Stephen said to fire on the over for Jesus Luzardo’s strikeout prop because everything lines up for a ceiling performance. Washington owns the second-highest K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (28.4 %), while Luzardo has punched out 151 hitters in 133 innings and has recorded exactly seven strikeouts in six of his last nine outings. The host also noted the southpaw’s wild 42.1 % strikeout rate when facing left-handed batters, almost double his mark versus righties (22.6 %). Even though Luzardo’s K-rate dips slightly on the road (26 % vs 27.6 % at home), the matchup quality more than compensates, making the over a strong betting play and a DFS pitching anchor on Thursday’s seven-game slate.

Drew Martin circled Miami at +115 in Cleveland, leaning on a classic post-no-hit bid let-down angle. Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams threw 126 pitches, walked four, and lost a no-hit bid in the 9th his last time out; Martin expects fatigue-driven regression in the follow-up. He noted the Marlins’ lineup sees more pitches than any team in baseball, a trait that could hike Williams’ pitch count quickly. Miami counters with 22-year-old Yuri Perez (3.20 ERA), who needed only 82 pitches in a rough five-earned outing versus Atlanta; Martin expects a bounce-back with a full workload available. Even acknowledging accusations of homerism, Martin stated he will shelve the Fish if they drop both games in the set, but the plus price, Williams’ extreme pitch count, and Miami’s patience were enough for him to fire on the underdog.

Matt Perrault advised backing the Miami Marlins moneyline at +125 for one unit on Tuesday. Perrault noted Miami's consistent success when priced as underdogs and said they are a team bettors 'do not want to shy away from.' He specifically likes attacking this spot because the opposing starter is Junk, calling it 'a decent shot to take.' Perrault added that this is the first meeting between the two clubs, a situation he believes can tilt toward the road dog. The combination of Miami’s track record as dogs, the matchup against Junk, and the attractive plus-money number led Perrault to label the Marlins a value play despite being on the road.

Perrault is grabbing Miami at +125 with Jansen Junk on the hill. The Marlins have won five of the six games started by Junk, including three straight, posting run support lines of 6-4, 13-12, and 7-4 in those victories. He contrasts that with Cleveland starter Logan Allen, who owns a 4.06 ERA and 4-7 record at Progressive Field, surrendering 29 earned runs and nine homers in 64 home innings. The Guardians are only 29-27 at home, while Miami has repeatedly cashed as an underdog this season. With two unfamiliar opponents squaring off and Miami’s lineup showing fight after the deadline, Perrault likes the plus-money price enough to risk one unit on a Marlins money-line upset.

Bill Harrelson said Dane Myers should stay below 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs Tuesday versus Cleveland. Myers has cashed this under in nine straight games and in 17 of his last 20 (85%), collecting just one hit during that span despite averaging 3–4 plate appearances. He also stayed under the number the last time he faced the Guardians. For the season, Myers has gone under in 48 of 72 games (67%). Harrelson added that Myers is 0-for-3 lifetime off projected starter Logan Allen and that Underdog Fantasy is the only book still offering the prop, signaling market value. He views the under as a strong single-prop or anchor leg on PrizePicks.

B Wade took Josh Naylor over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs, citing both hot form and a lopsided personal matchup. Naylor has cleared the line in four of his last five outings, clubbing three homers in that stretch. He owns Baltimore pitching: 6-for-9 with a homer off Tuesday starter Dean Kremer (4.30 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) and six overs in his last seven games versus the Orioles overall—three straight earlier this season, plus three of five last year. Wade highlighted that previous series where Naylor racked up seven HRR in three games. Given Kremer’s still-lofty ratios despite recent improvement, Wade expects Cleveland’s middle-of-the-order bat to stay hot and provide solid value in two-leg Sleeper slips paying 2.7x.

Kenny G leaned to Cleveland at -140, citing a clear pitching and bullpen advantage. Logan Allen has righted the ship with back-to-back wins (7 IP 2 ER vs Rockies, 5 IP 1 ER vs Mets) and carries a 3.96 ERA, while Miami counters with Jansen Junk whose last four starts have been shaky and who owns a 3.97 ERA but mediocre peripherals. Cleveland’s bullpen sits top-7 in MLB with a 3.50 ERA; Miami’s has slid to 4.19. The Guardians are still in the playoff chase at 61-56 and playing better, whereas the 57-61 Marlins have dropped three straight and just went 1-4 against Atlanta. Offense remains Cleveland’s weakness (30th in AVG, 26th in runs), yet Jose Ramirez and company have been at least serviceable of late (4,3,9,4 runs their last four wins). Kenny acknowledged the price is a tad steep but views Guardians moneyline as the side thanks to the Allen edge on the mound and the far superior late-inning arms.

Lindquist said Miami’s moneyline is mis-priced against Cleveland. He is fading Logan Allen, noting the lefty’s 11 % walk rate, 1.44 WHIP and only 20 % called-plus-swinging-strike rate, numbers that do not justify the Guardians being sizeable favorites. Miami keeps grinding: since the break they rank 8th in MLB in OBP and have covered six of their past eight as dogs. Janson Junk is no ace, but Lindquist points out Miami’s bullpen (3.54 ERA last 30 days) quietly outranks Cleveland’s compromised relief corps after the trade deadline. With the Marlins stringing together quality ABs and Allen regularly laboring through five innings, Lindquist is grabbing the plus money.