Kenny G leaned to Milwaukee −115 on the moneyline despite concerns over Jacob Misiorowski’s recent blow-ups. The Brewers own the best road mark in MLB at 36-25 and pair a resurgent 3.79 bullpen ERA with the league’s top offense in runs, second-best average, and OBP. Colin Rea was tagged for nine hits and four earned in his only 2025 start versus Milwaukee, and the once-elite Cubs lineup has cooled—zero or four runs in three of its last six games. Kenny trusts the Brewers’ offensive ceiling and improved relief corps to overcome any Misiorowski volatility and snap their mini-slide in Chicago.

Jay Yang said to lay the run-and-a-half with Milwaukee because Freddy Peralta gives the Brewers a lopsided starting-pitching advantage over Horton. Yang highlighted Peralta’s recent command gains—more strikes, fewer free passes, and a sharp drop in hard contact—and noted that Peralta has topped double-digit strikeouts in two of his last three outings. Chicago’s offense, meanwhile, owns one of the worst batting-average marks with runners in scoring position since the All-Star break and has scored two runs or fewer in seven of its last ten. Horton still flashes upside but walks 10% of batters and struggles versus patient lineups; Milwaukee ranks top-six in walk rate and has been barreling mistakes, slashing roughly .300/.350/.600 as a team during its current post-break surge. The Brewers are on an 18-6 run dating back to mid-July, while the Cubs have lost eight of ten. With a better arm, a hotter lineup, and the Cubs’ continued problems cashing runners, Yang concluded Milwaukee -1.5 is the simplest way to ride the trend.

Kenny G gave a slight lean to the Cubs at –125 in the opener against Milwaukee. He conceded the price is ‘a little rich’ but prefers Chicago because they are more accustomed to day games at Wrigley (38-21 home record) and Peralta was tagged for five runs in four innings the last time he faced them on July 30. Meanwhile, Cade Horton has allowed just three earned runs over his past 17.1 innings and has yet to face Milwaukee, giving the rookie the unfamiliarity edge. Although Milwaukee owns MLB’s best road mark (36-25), Kenny feels the Cubs’ familiarity with afternoon starts and their urgent Wild Card push give them the situational advantage, making Chicago a playable favorite if the number holds around –125.

Kenny G advised taking the under 8.5 runs in Game 1 of Monday’s Brewers–Cubs doubleheader. His case centers on strong starting pitching and tired bats. Freddy Peralta has been dominant in three of his last four outings, most recently firing six shutout innings with seven strikeouts against Pittsburgh. On the other side, 23-year-old Cade Horton just held Toronto to one hit over 5.2 frames with eight punch-outs and owns a 3.07 ERA across his last five starts. Kenny noted Chicago’s offense has cooled off—scoring four or fewer in seven straight—and that early-day games of twin bills often start sluggish. Wrigley totals sit 28-26-5 to the under this year, and he expects both bullpens (Milwaukee 3.83 ERA, Chicago 3.81) to keep the lid on late scoring. With a posted total of 8.5, he called the under the ‘by far better value’.

Lindquist targeted Nestor Cortes Over 4.5 strikeouts in his back-to-back start versus San Francisco. Cortes fanned six Giants in the first meeting and Lindquist cited FanGraphs data showing negligible drop-off in K rate for pitchers facing the same lineup in consecutive outings. The Giants remain a top-five club in strikeout percentage versus lefties, and Cortes generated ample early whiffs last time out. Books have not posted the line yet, but Lindquist expects the familiar 4.5 and plans to pounce when it appears.

Lindquist plans to bet the Brewers money-line in Game 2 of Monday’s double-header. Chicago is expected to activate Jamison Taillon off the IL, and Lindquist called the right-hander a “walking homer give-or-upper.” Milwaukee will likely counter with swing-man Chad Patrick, but the tout noted that Patrick can give Craig Counsell 75–80 pitches and the club’s high-leverage arms should be rested after being over-taxed Sunday. If the afternoon opener confirms wind blowing out, he expects books to hang a 9.5- or even 10-run total for the nightcap, which would bump Milwaukee’s implied team total past five. Because openers on double-headers are often stale, he recommends jumping early or building a Brewers ML parlay leg before the market fully prices in Taillon’s rust and the hitter-friendly conditions.

For his official show lock, Lonte Smith laid the short –115 with the Cubs, echoing many of Scott Reichel’s earlier points but adding his own wrinkles. He reiterated that Chicago is 12 games over .500 at Wrigley and draws a Milwaukee club four games under on the road. Rookie Cade Horton is coming off 5⅔ scoreless innings, while Brewers ace Freddy Peralta has been capped at five frames in five straight due to 100-plus pitch counts, routinely exposing a bullpen that sits bottom-10 in ERA. Smith thinks the real edge is early—wind is neutral so Chicago’s homer-heavy offense should still find the seats against Peralta’s rising fly-ball rate (career-high 44%). Once the pen takes over he gives the Cubs a clear advantage and called anything –120 or better a ‘gift’ price.

