Nick Hennion laid the points with New England at -11.5, calling it Patriots-or-nothing despite the short week. He pointed to Bill O’Brien’s offense ranking 3rd in pass-offense DVOA while the Jets sit 31st in pass-defense DVOA, noting that New York has already surrendered 30+ points to both top-13 passing attacks they have faced (Dallas and Buffalo) and lost those games by 15 and 20. The Patriots have covered six of their last seven overall and come in on a seven-game outright winning streak. On the injury front, Hennion highlighted the absence of Sauce Gardner and nickel Michael Carter as crippling for a secondary that just allowed only 54 passing yards from Justin Fields yet still gave up 169 total yards to Cleveland. He also flagged New England’s 4th-ranked rush defense as a strength-on-strength matchup against New York’s 12th-ranked ground game, leaving the Jets with no clear offensive path. The only pause, he admitted, is New England’s travel turnaround plus the number sitting above key spread thresholds, but he still graded Patriots -11.5 at -110 as the clear side for TNF.

Matt Johnson called the matchup a defensive mismatch, projecting New England to roll 28-13. He pointed out that the Patriots are allowing an NFL-low 79.2 rushing yards per game and just 3.8 yards per carry, a direct problem for a Jets offense that prefers to lean on the ground game. Johnson added that top New York pass-catcher Garrett Wilson is nursing a knee injury, further capping the Jets’ ceiling, while their secondary has struggled against deep passes—an area where New England has found success during its seven-game winning streak. Johnson’s takeaway: lay the ‑10.5 with the Patriots because their defensive strengths align perfectly with New York’s offensive weaknesses.

Bill Speros recommended grabbing the Jets +10.5, forecasting a 17-10 Patriots win that lands well inside the number. Speros highlighted the Jets’ 5-4 record against the spread despite being 2-7 straight-up, crediting Gang Green for rewarding bold backers even after trading away veterans at the deadline. He also flagged a classic let-down spot for New England: a short week following a physical road win in Tampa where Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs and TreVeyon Henderson powered the Patriots’ seventh straight victory. With New England likely content to escape with any win before the mini-bye, Speros sees value in the underdog Jets covering the inflated spread.

Jeremy Cluff predicted a 30-17 New England victory, a 13-point margin that comfortably clears the current ‑10.5 spread. Cluff acknowledged the Jets have strung together two straight wins after an 0-7 start but stressed that New York’s offense still lacks the firepower to hang with an 8-2 Patriots squad riding a seven-game winning streak. His bottom-line advice for bettors is to lay the points with the Patriots on Thursday Night Football.

Iain MacMillan laid the 11.5 points with New England on Thursday night, arguing the matchup is a nightmare for a Jets attack that is last in passing by a whopping 19-yard gap to the next-worst team. New England’s run defense has not yielded a single 54-yard rusher all season and sits top-10 in both opponent rush EPA and rush success rate. The only soft spot is a secondary giving up 6.9 yards per pass (26th), yet New York’s inability to throw means it can’t exploit that weakness. With Bill Belichick’s front poised to erase Breece Hall and force Zach Wilson into obvious passing downs, MacMillan sees little path for the Jets to keep pace and is comfortable laying double digits.