Will Hill is fading New Orleans again with Saints team total Under 17. The bet cashed last week when they managed only 10 points versus the Rams, and now the offense loses its best field-stretching threat after dealing Rashid Shaheed to Seattle. Carolina’s defense ranks 7th in red-zone efficiency allowed, and Hill sees no reason to expect a breakout from Derek Carr’s 28th-ranked scoring unit.

Despite New Orleans averaging just 287.1 yards per game—its worst nine-game start since 1998—Tafur grabbed the 5.5 points because Carolina has failed to cover in 10 straight games as a favorite and lost every one outright over that four-year span. He noted the Saints’ solid run defense and Carolina’s minimal pass rush, arguing QB Tyler Shough should stay clean enough for New Orleans to cash the ticket.

Brooke Cersosimo advised fantasy managers to keep riding Rico Dowdle’s hot hand. In three starts the Panthers runner is averaging 173 rushing yards and 204.7 scrimmage yards, fueling a 3-0 record. He now draws a Saints defense surrendering the sixth-most rushing yards to backs. With Bryce Young only asked to make "timely plays" and New Orleans shipping out target leader Rashid Shaheed, Cersosimo expects another feature-back workload that cements Dowdle as an RB1 and a chalk DFS option while supporting Carolina ‑5.5 wagers.

Eric Moody identified Rico Dowdle as a high-ceiling start. Dowdle averages 26.2 fantasy points in games with 18+ touches and now faces a Saints front allowing 129.4 rushing yards per contest. Carolina’s line ranks 12th in run-block win rate (71.9%), and New Orleans’ pass rush is 31st in pressure rate, pointing to a ground-centric script. Moody expects another 18-20 carries, making Dowdle an upside RB2/FLEX and a strong value in DFS tournaments.

Anthony Dabbundo took New Orleans +5.5 (–110), noting Tyler Shough looked competent in his debut despite an elite Rams pass rush and a nonexistent Saints run game. Carolina ranks dead last in pressure rate, so Shough should enjoy a much cleaner pocket. Dabbundo still sees the Panthers offense as inconsistent and overly reliant on explosive runs for points, calling their recent winning stretch a classic sell-high after the MeowMix podcast returned from hiatus. With the underlying team strength gap nowhere near five-plus points, he expects the Saints to keep the matchup within a field goal or better.

MacMillan branded Carolina’s winning record a mirage, citing bottom-quarter rankings in Net Yards per Play (-0.6, 24th), DVOA (25th) and EPA per play (23rd). He likes New Orleans catching +5.5 because rookie QB Tyler Shough looked competent in his debut and the Saints sit only one slot behind Carolina in Net YPP. He bet Saints +5.5 at ‑110 (BetMGM).