to a Nats bullpen sporting MLB’s worst ERA. With both clubs already producing two walk-off barnburners in the set, Power expects another high-scoring affair and wants bettors on the over before the number rises.

Greg Peterson recommended attacking the Mets –1.5 at roughly +105 rather than laying the money-line chalk versus Washington. He thinks both starters will keep the game modestly scored (he made the total 8.8 and bet the UNDER 9), but trusts New York’s arms to separate late. Peterson reminded listeners the Mets entered Sunday with the third-best bullpen ERA in baseball—Oscar Brazoban owns a sub-2.00 mark and the only reliever north of 4.20 is Edwin Diaz—while Washington’s pen remains a mess behind Kyle Finnegan. Offensively, Peterson expects a lift from reinforcements: Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil are back, Francisco Lindor has climbed over .300 with five homers, and Pete Alonso is carrying a .450 OBP. By contrast, the Nats rely almost entirely on C.J. Abrams and rookie masher James Wood, and he questions whether yesterday’s late eruption will repeat. Given the bullpen disparity and looming positive regression for Juan Soto, Peterson is comfortable up to –158 on the straight money line but prefers the plus-money run-line payout.

Josephs wants to fade Trevor Williams on Monday afternoon. Books opened the right-hander’s strikeout prop at 3.5, but his 17.9 percent K-rate and 9.1 percent swinging-strike rate make even that modest number untouchable. More importantly, the Mets are the road team, guaranteeing nine trips to the plate against a pitcher allowing a .277 average the third time through the order. With Griffin Canning stabilizing New York’s rotation, Josephs likes Mets full-game moneyline and their team-total over 4.5, expecting sustained traffic once Williams cycles through the lineup a second time.

Kenny G floated a Pete Alonso home-run prop as a value play, noting the slugger is batting .333 with six homers and 26 RBI through 28 games and "probably feels like he’s got a little bit to make up for" after yesterday’s throwing error cost New York an 8-7 lead. Facing Trevor Williams, who has already surrendered four bombs in 24.2 innings and owns a 1.62 HR/9 since last season, Kenny likes Alonso’s chances to bounce back in a hitters’ park and atone for Sunday’s miscue.

Kenny G recommended a small play on the Mets at –160, reasoning that New York is unlikely to drop three of four to Washington with Griffin Canning on the mound. Canning’s only rough start came in Oakland, while his last two outings yielded just two total earned runs. By contrast, Trevor Williams’ 5.11 ERA and the league-worst 6.20 Nationals bullpen give New York a clear pitching edge once the game turns over to relief arms. Kenny added that the Mets offense scored seven runs yesterday and sits on a 19-9 overall record, suggesting the club will "buckle down" and salvage a series split.

Scott Reichel recommended Mets 1st-five -0.5 runs, trusting Griffin Canning to hold serve while fading contact-heavy Trevor Williams. Reichel argued Canning’s move to New York has rejuvenated him (3.35 ERA, 1.08 WHIP overall) and likes his chances to silence a Nationals lineup that strikes out 24% of the time versus righties. Williams, meanwhile, has yielded at least six hits in four of five starts and owns a .298 expected batting average against. With the Mets 16-5 as favorites and 7-3 in their last ten, Reichel thinks they jump out early even if their shaky bullpen eventually complicates matters.

It's The Final Round said Francisco Lindor is a prime hitting prop play against Trevor Williams. Williams leans on his four-seam 32 % of the time, and Lindor has crushed that pitch this season (.308 AVG, 11-for-33 with 2 HR). Williams is surrendering a .483 average on that same fastball (14-for-29, 1 HR), so his No. 1 pitch lines up perfectly with Lindor’s strength. Lindor is also 3-for-6 with a homer lifetime off Williams and owns a torrid streak – a hit in 21 of his last 24 games and five multi-hit efforts in the past seven. Pitch-by-pitch data shows further edges on Williams’ sweeper (.556 allowed) and slider (.250 allowed). The tout expects Lindor to clear 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs or at least record a hit and likes using him in hit parlays or single-stat overs.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Mets on the moneyline, citing a clear edge both at the plate and in the bullpen. Over the last two weeks New York owns a 110 wRC+, while Washington’s bats sit 26th in MLB at 82. The Mets’ relievers have been elite with a 2.46 ERA; the Nationals’ pen ranks dead-last at 6.49. Starter Tylor Megill has been “nearly untouchable” to open 2025, and the lineup gets extra depth with Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil healthy. Washington counters with rookie Mitchell Parker and must lean on a bullpen already stretched by short starts. With New York’s power and run prevention advantages, COSP argued the Mets should close this four-game set with another win.

