Kenny G said the Mets are worth laying the -250 or playing on the -1.5 run line because every matchup angle tilts their way. Washington limp in on a four-game skid and have scored 0-4-2-0-2-1 runs their last six contests. Their bullpen remains a disaster with a 5.77 ERA that has hovered in the bottom three all season. Starter Michael Soroka is coming off his best outing of the year (6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER vs Texas) but has failed to show that ceiling in any other start, and Kenny doubts he can repeat it against a Mets offense that ranks 8th in runs and 4th in OBP and has plated 5-5-13-8-4 runs its last five. Kodai Senga (6-3, 1.59 ERA) has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight, and New York is 4-1 in those games. Senga already handled Washington once (6 IP, 2 ER in late April). Add in an MLB-best 26-7 home record and the league’s second-best bullpen, and Kenny expects the Mets to win comfortably, noting they could "score eight runs on their own."

B Wade fired on Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. The Polar Bear has eclipsed the mark in nine of his last 10 overall – eight straight – and in eight of his previous 11 clashes with Washington. He is 4-for-12 (.333) lifetime off Michael Soroka with one homer, and is batting .318 off right-handers this season. Wade likes pairing Alonso with Soto because of lineup-driven correlation: if the top of New York’s order strings hits, both props may cash in the same rally. Despite that correlation dinging payout to 4.06x, he still found it the best number on Chalkboard and locked it in.

B Wade backed Kodai Senga to stay UNDER 1.5 earned runs. Senga has allowed two or more earned only four times in 12 starts, keeping opponents to one run or fewer in eight outings. Three of his four overs came on the road, while at Citi Field he has surrendered just four total earned runs across six starts (under in five of six). Although Washington touched him up on the road earlier, Wade trusts the pitcher-friendly home environment and Nationals’ modest lineup to keep Senga in cruise control. The play is reinforced by Citi Field splits and a strong 8-of-12 hit rate to the under.

Eric Lindquist said the Nationals’ money-line price close to +200 is simply too high given the true talent gap between the clubs. Kodai Senga’s ghost-fork is nasty, but Lindquist expects books to hang his strikeout prop around 5.5 (-110 both ways), indicating only modest dominance. With Michael Soroka projected as a long reliever and a parade of left-handed bats (Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo) capable of denting Senga if he loses the zone, Lindquist labeled this game “dog-or-pass” and is leaning toward taking Washington outright.

Kenny G advised laying the heavy –250 or pivoting to the –1.5 run line on the Mets, calling it close to a "lock of the day." His confidence stems from a massive edge on the mound and in the bullpen. David Peterson owns a 2.80 ERA, has thrown 7.0 innings in three of his last four starts, and limited the Dodgers to three earned in Chavez Ravine last week. Opposite him, Jake Irvin is wobbling—10 hits and six earned versus Arizona two turns ago, eight hits and three earned against the Cubs last time out—pushing his ERA to 4.02. The Nationals’ pen is the second-worst in baseball (5.81 ERA) while the Mets’ relief corps sits at 2.86, the second-best mark in MLB. Offensively, Washington has cooled off (4-2-0-2-1 runs last five; 18th in runs, 23rd OBP, 21st AVG) whereas New York is humming (5-13-8-4-5-6 runs last six; 8th in runs) despite Francisco Alvarez being away on paternity leave. Citi Field has been a fortress—25-7 record, best home mark in the league—and Kenny expects that to continue against a Nationals club that is just 15-18 on the road. He sees a 6-2 or 5-1 type game and is comfortable swallowing the big price.

B Wade advised fading Josh Bell under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, pointing to Bell’s brutal .051 average (2-for-39) against left-handed pitching this season. Bell has eclipsed this line in only 2 of 11 games versus southpaws. He draws Mets lefty David Peterson on Wednesday, who sports a 2.80 ERA, 4-2 record, and 1.08 WHIP. Even with a reduced 1.6× payout on Underdog, Wade believes Bell’s extreme platoon struggles and Peterson’s efficiency make the under the profitable side.

