Reynolds fired on Adam Schenk at a juicy 95/1 after Schenk snapped a six-event missed-cut skid with a Top-5 in Dallas last week. Beyond the form reversal, Schenk is a ONEflight brand ambassador, giving him extra incentive to shine with the sponsor’s name on the marquee. Reynolds believes that renewed confidence, combined with motivational narrative, is sometimes all a proven TOUR veteran needs to string together back-to-back big weeks in weak-field events.

Reynolds punched a 65/1 ticket on TOUR rookie Danny Walker, citing a blend of familiarity and recent approach play. Walker finished 6th at THE PLAYERS in March, endured a three-event slump, but rebounded with three made cuts and consecutive Top-25s. Over his last 20 rounds he ranks 6th in this field in SG: Approach. As a University of Virginia standout he logged 9th (2016) and 14th (2018) finishes at The Dunes in collegiate events, giving him more reps on the course than most of the field.

At 55/1 Reynolds considers Max McGreevy a classic buy-low. McGreevy closed 2024 with three worldwide victories (two Korn Ferry wins and the Dunlop Phoenix) and rediscovered that form with a T-4 at the Cognizant Classic after four early-season MCs. He has now cashed in seven of his last nine starts. Reynolds noted the confidence boost of turning 30 and becoming a new father, arguing an alternate-field event is the perfect spot for another breakthrough.

Reynolds grabbed Ricky Castillo at 41/1 after the rookie logged a solo 5th at last week’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson and a T-18 in the Zurich team event. Castillo rates 5th in this week’s field (22nd on TOUR) in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, giving him one of the best ball-striking floors among the alternates. Reynolds expects that profile to travel to The Dunes, where tight landing areas reward precise iron play far more than putting prowess.

Wes Reynolds backed Kevin Yu at 30/1, stressing how perfectly the Taiwanese bomber’s statistical profile matches The Dunes layout. Yu ranked second in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee here last year and rode that to a solo 4th. For the 2025 season he sits 8th on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee, 8th in Greens-in-Regulation and 18th in SG: Approach, a tee-to-green combo Reynolds believes is tailor-made for the narrow, water-guarded corridors of ‘Alligator Alley’. With driver now a bigger weapon after the 2023 renovation, Reynolds thinks Yu’s length plus accuracy gives him a real chance to claim the two-year exemption and PGA Championship berth that come with a win.

Bamford invested 1pt each-way at 85/1 on three-time PGA winner Cameron Champ, suggesting he could mimic Garrick Higgo’s recent opposite-field resurgence. Champ owns three top-20 finishes in his last six starts: 19th Astara (KFT), 16th Puerto Rico Open and 15th CJ Byron Nelson, where he ranked 17th SG Approach and 8th SG Putting. His maiden Tour win came on Champion UltraDwarf Bermuda at the 2018 Sanderson Farms, and he’s previously contended in the Southeast with 6th Sea Island (2018) and 10th at Augusta (2022). With elite driving power and confidence returning, Bamford sees The Dunes’ par-5s and soft opening conditions as an avenue to another surprise victory.

Steve Bamford backed Danny Walker for 1pt each-way at 66/1, pointing to the rookie’s 30th-ranked Strokes Gained Total on the entire PGA Tour—comparable to far shorter-priced names like Alex Smalley and Thorbjorn Olesen. Walker flashed ceiling form with a 6th at THE PLAYERS, gaining 4th Tee-to-Green at demanding TPC Sawgrass. Last week he sat 13th after 54 holes and finished 25th at the CJ Byron Nelson. Statistically positive across every SG category, Walker combines above-average length with precise irons. Bamford expects those traits to translate at The Dunes on his first Myrtle Beach appearance.

