Kenny G said he was leaning toward backing Miami at +145 because he prefers a proven arm in Eury Perez over the Mets’ untested call-up. Perez sits at 6-3 with a 3.44 ERA and is coming off six strong innings of two-run ball against Toronto, flashing what Kenny called “elite level stuff.” In contrast, New York is asking a rookie making his big-league debut to handle a must-win spot, and their bullpen has "been a little bit worse down the stretch." Kenny noted the Mets’ three errors that led to five unearned runs in Game 1 as evidence the club is pressing. While Miami’s own bullpen sports a shaky 4.21 ERA, Kenny feels the +145 price fully compensates for that risk and offers value for bettors willing to fade the rookie.

Kenny G backed the Mets -1.5 at roughly -110 juice, pointing to a mismatched pitching and hitting landscape. He expects Clay Holmes (11-6, 3.60 ERA) to be "generally good" after holding Atlanta to two runs last time out, while Marlins call-up Mouser offers little track record and will hand the ball to a bullpen rocking a 4.21 ERA. Offensively, New York has scored 6-6-13 in its last three, now sitting 10th in MLB runs and 9th in slugging; Miami mustered only five total runs in its Braves series and remains "significantly below average" overall. The Mets are 42-24 at Citi Field, the Marlins just 31-34 on the road. With New York’s pen still "above average" despite late-season hiccups, Kenny sees a clear edge across all phases and is willing to lay the run and a half rather than pay the steep -220 moneyline.

Eric Pathy advised taking the Miami Marlins at +85 cents on the moneyline against the New York Mets. Pathy emphasized that Miami is 52–55 straight-up when priced as an underdog this season, a record that has nonetheless produced consistent profit because of the generous plus prices. With books currently hanging more than 50 cents of value, he labeled the Marlins a clear value play for Thursday’s slate, calling the bet his complimentary selection for viewers who are not members of his Dime Club service.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended laying the chalk with the Mets to win and cover the spread versus Miami. The Marlins’ momentum evaporated after a surprise Yankees sweep, and they now turn to rookie Mazur, who has only 5.2 MLB innings. New York just swept Philadelphia and sends Holmes (3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) to the mound; at Citi Field he has held hitters to a .217 average across 70.1 IP. Over the last 10 days Miami owns an .225/.296/.368 slash (84 wRC+), while the Mets have torched pitchers with a .319/.404/.546 line (167 wRC+). Should Mazur exit early, Miami must rely on a bullpen that’s posted a 5.16 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in that same span. With Jansen Junk also slumping, the tout argued the Mets can’t afford to drop a game they clearly control on paper.