JD Bets laid the −178 moneyline with Philadelphia, saying the Phils are in "ride the streak" territory after several straight wins and he flat-out does not trust Washington spot-starter Brad Lord. Taijuan Walker has “shut them down” historically, limiting current Nats bats to a .231 average and sub-.800 OPS in 13 combined at-bats while allowing just one homer. Lord, meanwhile, shows almost no MLB sample and managed only 4–5 strikeouts against Colorado—hardly an endorsement. Philadelphia’s lineup owns a .368 wOBA and .325 OBP versus right-handed pitching, and Walker’s home splits plus a loud Citizens Bank crowd make JD comfortable laying the short price despite the juice.

Drew Martin was willing to swallow –170 with the Phillies, noting Taijuan Walker’s 2.70 ERA and strong home splits. Philadelphia’s bats are rolling while Washington ranks bottom-10 in offense and dead last in bullpen ERA. Martin hates laying more than –150 but called this price fair given the starting-pitching and bullpen disparity and recommended listing Walker to avoid any late scratches.

Dylan Rockford played over 9.5 in Nationals-Phillies, citing two shaky starters and atrocious bullpens. Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker owns a 2.78 ERA on paper but has been tagged in two of his last three outings (combined 7 ER in 7 IP versus the Giants and Cubs) and rarely works deep. Washington counters with long-man-turned-opener Brad Lord, who has allowed at least two runs in each of his last three appearances while stretching to four-plus innings. Rockford reminded listeners that these clubs have the two worst relief ERAs in baseball and that Citizens Bank Park overs are 9-5 this season with wind once again forecast to blow out. The Phillies average 5.3 runs per home game (top-five) and the Nats’ bats have woken up this week, leading him to project double-digit scoring by the seventh inning.

Eric Lindquist wants a quarter-unit on a Kyle Schwarber home-run prop as long as books hang anything better than +230 (he will bump to a half-unit if the opener reaches +250). Citizens Bank Park is expected to have wind blowing out again, and the total has already hit 9.5. Lindquist called Washington spot-starter Brad Lord and Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker “two righties that just don’t belong in the big leagues,” highlighting Walker’s 11.7° average launch angle allowed and Lord’s general lack of swing-and-miss stuff. Schwarber owns a .593 expected slugging and 55.8 % hard-hit rate versus right-handers this season and has been one of Lindquist’s three historical “double-dong” candidates. Because Schwarber also carries a 17.8 % walk rate, Lindquist will hedge with a Walk prop, but the actionable edge is the HR number if the market stays in the Aaron Judge/Shohei Ohtani price range.

The tout endorsed the over 9.5, noting both clubs are riding high-scoring streaks. Washington has gone over in four of its last five, largely because the staff has allowed seven-plus runs in three of those games. Philadelphia has cleared the total in two-thirds of its home dates, and three of the five head-to-head meetings in 2025 have already gone over. With the Nationals’ bullpen still hemorrhaging runs and the Phillies swinging hot bats, Cash Out Sports Picks anticipates another scoreboard-lighting affair in South Philly.

Cash Out Sports Picks made Philadelphia the side play, leaning on Taijuan Walker’s 2.78 ERA and the club’s 3-2 record in his starts. Washington counters with converted reliever Lord, who is 0-3 as a starter while the Nationals are 1-3 when he takes the ball. The Phillies boast the league’s fourth-best on-base percentage and entered the game on a three-game win streak, having already won three of the first four meetings with Washington. With Philly jockeying with the Mets atop the NL East and facing a shaky opposing hurler, the tout expects another comfortable home win.

B Wade recommended Alec Bohm over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Bohm has missed this mark only twice in his last 12 games and has hit it in five straight at Citizens Bank Park. He faces Brad Lord, lugging a 4.67 ERA and 1.70 WHIP while failing to record an out past the first batter of the fifth inning all season, meaning the Phillies will also get several innings of mediocre bullpen arms. Given Bohm’s current tear and the opponent’s inability to keep runners off base, Wade believes the line is too low.

