Kenny G sided with Boston at –178, though he labeled it a lighter conviction play. He refuses to trust Cal Quantrill (4-9, 5.09 ERA) on the road against a Fenway lineup that still ranks third in MLB in runs despite a brief cold spell. Boston counters with Brayan Bello (8-6, 3.25 ERA) and one of baseball’s elite bullpens, a unit Kenny rates top-three by ERA and leverage efficiency. Miami has dropped six of seven and its bullpen ERA has ballooned in August, while its offense—ninth in average but only 17th in runs—has produced just 10 runs across the last five games. Kenny considered the under 9.5 but ultimately prefers Boston’s money-line as the safer path, noting the club’s 39-22 home record and overall edge on the mound and in the pen. He cautioned, however, that the number is getting expensive and does not carry yesterday’s level of confidence.

Guy Boston Sports leaned Boston but preferred the Red Sox team total over (projected 4.5). Fenway’s bunch averages 5.26 runs at home and 7.0 over their last three. Sandy Alcantara’s mini resurgence vanished once he faced Houston and Atlanta, giving up 12 earned in those two starts, and Miami’s bullpen sits bottom-10 in ERA. With the Marlins still on a long road swing and the Sox returning home, he expects Boston to push past five runs Friday night.

Bill Harrelson said Trevor Story’s 0.5-run line is still too low while the shortstop is on a heater. Story has crossed the plate in 8 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 14 outings, averaging 1.1 runs with 4.4–4.6 plate appearances per game. Career numbers versus Sandy Alcantara jump off the page: .375 average, .444 OBP, .625 SLG. Alcantara is surrendering a .298 average to right-handed hitters, roughly 10 % worse than his overall .272 mark. With Story scorching and the pitcher struggling versus righties, Harrelson expects at least one trip home plate and took the higher than 0.5 runs on PrizePicks.

B Wade recommended Roman Anthony over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Anthony has been a consistent box-score stuffer since mid-July, clearing this line in the vast majority of his last 15 games and immediately bouncing back every time he has fallen short. He just slugged two homers and piled up six combined H/R/RBI in two games against Houston. Wade expects another spike night because Anthony draws a favorable matchup against Sandy Alcantara, whom Wade already projects to give up at least four runs. The combination of Anthony’s current form, lineup spot, and a hittable pitcher makes the over attractive.

B Wade advised betting Lucas Giolito under 2.5 earned runs. Giolito has stayed below this mark in 61 % of his starts overall, but Wade focused on the dominant home split: only one earned run allowed across his last four starts at Fenway and no home outing with more than one earned run since early June. Miami is swinging it, yet Wade noted the Marlins average nearly one full run less per game on the road (just under four) than at home (just under five). With the park, recent form, and opponent split all lining up, Wade expects Giolito to keep Miami to two or fewer.

B Wade said to take Sandy Alcantara over 3.5 earned runs allowed at Fenway. Alcantara has surrendered four or more runs in 61 % of his 2025 starts and has been even worse on the road, clearing this number in 8 of 10 away outings while averaging 4.6 runs allowed—including two road shut-outs that keep the mean deceptively low. Wade also pointed out that Miami routinely lets Alcantara wear it; he threw seven innings while giving up six runs in one ugly outing, so an early hook is unlikely. Boston is coming off a frustrating series in Houston and, according to Wade, profiles as an angry lineup ready to get right against a pitcher who is back to his hittable ways.

Kenny G is laying the –165 with Boston. Sandy Alcantara enters with a 6.55 ERA after back-to-back drubbings by Houston and Atlanta, while Lucas Giolito sits at 8-2 with a 3.77 ERA and recently spun eight shutout frames versus Houston. Boston owns one of MLB’s best bullpens and still ranks 3rd in runs and 5th in batting average. Fenway has been kind (39-22), whereas Miami is 30-32 away and six games out of the race. Kenny will keep it simple with the moneyline but noted the –1.5 run line is in play if you want more payout.

Jordan closed with Roman Anthony as a plus-money dart versus Sandy Alcantara. The Marlins ace is nursing poor recent form—.320 opponent average over his last two starts—and actually fares worse against right-handed hitters but is still allowing a .243 clip to lefties. Anthony, the Sox’s highly-touted call-up, is hitting .304 this week, and Outlier posts a 70 % probability for the 2+ hits/runs/RBI prop. The host likes Anthony in deep-field DFS contests and for speculative total-bases parlays while the market adjusts.