Bamford wagered 1pt each-way at 50/1 on Davis Riley, highlighting that the Mississippi native owns two wins in his last 58 PGA starts, both on Bermudagrass (2023 Zurich at TPC Louisiana and 2024 Colonial). Riley’s résumé is stacked with warm-weather top-10s: 8th Bay Hill 2024, 2nd and 7th Copperhead, 4th Colonial 2022, plus top-10s at Craig Ranch, Vidanta and Grand Reserve. His recent run shows 21st at The Masters, 7th at Copperhead, 38th TPC Sawgrass and 6th Puerto Rico before a quieter 45th at Craig Ranch. Bamford believes The Dunes’ Carolina layout, slightly shorter yardage and Champion UltraDwarf greens accentuate Riley’s Bermuda comfort and closing pedigree.

Steve Bamford staked 1.5pts each-way at 40/1 on Pierceson Coody, arguing the Texan mirrors Chris Gotterup’s 2024 breakthrough. Coody just closed 25th at the CJ Byron Nelson and was −9 over the weekend (T7 for Sat/Sun scoring). On Tour in 2025 he ranks 9th in both Driving Distance (all drives) and Carry Distance and finished 11th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green last week. Bamford notes Coody’s motivation in alternate-field events: 2nd at last year’s ISCO Championship and 5th at Colonial. Across his eight-week SG tracker Coody sits 10th for Current Form. He was 54th at The Dunes in 2024 after consecutive missed cuts, so Bamford expects a big jump with far better momentum.

Pat Mayo labeled Norman Xiong a live 300-1 outright for the Myrtle Beach Classic after digging into last week’s ShotLink. Xiong gained 2.4 strokes off the tee and 1.7 on approach in just two measured rounds, proof his prodigious length and iron talent are flashing again. Mayo shrugged off the predictable short-game meltdown—"horrendous on and around the greens, which happens to him"—because alt-field events reward raw ceiling more than consistency. The Myrtle Beach layout is a pure bomb-and-gouge track nicknamed "Alligator Alley," and Mayo believes Xiong’s 185-mph ball speed lets him overpower the par-5s and flip wedges into short par-4s. Given his amateur pedigree and ability to hang top-10 ball-striking numbers when hot, Mayo recommended sprinkling an each-way or top-20 along with the massive outright ticket.

Mike McClure's SportsLine model pegged Sami Valimaki at 40-1 as a live outright and top-five play, projecting him to challenge for the title. Valimaki has climbed to just outside the OWGR top-100 with only two missed cuts in individual events this season and a fourth-place finish at the Texas Children's Houston Open against a stronger field. His skill set maps perfectly to the Dunes layout: he ranks 14th in strokes gained: approach and 11th in strokes gained: putting, and his modest driving distance should not be a liability on this shorter track. The model believes his win probability far exceeds the implied 2.4%, making him a value bet for outrights and top-10/20 markets.

Mike McClure said his proprietary SportsLine simulation expects Mackenzie Hughes, the +2000 betting favorite, to disappoint at the Dunes Golf and Beach Club, projecting he will "barely crack the top-10." The model flagged several warning signs: only two top-10s all season, two missed cuts in his last five starts, and a trunk-slam against the weak Cognizant Classic field. Statistically Hughes sits outside the PGA Tour's top-100 in total strokes gained, off-the-tee, and approach, plus an ugly 137th in birdie average and 151st in sand-save percentage. On a course that rewards precise iron play and birdie conversion, the model believes those deficiencies make Hughes a fade in outrights, matchups, and DFS builds.

Alex Blickle advised listeners to steer clear of Luke List in both betting and DFS until the ball-striking rebounds. List has not gained strokes with his irons in any measured event since July 2024, a staggering slump for a player once marketed as an elite tee-to-green talent. His trademark driver has cooled as well—down from routinely gaining 3.5 strokes Off-the-T to barely scraping +2 on his good weeks—and recent ShotLink data shows he is losing strokes both around and on the greens. Blickle’s takeaway: the putter spike that produced rare wins at Farmers and Sanderson was always fragile, and now the safety net (approach play) is gone. He will fade List in outrights, top-20s and DFS until the iron numbers turn positive for multiple events.