Kenny G recommended laying –170 with Philadelphia, trusting Taijuan Walker (2.78 ERA; only blemish a single blow-up vs San Francisco) far more than rookie Brad Lord, who has pitched respectably but remains win-less because Washington’s bullpen is an abysmal 7.41 ERA—“batting practice as soon as the starter leaves.” Philadelphia’s pen is shaky too (5.03 ERA), yet Kenny expects their surging offense (seven or more runs in three of the last four; 4th in MLB OBP) led by Kyle Schwarber’s nine homers to build a cushion. Washington is 4-10 on the road and owns the league’s best over record (21-9) due to that relief disaster, while the Phillies are 10-4 at Citizens Bank Park. Kenny leans to the 9.5-run over but says the stronger angle is simply backing the hotter, deeper Philly club to keep its four-game win streak alive against a Nationals team with too many late-inning leaks.

Erik Halterman argued that MacKenzie Gore’s perceived hot streak is actually a legitimate breakout worth overpaying for before the market adjusts. While the surface 3.34 ERA suggests improvement, Gore’s 2.17 SIERA screams frontline dominance. He fanned 13 Phillies on Opening Day and repeated 13 strikeouts at Coors Field on April 19. His 37% strikeout rate trails only the now-injured Logan Gilbert and he has slashed his walk rate to an elite 6% after seasons of 10% and 9%. The former Padres blue-chip prospect was a centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade and appears to have finally paired his stuff with command. Because the ERA is good but not mind-blowing, Halterman believes some managers will think they’re selling high on a fluky run; in reality, the skills profile supports ace-level production. Make aggressive trade offers in season-long formats while there’s still skepticism about Gore’s staying power.

Erik Halterman advised scooping up Aaron Nola before the ERA tax disappears. Nola’s 5.40 ERA / 1.40 WHIP look scary, but his 3.58 SIERA is actually better than the 3.75 and 3.68 he posted the last two seasons and right on top of his 3.51 career mark. Strikeout rate (25%) is sandwiched between last year’s 24% and 2023’s 26%. The walk rate is up to 8%, highest since 2020, but still manageable. What’s really inflating the ERA is bad variance: a 16.2% HR/FB (league 10.7%, career 13.9% even in homer-happy Citizens Bank Park), a .330 BABIP versus his .293 career figure, and a 67% strand rate vs a 74% norm. Halterman noted Nola looked like vintage Nola in his latest start (7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H vs Cubs). All the underlying indicators say the ace is intact, so grab him now while the box-score stats scare his current manager.

Data Skrive noted Kyle Schwarber is sitting at +230 to go deep against the Nationals after already clobbering 9 homers in 30 games (a 30% dinger rate). The +230 line implies about a 30% chance, so the book has finally caught up to his raw power—but considering Schwarber’s career HR/game sits closer to 32-33% when facing right-handed pitching, there’s still a hair of positive EV if you believe the platoon edge and warm weather in Philly bump the HR probability a tick above the market.

He also bet Over 9.5 because both starters carry walk issues (Walker 4.0 BB/9, Lord 4.7 BB/9) that inflate pitch counts and lead to early bullpen exposure—terrible news given Washington’s 7.47 pen ERA. With warm weather and two wild staffs, Peterson projected 9.6 runs, clearing the posted total.

Peterson still laid -1.5 runs at +115 with Philadelphia even though Taijuan Walker’s 4.05 FIP hints at ERA regression, because Washington counters with Brad Lord (4.67 ERA, 4.7 BB/9) and the worst bullpen in baseball (7.47 ERA). Philadelphia’s lineup should exploit Lord’s shaky command, and Peterson’s model priced the run line at -111, giving bettors more than a quarter-run of value.

Bryan Zarpentine backed Taijuan Walker to stay Under 2.5 earned runs at +120. Walker owns a 2.78 ERA and has surrendered two runs or fewer in four of five 2025 starts despite rarely working deep (failed to finish five innings in four outings, no appearance past five since Opening Day). Zarpentine argued the short leash actually helps this prop because fewer innings means fewer chances for damage. The matchup is friendly as well: current Nationals hitters are just 8-for-47 (.170) off Walker lifetime. Put it together and Zarpentine expects another sub-three-run line from the right-hander.