Eric Pathi said to grab the Washington Nationals at the overnight price of +150 ("plus 50 cents") against the Mets on 4/28/25. Pathi’s logic is that whenever a team pulls off a big comeback—like the Nats rallying from a huge deficit to win 8-7 the previous day—and the market still gives them plus money the very next game, it is an automatic value play. He emphasized taking the dog in the Williams-versus-Canning pitching matchup, arguing that the momentum from the comeback and the attractive price outweigh any missing data the night before lines settle. Pathi framed the wager in a long-term, portfolio-style approach to betting rather than a one-off gamble, but the actionable takeaway is simple: bet Nationals moneyline at the overnight number.

Greg Peterson said bettors should attack the Mets –1.5 at the +105 to +110 range and lean Over 8.5 in Washington. He highlighted Tylor Megill’s breakout numbers—24.2 innings without a homer, 1.09 ERA, 2.18 FIP, 11 K/9—and a bullpen that ranks top-3 in ERA with Edwin Diaz, Reid Garrett and long men Jose Butto and Max Kranick ready for multi-inning bridge work. Mitchell Parker’s shiny 1.39 ERA is covering a 3.40 FIP and just 5.5 K/9; Peterson expects that luck to vanish once a healthier Mets lineup (Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil back, Pete Alonso already 5+ HR) sees him a second time. He called the Nats’ relief crew of Kyle Finnegan, Colmphousie and Jose Ferrer "one of baseball’s shakier groups" and noted Washington’s attack still whiffs a ton with CJ Abrams sitting on a .268 OBP. The combination of Parker regression, a suspect pen and Megill’s swing-and-miss stuff led Peterson to project New York by two or more runs and the total closer to 8.6.

Greg Peterson emphasized that Mets totals remain an under magnet, sitting at 8 overs, 18 unders and 1 push after Saturday’s 2-0 win over Washington. He attributed the trend to a lights-out bullpen (Edwin Diaz, Reed Garrett and Danny Young all logged scoreless frames again) and an offense that struggles to put up big numbers outside of the occasional Francisco Alvarez homer. With Citi Field suppressing power and New York’s starting pitching working deeper into games, Peterson advised bettors to keep targeting unders in Mets contests until the offense shows consistent life or bookmakers shave another half-run off the totals.

Kenny G hammered every version of the under for Sunday’s Mets-Nationals matchup. He pointed to a true ace-level pitching duel: Tylor Megill owns a 1.09 ERA with only 3 earned runs allowed through five starts, while rookie Mitchell Parker sports an equally absurd 1.39 ERA and has carried Washington to a 4-1 record in his outings, including eight shutout innings against Baltimore his last time out. The Mets’ bullpen backs Megill with the third-best ERA in MLB (2.46), allowing New York to lean on pitching while their offense sits just 17th in runs. Washington’s pen is MLB-worst at 6.49, so he prefers the first-five under and a NRFI to avoid late-inning volatility. Both lineups are middle of the pack or worse—New York has scored 5 runs or fewer in nine straight, and the Nats rank 15th in runs. Add in strong season-long under trends (Mets 18-8-1, Nats 14-12-1) and Kenny sees value on NRFI, 1st-5 under, and full-game under 8.5 rather than a side.

Although he likes the Mets to win, Cash Out Sports Picks also played the full-game OVER because both offenses have paths to production. New York has scored 4-plus runs in eight of its last ten and averaged 6.6 runs per game against Washington in 2024. The Nationals just plated 15 runs in three games versus Baltimore and five more in Friday’s opener, and they’ve tallied 22 runs over their last five at home. Megill’s history against Washington is shaky (4.84 career ERA versus the Nats), so the capper projects enough crooked numbers from both sides to eclipse the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Mets on the money line despite a low-scoring projection because New York owns every peripheral edge. Over the past two weeks their offense sports a 110 wRC+ while Washington sits at 82 (26th in MLB). The bullpen disparity is even starker: Mets relievers carry a 2.46 ERA (top-3) versus the Nationals’ league-worst 6.49. Tylor Megill (0.98 ERA) starts for the Mets and Mitchell Parker (1.41 ERA) for Washington, but the tout believes New York’s deeper lineup and far superior relief corps decide it late.