Just A Bet Outside remained bullish on Mackenzie Gore’s strikeout upside even against a Mets lineup that owns the 4th-lowest K-rate versus lefties over the last three weeks (19.8%). Gore carries a 35.5% strikeout rate into the start and has been electric recently, allowing only nine hits and one earned run while piling up 24 strikeouts over his last 19 innings against the Cubs, Mariners, and Giants. The tout acknowledged that the matchup is not ideal on paper but argued that Gore’s raw stuff and current form can overwhelm contact-oriented offenses. Backing Gore’s over on Ks (or using him in DFS builds that reward strikeouts) is still in play because the left-hander’s swing-and-miss arsenal often overrides matchup concerns.

Kenny G encouraged backing the Mets—moneyline or even run line—thanks to a complete edge in pitching and current form. Griffin Canning owns a 6-2 record with a 2.90 ERA and just blanked the Dodgers for six frames (7 K, 3 H). He already dominated Washington on April 27, tossing five scoreless in a 19-5 rout. New York’s bullpen is elite at 2.91 ERA, while the offense is on a tear with 13-8-4-5-6 runs their last five, pushing the Mets to 42-24 overall. On the other side, McKenzie Gore has been excellent (2.87 ERA, one earned over his last three starts) but is backed by a dreadful Nationals pen (5.81 ERA) and an offense that has posted 2-0-2-1-2 runs its last five, slipping to 17th in scoring. Kenny believes Washington’s late-inning weakness and ice-cold bats will eventually crack against a Mets club that ranks third in run differential and crushed Colorado 25-8 over the weekend. With every metric pointing New York’s way, he is comfortable eating the chalk.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Mets moneyline despite Mackenzie Gore’s sparkling 2.87 ERA, stressing that Washington’s offense has vanished. New York enters playing like “one of the best teams in baseball,” fueled by Griffin Canning’s 2.90 ERA and six shutout frames against the Dodgers last time out. The tout noted the Mets have previously hit Gore well and that the southpaw’s splits worsen on the road. Given the Nationals’ run-scoring drought and New York’s momentum, he viewed the chalk as justified.

Razzle called Griffin Canning an "excellent option" at $7.7k. Canning’s last start was a season-best gem versus the Dodgers, and he already blanked Washington once earlier this year. While his overall numbers look pedestrian, he has been better on the road in every category—lower AVG, fewer homers—and today’s park shift helps. The K prop sits at 4.5 (juice to the over), giving him a realistic path to 6+ strikeouts with win equity. Razzle plans on including Canning in both cash and smaller GPP pools as a salary saver that still carries reasonable upside.

Drew Martin played the Nationals–Mets under 7.5, citing two surging starters and limp bats. MacKenzie Gore has delivered three straight gems—19 IP, 1 ER, 24 K—while Griffin Canning counters with a sub-3.00 ERA and six shutout frames versus the Dodgers last outing. Washington enters with MLB’s coldest lineup this week and ranks just 20th on the season; Martin expects Canning to cruise. He also believes Gore can ‘chop up’ a Mets order that has been inconsistent, forecasting both arms to reach the 6th or 7th inning. Although Washington’s relief unit can be shaky, Martin trusts their top end in a shortened assignment and notes the Mets pen has been solid. He envisions a 3-1 type final that never challenges eight runs, making the under his best bet of the day.

B Wade said Mackenzie Gore should clear 6.5 strikeouts Tuesday. Gore is striking out almost 13 batters per nine and averages 8.3 Ks per start. He has failed to reach seven punch-outs only twice all season (Toronto and Philadelphia) and has now cashed this number in six straight outings, good for an 85 % hit rate. With a sub-3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, Wade expects Gore to stay in the game long enough to rack up whiffs unless the Mets somehow chase him early, something only one opponent has managed—and even then Gore still posted nine Ks. Wade is locking in the over.