Just A Bet Outside leaned toward Joe Ryan’s strike-out over despite acknowledging his recent volatility (5, 4, 4, 11, 5 Ks last five). The Yankees have fanned at the fifth-highest clip versus right-handers over the past three weeks (24.3%). Ryan’s overall strike-out production remains strong—146 Ks in 132.1 innings—and his splits point upward here: 31.4% K rate at Target Field and a hefty 32.9% strike-out rate against right-handed bats, a category in which New York is heavy. The host expects the line to open around 6.5 and projects Ryan for 7 Ks, making a ladder to 8+ worth a sprinkle for bettors and a ceiling play in DFS tournaments.

Kenny G likes Minnesota at +115 behind Joe Ryan, who has strung together two sharp outings (13 IP, 3 ER combined) after a brief mid-summer wobble. Ryan has not faced the Yankees this season, giving him the surprise factor against a lineup that, despite erupting for 9 and 6 runs earlier this week, still sits merely second in MLB in runs because of recent inconsistency. Kenny is fading Cam Schlittler; while the young right-hander has allowed only four earned across his last two starts, he has continually pitched out of traffic and now meets a contact-oriented Twins lineup that just welcomed Byron Buxton back from the IL. The bigger edge, in Kenny’s eyes, is New York’s collapsing bullpen (4.24 ERA) versus Minnesota’s sticks once they get into middle relief. Given the plus price and Ryan’s form, he prefers the Twins to the total and labels them a worthwhile underdog wager.

Eric Lindquist said he is grabbing the plus-money Twins on Monday because he trusts Zebby Matthews more than Will Warren. Matthews carried a 29% strike-out rate and only a 6% walk rate at Triple-A, while Warren’s 26% K-rate is paired with a 10.6% walk clip. Lindquist added that Minnesota’s recent wave of St. Paul call-ups—highlighted by contact machine Luke Keishel, who went 3-for-5 with a walk-off homer Sunday—has immediately lowered the lineup’s strike-out profile and created instant chemistry. New York, meanwhile, is still juggling positions with Aaron Judge limited to DH and Giancarlo Stanton trying to survive in the outfield, a shuffle Lindquist thinks is hurting both defense and morale. With the hotter lineup and the better underlying pitching metrics, he wants the dog price on Minnesota.

Young called Gleyber Torres (misheard as Glamour) a 100 % clip play to record a hit, RBI, or run and suggested sprinkling a home-run ticket. Torres has at least one of those counting stats in seven straight contests thanks to a .318 average with runners in scoring position. With Juan Soto and Aaron Judge hitting ahead of him, Young expects Gleyber to bat with ducks on the pond multiple times, making the combo prop a high-floor wager while his recent 46 % hard-hit rate gives the homer sprinkle value.

Mills Young recommended the over on Will Warren’s 4.5-strikeout line, pointing out that the right-hander has cashed this ticket in 60 % of his recent starts. Even when Warren serves up the occasional long ball, Aaron Boone keeps him on the bump to eat innings, a stark contrast to how New York once protected prospects like Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. That leash, combined with a 27 % whiff rate on his slider, makes Young confident Warren can reach five or more punch-outs again.