Guy Boston also leaned to Philadelphia -0.5 in the first five innings. He cited Chris Sanchez’s home splits—2.31 ERA, 1.08 WHIP—and a Nationals line-up that is bottom-five in ISO versus left-handed pitching. Jake Irvin has kept games close, but Boston expects the Phillies’ star-studded order to "turn a corner and be absolutely electric" sooner rather than later. Sanchez’s sinker/change keeps the ball on the ground, and if Philly scratches even two early runs, Boston likes them to lead after five given Sanchez’s edge over Irvin’s 4.58 xERA on the road.

Adam Rosenberg said to play Cristopher Sanchez under 5.5 strikeouts. Washington owns one of the lowest K-rates against left-handed pitching and has posted six or fewer punch-outs in five straight games versus southpaws. Rosenberg added that Sanchez left his last start with a potential injury scare and the Phillies would likely pull him early at the first hint of trouble. Given Sanchez’s ground-ball profile and the Nationals’ high-contact approach, Rosenberg does not expect enough whiffs for six strikeouts.

Dylan Rockford played over 8 in Nationals-Phillies because the two worst bullpens in baseball are involved. He projects 8.4 runs with Cristopher Sanchez and Jake Irvin pitching, noting both have been serviceable but likely hand off to gas-can relief groups early. Philadelphia’s pen owns the league’s highest ERA, and Washington isn’t far behind. Irvin already saw the Phils once, holding them in check until his bullpen imploded. Rockford expects a repeat scenario and thinks either lineup can generate late crooked numbers, making any flat eight—juice or not—worth a wager.

Malcolm Bamford grabbed Washington at +188 after the pitching change to Cristopher Sanchez. He loves what Jake Irvin has shown—19-to-2 K/BB and only three earned runs over his last 20.2 innings with the Nats winning each of those starts. Sanchez is serviceable but hardly dominant (3.42 ERA and pulled after two shaky innings vs the Mets). Bamford believes the number inflated simply because of Philadelphia’s name value and thinks Irvin can keep it close into the late innings, making nearly 2-to-1 too juicy to pass.

Kenny G leaned toward the Nationals at +188, arguing the number ignores how vulnerable Philadelphia is once Christopher Sanchez exits. Sanchez lasted only two innings in his previous turn and is still listed as questionable, so Kenny thinks five healthy frames is the ceiling. From there the Phillies hand the ball to the second-worst bullpen in baseball (5.25 ERA), one Kenny said is "capable of giving up any lead." Washington’s pen is even worse (7.47 ERA) but Irvin has been giving length, allowing Davey Martinez to shorten the chain on his relievers. Kenny also cited the Nats’ recent offensive pulse—5, 8, 0, 5 runs—and pointed out that Philly’s hot bats have pushed this line too far. Because the bullpens turn the matchup into a coin-flip late, he believes grabbing nearly 2-to-1 is the sharp side play.

Kenny G suggested a sprinkle on the over 8 because both teams feature disastrous relief pitching and questionable starters. Nationals starter Jake Irvin is in good form (3.19 ERA, 7.1 IP, 1 ER vs Mets) but immediately hands the ball to baseball’s worst bullpen (7.47 ERA). Phillies lefty Christopher Sanchez owns a 3.42 ERA but lasted only two innings in his last start and may not be fully healthy, meaning plenty of work for Philadelphia’s 5.25 ERA pen (second worst in MLB). Offenses are heating up: Washington has posted 6,5,8,0,5 runs in recent games, while Philly has dropped 7,3,10 in its last three and ranks third in OBP. With Citizens Bank Park’s hitter-friendly dimensions and two late-inning gas-can units, Kenny believes eight runs is a modest hurdle and calls the over the smartest approach to this game.

Trea Turner sports a .333 career average versus Jake Irvin and has hits in 8 of his last 11. The analyst sees value on Turner’s hits line against the inexperienced right-hander.

Howard is taking a shot on Washington at roughly +185 because he sees very little separating Jake Irvin and Cristopher Sanchez right now. Over their past five turns Irvin owns a 2.87 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, even blanking the Mets for six innings, while Sanchez has been tagged for 10 runs across his last 11 frames. Howard argued that Philadelphia’s left-handed–heavy lineup just faced southpaw MacKenzie Gore tonight and now flips to a righty they’ve seen only once this year, minimizing the split advantage Sanchez usually enjoys. With the game essentially a toss-up in his model (he makes it Phillies –125), Howard believes the Nats’ big price is "too fat to ignore" and will sprinkle the money-line plus a smaller piece on the first-five line.

