Gilles Gallant labeled Nick Westbrook-Ikhine a live long-shot for Week 1. The wideout turned just 32 receptions into eight touchdowns last season, finishing top-20 in profits for both anytime and first-TD markets despite books hanging numbers as long as +500. Westbrook-Ikhine now slides in as Miami’s third receiver behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and immediately faces the Colts—a defense he scored on in both 2024 meetings. Gallant has already seen +400 posted for an anytime TD and expects that price to shorten once the market remembers how frequently Westbrook-Ikhine pops near the goal line, especially if the speedsters in front of him miss any snaps.

Ben Stevens advised fading Miami in their Week 1 visit to Indianapolis, noting the Dolphins are a slight road underdog in what bookmakers list as a pick ’em. Under Mike McDaniel, Miami is just 5-18 straight up when catching any points, an alarming 21.7% win rate that suggests the market consistently overprices them as dogs. Facing a healthier Colts squad in their home opener, Ben sees value grabbing Indianapolis on the moneyline rather than trusting a Dolphin club that historically wilts when expectations are even marginally low. The takeaway: side with the Colts or pass, because Miami’s dog profile under McDaniel has been a bankroll drain.

Best Ball Guy admitted he normally fades Dolphins stacks in season-long but pivots to Tyreek Hill in Underdog’s Eliminator because Week 1 is a must-advance and Indy provides the perfect springboard. The Colts surrendered the league’s highest explosive-pass rate (10% of attempts) in 2023 and rank 30th in man-coverage success, the exact looks Hill destroys. With Miami’s bye conveniently falling in Week 12, drafters get a clean run of early games before any sit-outs. BBG framed the pick as a hedge against his Christian McCaffrey exposure: if his 1.01 fails, Hill’s nuclear Week 1 ceiling can still keep the roster alive.

Claudia Bellofatto is laying the +1.5—or simply taking the moneyline—on Miami in Week 1 at Indianapolis. She notes the line is shorter than a typical three-point home spread, reflecting Indy’s uncertainty. The Colts rely too heavily on Jonathan Taylor, ranked sixth in rush rate, and field an underwhelming receiver group that finished bottom-10 in red-zone efficiency. They also lost key offensive-line pieces, and Anthony Richardson’s shoulder was already barking at OTAs. Bellofatto expects Miami’s diverse, explosive offense to exploit those weaknesses and win outright.