Chris Morgan celebrated Francisco Alvarez’s return from the IL, slotting him in tournaments at just $3,300. Alvarez belted 25 homers in 123 games two seasons ago and 11 in 100 contests last year. He now draws rookie lefty Mitchell Parker, whose surface 11.39 ERA dwarfs his 3.40 FIP but is propped up by a meager 5.57 K/9. Morgan believes Alvarez’s 50-grade raw power will punish Parker’s contact-friendly profile, giving drafters a rare cheap catcher with multi-homer potential.

Kingpin Staff advised betting the Mets on the -1.5 run line at -155 ML / -1.5 RL. They pointed to New York’s 18-8 start and +35 run differential, noting the lineup is "red-hot" while Washington’s offense sits near the bottom of every major category. On the mound, New York sends Tylor Megill, a “sturdy mid-rotation arm,” against rookie Mitchell Parker making just his second big-league appearance. With the Nationals already striking out at one of the league’s highest clips and producing little power, Kingpin expects the Mets to “cruise early,” combining timely hitting with a clear pitching advantage to win by multiple runs.

Kingpin Staff circled Pete Alonso as an anytime-home-run target against Washington rookie Mitchell Parker. Alonso enters the day in a "hot streak" and already owns 7 homers in his last 15 games. Parker’s fastball sat just 92 mph in his debut and produced a 48% hard-hit rate, numbers Kingpin says are tailor-made for Alonso’s pull-side power. With Nationals Park yielding a 15% HR boost to right-handed batters in April weather, they believe one mistake heater is all the slugger needs.

Todd Zola advised rolling out Tylor Megill for Sunday’s start in Washington. Megill owns a 27.8% strikeout rate that dwarfs the league average, while the Nationals rank bottom-five in walk rate, mitigating Megill’s own 10.2% walk problem. With veterans Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas still shelved, Megill has quietly produced a 3-2 record and is reinforcing a rotation that helped the Mets enter the weekend with MLB’s best record. Zola expects the whiffs to outweigh any free passes against an impatient Nationals lineup, making Megill a solid streaming choice in 10-team leagues.

Boor labeled New York an early value in the NL East futures market, noting the club’s 7-game win streak and surprising pitching depth. The Mets rotation owns a league-best 2.87 ERA despite missing its top two arms; Griffin Canning and depth starter Clay Holmes have combined for a 2.12 FIP over 28 innings. Offensively, the team is merely league-average in OPS but should spike once warmer weather aids Citi Field’s carry; Boor cited Jeff McNeil’s .245 BABIP (career .330) and Francisco Lindor’s 7% HR/FB rate (career 13%) as prime positive-regression candidates. Most importantly, Boor emphasized ownership’s willingness to buy aggressively at the deadline—projected additions that current futures prices (as high as +450 to win the division) are not fully baking in. He advised locking in Mets tickets before that number shortens and continuing to back them in plus-money matchups while their pitching edge remains mispriced.

Peterson is comfortable laying –115 to –125 on the Mets –1.5 because Washington’s opener strategy with Brad Lord leaves a shaky bullpen exposed. Lord is walking 6.0 per nine and rarely clears four innings, meaning a relief unit that already ranks bottom-six in ERA (Jose Ferrer, Kyle Finnegan, Cole Henry) must cover the bulk of the game. By contrast, the Mets’ pen sits top-three thanks to Oscar Brazoban, Jose Butto and Max Kranick—all rested after minimal use Friday. Clay Holmes has yet to allow a homer and pairs 11.5 K/9 with only 2 ER through his first five starts, giving New York six solid frames before turning it over. Peterson noted the Mets lineup is rounding into shape with Francisco Alvarez back and Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo all carrying .350-plus OBP. Washington still leans heavily on CJ Abrams and rookie masher James Wood, leaving too many empty at-bats against quality arms. With bullpen depth and lineup momentum both pointing to Flushing, Peterson made the Mets –125 on the run line and –200 on the money line.

Greg Peterson told listeners to keep playing unders in Mets contests after Friday’s 5-4 loss to Washington stayed below the closing total. New York now owns an MLB-best 17-8-1 record to the under. Peterson emphasized that the Mets’ offense ranks bottom-five in slugging percentage while their starting pitching—highlighted Friday by Kodai Senga’s six-inning, two-run effort—has consistently kept games tight. He also mentioned that the bullpen has multiple high-leverage arms holding opponents below a .200 batting average. Until sportsbooks make a major adjustment from the typical 8.5-run totals seen in most of their games, Peterson believes riding the trend remains profitable.

