For his official show lock, Lonte Smith laid the short –115 with the Cubs, echoing many of Scott Reichel’s earlier points but adding his own wrinkles. He reiterated that Chicago is 12 games over .500 at Wrigley and draws a Milwaukee club four games under on the road. Rookie Cade Horton is coming off 5⅔ scoreless innings, while Brewers ace Freddy Peralta has been capped at five frames in five straight due to 100-plus pitch counts, routinely exposing a bullpen that sits bottom-10 in ERA. Smith thinks the real edge is early—wind is neutral so Chicago’s homer-heavy offense should still find the seats against Peralta’s rising fly-ball rate (career-high 44%). Once the pen takes over he gives the Cubs a clear advantage and called anything –120 or better a ‘gift’ price.

Scott Reichel is laying the short –115 with the Cubs, calling it a bargain for a club that sits 12 games over .500 at Wrigley. He argued that rookie Cade Horton (3-1, 3.47 ERA) is nearly on par with Freddy Peralta on a per-inning basis, but Peralta’s heavy pitch counts consistently cap him at five frames, forcing Milwaukee’s shaky bullpen (bottom-10 ERA) to shoulder innings. Chicago has won six of ten despite streaky power-dependent offense, whereas Milwaukee is four games under .500 on the road. Reichel trusts the Cubs’ late-inning edge and their dominant home split to carry the ticket.

Kenny G said the value pendulum has swung to the Chicago Cubs at –115 after Milwaukee opened as a juicy +130 underdog and was bet down to –105. He trusts Jameson Taillon’s current heater—7-3 record, 3.48 ERA and a 5-0 team run in his last five starts, none allowing more than two earned runs, plus a quality outing against the Brewers in early May. Chicago backs him with the No. 4 bullpen in baseball (3.15 ERA) and an offense that sits second in runs, fifth in batting average (.254) and fourth in slugging (.436) while owning a 24-10 home record. Kenny questioned how deep rookie Jacob Misorowski will work in his debut and called Milwaukee’s 4.39-ERA relief corps unreliable. With the Brewers just 16-20 on the road, Kenny is happy to lay up to –120 on the Cubs moneyline and has dropped his earlier Brewers lean entirely.

Drew Martin is again backing Freddy Peralta and the Brewers. Peralta owns a 2.60 ERA with 84 strikeouts and blanked the Cubs for six innings with seven Ks in their last meeting. Chicago counters with 23-year-old rookie Cade Horton, making only his second MLB start. Martin trusts Peralta’s proven ceiling and believes Milwaukee will be available at a plus price because the Brewers’ offense is inconsistent. He is taking the Brew Crew on the money line at Wrigley.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Chicago Cubs moneyline in Thursday’s series finale at Wrigley, highlighting a clear mismatch at the plate and a slight edge on the mound. Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta enters just 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, and all eight of his starts have come at hitter-friendly American Family Field. Rookie Cade Horton counters for Chicago with a clean 2.70 ERA, .226 opponent average and zero homers allowed over 16.2 home innings. While Milwaukee’s lineup sputters—24th in OPS (.679) and averaging only 4.31 runs—Chicago sits fourth in MLB with a .760 OPS and scores 5.34 runs per game. The tout also pointed to a recent 3-1 run by the Cubs against Milwaukee, noting the divisional stakes and home-field boost as additional reasons to lay the short price on Chicago.

Kenny G placed Milwaukee at +130 on his short list for "dog of the day" thanks to flamethrowing rookie Jacob Misiorowski. The 23-year-old debuted with five no-hit innings versus St. Louis and still carries a 0.00 ERA while touching 101 mph. Chicago sends Jameson Taillon (3.48 ERA) and is 5-0 in his last five starts, but the Cubs’ bats have cooled—scoring 5-3-2-1-3 runs across the last five games. Milwaukee’s lineup is similarly lukewarm (12th in runs yet 28th in SLG) but could steal this if Misiorowski turns in another five-plus scoreless frames before handing off to a mediocre yet improving bullpen (4.27 ERA). Kenny also likes a no-run first inning given two solid starters and offenses searching for form, but the primary wager is grabbing the plus-money Brewers in a divisional spot.

For a plus-money long-ball prop, Bamford tabbed Brewers catcher William Contreras to go deep off Jameson Taillon at Wrigley. Taillon may be in good overall form but has already surrendered 16 home runs this season, the most among Wednesday’s projected starters. Bamford added that Wrigley’s weather looks hitter-friendly and that Contreras owns the Brewers’ best hard-contact profile against right-handed four-seamers—the pitch Tyone throws nearly 50 % of the time. If the wind cooperates, Bamford sees Contreras as Milwaukee’s best bet to punish Tyone’s biggest weakness.

Malcom laid –145 with the Cubs, citing Jameson Taillon’s lights-out consistency—six to seven innings every time out and no more than two earned runs in any of his last five turns. Chicago has won all five of those games, covering the run line in four. The Cubs are 17-5 as a home favorite, and Taillon’s steady profile contrasts sharply with rookie Jacob Misiorowski, who walked four in an otherwise scoreless debut and now has to navigate Wrigley’s quirks. With the wind total still off the board, Bamford preferred the straightforward moneyline rather than a derivative.