Scott Reichel is laying the short –115 with the Cubs, calling it a bargain for a club that sits 12 games over .500 at Wrigley. He argued that rookie Cade Horton (3-1, 3.47 ERA) is nearly on par with Freddy Peralta on a per-inning basis, but Peralta’s heavy pitch counts consistently cap him at five frames, forcing Milwaukee’s shaky bullpen (bottom-10 ERA) to shoulder innings. Chicago has won six of ten despite streaky power-dependent offense, whereas Milwaukee is four games under .500 on the road. Reichel trusts the Cubs’ late-inning edge and their dominant home split to carry the ticket.

Kenny G said the value pendulum has swung to the Chicago Cubs at –115 after Milwaukee opened as a juicy +130 underdog and was bet down to –105. He trusts Jameson Taillon’s current heater—7-3 record, 3.48 ERA and a 5-0 team run in his last five starts, none allowing more than two earned runs, plus a quality outing against the Brewers in early May. Chicago backs him with the No. 4 bullpen in baseball (3.15 ERA) and an offense that sits second in runs, fifth in batting average (.254) and fourth in slugging (.436) while owning a 24-10 home record. Kenny questioned how deep rookie Jacob Misorowski will work in his debut and called Milwaukee’s 4.39-ERA relief corps unreliable. With the Brewers just 16-20 on the road, Kenny is happy to lay up to –120 on the Cubs moneyline and has dropped his earlier Brewers lean entirely.

Drew Martin is again backing Freddy Peralta and the Brewers. Peralta owns a 2.60 ERA with 84 strikeouts and blanked the Cubs for six innings with seven Ks in their last meeting. Chicago counters with 23-year-old rookie Cade Horton, making only his second MLB start. Martin trusts Peralta’s proven ceiling and believes Milwaukee will be available at a plus price because the Brewers’ offense is inconsistent. He is taking the Brew Crew on the money line at Wrigley.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Chicago Cubs moneyline in Thursday’s series finale at Wrigley, highlighting a clear mismatch at the plate and a slight edge on the mound. Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta enters just 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, and all eight of his starts have come at hitter-friendly American Family Field. Rookie Cade Horton counters for Chicago with a clean 2.70 ERA, .226 opponent average and zero homers allowed over 16.2 home innings. While Milwaukee’s lineup sputters—24th in OPS (.679) and averaging only 4.31 runs—Chicago sits fourth in MLB with a .760 OPS and scores 5.34 runs per game. The tout also pointed to a recent 3-1 run by the Cubs against Milwaukee, noting the divisional stakes and home-field boost as additional reasons to lay the short price on Chicago.

Kenny G placed Milwaukee at +130 on his short list for "dog of the day" thanks to flamethrowing rookie Jacob Misiorowski. The 23-year-old debuted with five no-hit innings versus St. Louis and still carries a 0.00 ERA while touching 101 mph. Chicago sends Jameson Taillon (3.48 ERA) and is 5-0 in his last five starts, but the Cubs’ bats have cooled—scoring 5-3-2-1-3 runs across the last five games. Milwaukee’s lineup is similarly lukewarm (12th in runs yet 28th in SLG) but could steal this if Misiorowski turns in another five-plus scoreless frames before handing off to a mediocre yet improving bullpen (4.27 ERA). Kenny also likes a no-run first inning given two solid starters and offenses searching for form, but the primary wager is grabbing the plus-money Brewers in a divisional spot.

For a plus-money long-ball prop, Bamford tabbed Brewers catcher William Contreras to go deep off Jameson Taillon at Wrigley. Taillon may be in good overall form but has already surrendered 16 home runs this season, the most among Wednesday’s projected starters. Bamford added that Wrigley’s weather looks hitter-friendly and that Contreras owns the Brewers’ best hard-contact profile against right-handed four-seamers—the pitch Tyone throws nearly 50 % of the time. If the wind cooperates, Bamford sees Contreras as Milwaukee’s best bet to punish Tyone’s biggest weakness.

Malcom laid –145 with the Cubs, citing Jameson Taillon’s lights-out consistency—six to seven innings every time out and no more than two earned runs in any of his last five turns. Chicago has won all five of those games, covering the run line in four. The Cubs are 17-5 as a home favorite, and Taillon’s steady profile contrasts sharply with rookie Jacob Misiorowski, who walked four in an otherwise scoreless debut and now has to navigate Wrigley’s quirks. With the wind total still off the board, Bamford preferred the straightforward moneyline rather than a derivative.