Tyler Sullivan laid out why he is laying the 8.5 points with New England. The Patriots are riding an eight-game winning streak, and quarterback Drake Maye is playing at an MVP level, pacing the league in completion rate (71.9%) and passing yards (2,836). Sullivan believes that efficiency will be magnified against a Bengals defense surrendering 33.4 points per game — not only the worst mark in 2025 but the worst any team has allowed since the 1966 Giants. He does not see a realistic path for Cincinnati to keep Maye in check for four quarters, so he expects the Patriots to win by multiple scores.

Daniel Vreeland likes Geno Stone over 6.5 tackles and assists at -110. He anticipates a Burrow-Maye shootout that should keep Cincinnati’s secondary busy. Stone has racked up 25 total stops across his last three outings (8.3 per game), well above Sunday’s line. With New England’s pass rate climbing as Drake Maye settles in, Vreeland expects another full snap load for Stone and plenty of cleanup opportunities on underneath routes.