MMA Guru said Nazim Sadykhov should finish Nicholas Motta in the late 2nd or 3rd round. Guru accepts that Motta’s best (and perhaps only) path is an early counter—Motta wings three- and four-punch hook flurries that can catch opponents leaning. Sadykhov’s Philly-shell defense excels against straight shots, so Guru wants to see him tighten the guard against those hooks for the first three minutes and stay patient. Once the initial storm passes, Guru expects Sadykhov’s relentless forward pressure, superior cardio and cleaner fundamentals to turn the fight into ‘one-way traffic’. He also noted Sadykhov’s toughness (survived a sliced-open skull vs Bonfim yet rallied) and the fact that oddsmakers have him a –400 favorite, backing up the analysis. Motta’s recent wins came over tall retreating strikers like Tom Nolan whose habit of leaning back played into Motta’s loops; Sadykhov is shorter, sturdier, and won’t give that target. All of this points to a volume build-up that snowballs into a ground-and-pound or standing TKO once Motta is stuck on the back foot.

Guru played MORE than 41.5 significant strikes for Nazim Sadykhov, banking on a ‘bit of a scrap’. He expects Sadykhov’s opponent to oblige in extended, back-and-forth exchanges that push both fighters past 40 landed shots. Sadykhov averaged 5.7 sig strikes per minute in his two UFC bouts, so a three-round firefight would smash the line.

Sniper called Sadykhov-Motta his third-favorite DFS target on the entire Baku card and laid out an almost all-in approach. Because he feels the slate is "light on underdogs," he plans roughly 60 % exposure to the $9.4K favorite Nazim Sadykhov and 30 % to $7.0K Nikolas Motta, leaving only token fades elsewhere. Sadykhov’s resume—wars with Borshchev and McKinney, 7.5 significant strikes per minute in Round 3, 75 % takedown defense and a –440 moneyline—makes him the safer side, but every combined professional loss between the two combatants has ended inside the distance. Motta’s puncher’s chance is real after a 60-second KO of top prospect Tom Nolan and two knockdowns of Maheshate. With the ITD prop sitting at –250 and projected ownership favoring Sadykhov, Sniper believes the winner smashes value and sneaks onto the optimal lineup far more often than salary-based models predict. He will fade the fight only in cash games, preferring to exploit its volatility in large-field GPPs.

Sniper agreed that Nikolas Motta has improved—highlighting the one-minute knockout of prized prospect Tom Nolan and two knockdowns of Maheshate—but still prefers the more consistent Nazim Sadykhov in all formats. He praised Sadykhov’s escalating strike rate (up to 7.5 per minute in third rounds), solid 75% takedown defense and resume of high-octane wars with Slava Borshchev and Terrance McKinney. While acknowledging Sadykhov’s notorious fence-grabbing against McKinney, Sniper expects the Azerbaijani prospect to dictate pace and find a finish in a matchup where every combined loss has ended inside the distance. He plans to be overweight on Sadykhov even at $9.4K, viewing the –440 moneyline and –250 ITD prop as slate-breaking upside.

Monk advised treating Nazim Sadykhov ($9.4K) vs. Nikolas Motta strictly as a tournament fight. Both men get out-struck by nearly one strike per minute yet own strong takedown defense, creating scramble-heavy chaos that rarely goes to decision (all five Motta losses are finishes; Sadykhov’s lone defeat was a submission). The inside-the-distance line sits at –250, but Monk warned Sadykhov’s salary is $1,000 above his historical average, making him hard to jam into cash builds. He will roster both sides in GPPs—leaning Sadykhov for superior wins over Elder, McKinney and Bonfim—but will completely fade the matchup in double-ups and head-to-heads.

Dan Tom said he is sliding Nikolas Motta by knockout (+700) into his round-robin because, in his words, “that is his win condition.” Earlier in the show Tom argued the southpaw Motta’s money left hand is tailor-made to punish Nazim Sadykhov’s shoulder-roll style and porous leg-kick defense. Sadykhov has been dropped five times by left-handers, owns a 0.0 % UFC takedown success rate, and routinely fights on razor-thin margins—he was losing to Evan Elder before a doctor stoppage and drew with Slava Borshchev after gifting a 10-8 round. Motta, meanwhile, has shored up cardio and takedown defense since moving to Xtreme Couture, giving him enough gas to hunt the one big shot for 15 minutes. Because Motta rarely wins decisions (8 of 13 pro finishes by KO) and +700 is more than double his money-line price, Tom believes the knockout prop is the smartest way to attack a volatile striker’s duel while keeping exposure small inside a plus-money parlay.

