Will Hill took Patriots +2.5 in the so-called Tom Brady Bowl. He noted Baker Mayfield’s early MVP buzz has fizzled as Tampa’s offense has regressed to 18.4 points per game over the last month. With both defenses ranking top-10 in EPA, Hill calls the game a coin flip and wants the field goal minus the hook in his pocket.

Tafur laid 2.5 with Tampa Bay, fading a New England team everyone 'is on again' even after failing to cover last week. He called the Buccaneers defense underrated and praised a well-rested Baker Mayfield. With the spread dipping below a field goal, Tafur made Tampa one of his best bets.

Dan Parr leaned on Drake Maye’s record-tying run—200+ yards and a 100+ passer rating in eight straight games—to back New England as +124 underdogs. Despite inconsistent pass protection, Maye has piloted a six-game win streak while the Patriots’ defense still has not allowed a RB to top 50 yards. Parr doubts an injury-plagued Buccaneers roster can match Maye’s efficiency, framing the rookie as a value DFS QB and the Pats as live dogs on the moneyline.

Tafur grabbed Tampa Bay –2.5, fading a New England team that failed to cover last week yet still pulled public money. He likes a "fresh" Baker Mayfield coming off extra rest and called Todd Bowles’ unit one of the league’s most underrated defenses, a matchup he expects to slow Drake Maye’s budding MVP narrative. With Tampa’s pass rush poised to stress New England’s shaky line, Tafur views the shortened number as a buy.

Mario Puig took the Patriots +2.5 in Tampa, pointing to the Buccaneers’ lingering injury mess. He highlighted that both starting wideouts have been limited in practice and the right side of the offensive line remains in flux, issues that already hampered the Bucs before their Week 9 bye. Puig allowed that New England could suffer a post-upset letdown but still rated the healthier roster and cleaner coaching situation as worth the points. He expects Bill Belichick to hammer Tampa’s wounded flank with pressure looks and a heavy ground attack, keeping the game inside a field goal either way.

Ross Kelly relayed SportsLine's projection that Tampa Bay covers the -2.5 at home against New England. He highlighted Tampa's Week 9 bye versus New England playing on Sunday, noting the Patriots are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games with a rest disadvantage and 3-9-1 ATS against NFC opponents since 2023. Kelly added that the Patriots rank dead last in red-zone defense while quarterback Drake Maye has totaled three fumbles and two interceptions over his past two starts. Tampa owns a +7 turnover differential, and the model forecasts the Bucs winning that battle and recording twice as many sacks. Those factors push Tampa to cover in well over half of the 10,000 simulations.

Sascha Paruk said the in-house model is backing New England +2.5 and reminded readers that the A.I. has absolutely crushed Patriots sides this season, cashing eight of nine ATS calls involving Bill Belichick’s club. While the system’s overall NFL record sits at a bleak 60-74, its Pats read has been money, whereas Tampa Bay sits at just 5-3 against the number in those same model picks. Paruk framed the wager as the clearest spot to lean on the data because it is the one team the algorithm consistently understands.