Kenny G likes the Mets at –180 (and even the –1.5 run line) to erase last night’s walk-off loss. He trusts Clay Holmes, who is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA and four dominant starts in five outings, plus a bullpen that owns the majors’ 4th-best ERA at 2.56. Washington counters with Brad Lord, a former reliever yet to record a decision; he allowed five hits and two earned in four innings his last time out and now hands the ball to MLB’s worst bullpen (6.89 ERA). The Nats are only 19th in batting average, and while C.J. Abrams’ return helps, Kenny doubts they can match New York’s offense headlined by Pete Alonso (.333, 6 HR, 26 RBI). With a clear pitching and lineup edge, Kenny sees the Mets as a strong rebound wager.

The tout expects limited scoring because both clubs routinely cash unders. Mets average 4.2 runs (17th) and have stayed under in 18 of 25 games; their contests average just 6.96 runs overall. Nationals mirror that 4.2 runs per game but, despite higher home splits, have played 13 unders in 25. With unfamiliar pitching matchups and neither lineup profiling as explosive, Cash Out Sports Picks projected a quieter afternoon at Nationals Park.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Mets straight up. They acknowledged New York’s 2-6 ATS mark as road favorites but emphasized a 71.4% cover rate after losses and a current seven-game heater entering the series. Starter Holmes has transitioned smoothly from closer to rotation arm, while the offense just welcomed back Jeff McNeil and Francisco Alvarez. Conversely, Washington’s starter Lord has yet to survive past the fourth inning, forcing a mediocre bullpen (heavy workload) into early duty—an angle the tout said ‘plays right into the Mets’ hands.’

It's The Final Round said Pete Alonso is a premium over target (total bases / hits / HR) against rookie Brad Lord. Lord leans on a four–seam fastball 47 % of the time and a sinker 29 %. He has been tattooed on both offerings, surrendering a .400 average on the heater and .429 on the sinker, plus a .333 clip on his slider. Alonso, meanwhile, is demolishing those same pitches this season: .417 (5-for-12) with 3 HR off four–seamers, .364 (8-for-22) with a HR off sinkers, and .300 (3-for-10) off sliders. Although the two have never faced each other, Alonso has recorded a knock in 9 of his last 10 games, so the tout expects Lord’s shaky command to turn into at least two total bases for the Mets’ slugger.

Marcus highlighted Pete Alonso ($5,500) as the premier spend-up bat in what will likely be the day’s most popular stack. Rookie right-hander Brad Lord has surrendered six earned runs and 20 baserunners across his first 11.1 MLB innings while showing a below-average 9.1% swinging-strike rate. Alonso’s 18.4% barrel rate and 92.7 mph average exit velocity make him the best bet to punish Lord’s mediocre heater. Marcus warned the stack will be chalky but still believes Alonso’s double-dong potential justifies the price and ownership.

Despite a salary hike to $7,800, Marcus insists Clay Holmes remains a bargain because his 30.1% strikeout rate is the best on the slate. The Nationals make a lot of contact, but their .293 team wOBA and 83 wRC+ versus righties keep the ceiling intact. Holmes has increased slider usage to 37%, fueling a 16.3% swinging-strike mark and helping him top 23 DK points in two of his last three turns. With winds blowing in at Citi Field and the Mets favored by –165, Marcus believes Holmes offers ace-level upside at an SP2 price.

Zola highlighted Mets bats as prime streaming options in Washington, singling out Brandon Nimmo but also mentioning Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, and Jeff McNeil. The Mets face rookie Brad Lord, whom THE BAT X projects for a 5.20 ERA and sub-18% K-rate. Nationals Park boosts left-handed power by 5%, enhancing Nimmo’s leadoff appeal. With Lord’s minor-league walk issues (10% BB-rate at Double-A) and a shaky Nats bullpen behind him, Zola expects plenty of on-base chances and run-scoring upside for daily-lineup managers hunting short-term offense.

Peterson laid -1.5 at -110 on the Mets behind Clay Holmes’ seamless transition to starting (3.14 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 0 HR allowed in five starts). Washington’s Brad Lord owns a 4.73 ERA with a scary 6.1 BB/9 and a 6-appearance sample that suggests regression despite the zero homers. Peterson’s fair price was Mets -1.5 -126.