Madlab Michael Lurato sided with Nazim Sadykhov to win but urged bettors not to touch the –500 money-line or park him in parlays. Lurato believes Sadykhov owns clearer "building blocks"—sharper boxing, better grappling upside, and more overall ceiling—yet acknowledged the Longo/Weidman product often fights up or down to his opponent and lets underdogs linger. He expects Sadykhov’s pocket work to overwhelm Motta if the favorite shows his A-game, forecasting either a late finish or clean 30-27, but says the current price adds zero value and fails to compensate for Sadykhov’s tendency to cede exchanges. His advice: pick Sadykhov straight in staff pools, skip the ML in real bets, and only consider inside-the-distance props if you must have action.

Dan Tom fired one unit on Nikolas Motta at +350, arguing the market is punishing Motta for a pair of high-profile knockout losses without accounting for his steady improvements since moving his camps to Xtreme Couture and Bangtao Muay Thai. Tom noted Motta’s wrestling defense and pacing have tightened each outing, and his heavy leg-kick game specifically targets a glaring hole in Nazim Sadykhov’s boxing-centric southpaw stance. Meanwhile Sadykhov chronically fights on thin margins—he was behind on the cards versus Evan Elder until a doctor-stoppage cut, lost dominant positions to Terrance McKinney before McKinney gassed, and needed a fortunate 10-8 to draw with Slava Borshchev. Tom conceded Sadykhov is the rightful favorite but called the –500 price absurd given those sweat-inducing performances and Sadykhov’s 0.0% takedown success in the UFC. With Motta’s money left hand responsible for all five of Sadykhov’s career knockdowns suffered against southpaws, Tom views the dog as live for an upset KO and insists the line should be closer to +200.

Kunath is laying the juice on Nazim Sadykhov by decision despite calling the −470 moneyline ‘absurd.’ He reviewed Sadykhov’s tape: lost Round 1 to Evan Elder before that cut, was rocked by Terrance McKinney until T-Rex gassed, fence-grab aided a position reversal, scraped a draw with Vyacheslav Borshchev, and benefited from a bizarre Ishmael Bonfim defensive mistake. Still, Motta’s liabilities—KO loss to Jim Miller, ground control ceded to Trey Ogden, and historically low output—trump Sadykhov’s flaws. Kunath expects a crowd-boosted Azerbaijan scorecard where Sadykhov’s forward pressure and marginally higher volume steal 29-28s in a back-and-forth brawl. Betting angle: Sadykhov DEC at plus money instead of swallowing the huge straight line.

Although the price is a steep –470, Kunath still favors Nazim Sadykhov to out-work Nikolas Motta over 15 minutes. He admitted Sadykhov’s résumé is shaky—losing early to Evan Elder before a cut stoppage, nearly finished by Terrance McKinney, fighting to a draw with Slava Borshchev—but Motta’s defensive grappling lapses (controlled by Trey Ogden) and shaky chin (KO’d by Jim Miller) make the Brazilian unreliable. Kunath expects Motta to land the bigger single shots, yet Sadykhov’s volume, fence-grabbing clinch savvy and the Azerbaijan crowd’s cheers should influence close scorecards. He advises against laying the huge moneyline but likes decision props or Sadykhov as a parlay piece, projecting 29-28s across the board.

Jeff Fox echoed the Sadykhov side, stressing that the New Yorker owns the superior wrestling while also packing enough horsepower on the feet to exploit Motta’s kill-or-be-killed style. Motta “can knock you out, but the chin may not hold up,” Fox warned, noting a string of knockout defeats. Because Sadykhov can crack and immediately change levels when counters are flying back, Fox believes Motta will either get slept standing or dragged into deep water where his gas tank and defense crumble.

Daniel Vreeland targeted Nazim Sadykhov as a justified big favorite because Nikolas Motta’s durability is a glaring red flag. Motta has been knocked out four times – including by Jim Miller – and was getting dominated by Trey Ogden before a premature stoppage was overturned to a no-contest. Sadykhov carries real pop in his hands and can fall back on solid clinch and takedown work if he needs a safety valve. Vreeland also praised Sadykhov’s toughness after he absorbed two rounds of punishment from Evan Elder yet rallied to slice Elder open for the stoppage. He expects Sadykhov’s power or ground-and-pound to find Motta’s suspect chin early.

Millz Young is all-in on Nazim Sadykhov inside the distance, predicting a first-round knockout. The "Black Wolf" owns explosive combinations, finishing ability on both the mat and feet, and has navigated adversity in past bouts without gassing. Nicholas Motta throws a clean left hand but holds his guard low and visibly reacts when tagged, something Millz believes Sadykhov will exploit in front of a partisan Baku crowd.