Romanelli played Philadelphia’s team total over because Jake Irvin already showed vulnerability against them earlier this year and currently owns one of the league’s highest expected ERAs due to consistent hard contact. Even without knowing the Phillies’ starter, Ron trusts their offense to crack Irvin early and tack on against a Washington bullpen carrying the worst ERA in baseball.

For plus money (+110), Zarpentine endorsed CJ Abrams Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI. Washington’s leadoff spark plug owns a five-game hit streak, punctuated by a 4-for-5 near-cycle Tuesday. Over that span he’s scored three times and driven in four, while the Nationals have scored five-plus in four of five. Abrams also sports a 5-for-15 career line against Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez, giving him the handedness edge and familiarity. With his speed creating extra base opportunities and Washington’s bats suddenly hot, Zarpentine sees multiple paths—hits, runs or RBIs—for Abrams to cash the prop again.

Malcolm Bamford played the Nationals TEAM TOTAL UNDER (likely 3.0 or 3.5). He likes MacKenzie Gore but does not trust the Nats’ sticks away from D.C.—they are 4-9 on the road, averaging just 3.2 runs with a .215 team average. Zack Wheeler’s underlying metrics (28% K-rate, 2.81 xERA) suggest he can work deep enough to avoid Philadelphia’s shaky bullpen (4.85 home ERA). With little power and a bottom-five hard-hit rate, Malcolm sees Washington scratching out two or fewer.

Lonte Smith grabbed Washington around +155 and sprinkled the full-game UNDER 8.5. Gore leads MLB in strikeouts and has logged six innings in four straight starts, allowing 0-2 earned in three of them. Philadelphia is hitting only .226 at Citizens Bank Park and their bullpen has a 6+ ERA across the past 10 games, forcing Wheeler to shoulder extra innings. Lonte believes the feisty Nats—fresh off a series win over the hot Mets—can hang around and steal it 4-3 or 3-2 if Gore posts another quality start and the Phillies’ bats stay cold.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Philadelphia on the money-line. Zack Wheeler is untouchable at Citizens Bank Park so far: 14 IP, 23 K, 0 BB and zero losses. He already stifled Washington on Opening Day (6 IP, 1 R, 2 H, 8 K). The Nationals are 4-9 on the road, and both clubs sport the two worst bullpens in the National League, making an early Wheeler lead especially valuable. Philadelphia has taken six of the last ten meetings, five of them by 3-plus runs, reinforcing the tout’s confidence.

Kenny G leaned toward taking the Nationals at +160, calling the number too rich for a Phillies club he does not fully trust. MacKenzie Gore has quietly strung together quality work (3.34 ERA, 13-strikeout gem vs Colorado, two earned or fewer in back-to-back starts), and Washington’s 2-3 record in his outings masks how well he has thrown. Zack Wheeler is stabilizing (3.62 ERA) but still only 2-1 and has been hittable in several appearances. The matchup of the league’s two worst bullpens—Washington dead last, Philadelphia second-worst at 5.28 ERA—neutralizes any late-inning edge the Phillies might usually have. Offensively, neither side is dominant: Philly sits 12th in runs and has posted 3, 10, 0, 3, 1 in its last five; Washington is 15th in runs with Abrams back but remains middle-of-the-road. Given the even pitching matchup and mutual bullpen volatility, Kenny thinks the hefty underdog price on the Nationals offers sneaky value even though it will not make his Dog-of-the-Day list.

Peterson played Under 8.5 (projected 7.6) in Nationals-Phillies. He highlighted MacKenzie Gore’s underlying dominance—1.99 FIP, 13.6 K/9, just 0.8 HR/9 versus a surface 3.34 ERA—plus Zack Wheeler’s 12.1 K/9 and 3.18 FIP that hint his 3.62 ERA should fall. With two strikeout artists and no glaring bullpen liabilities, he forecasts limited scoring at Citizens Bank Park.