Kenny G said the full-game under 8.5 is “pretty good value” despite the Nationals owning MLB’s worst bullpen ERA (5.82). He trusts starter performance and park splits to outweigh late-inning risk: Senga’s ghost fork has opponents hitting .192, and Lord has yielded only five runs in his last 28 frames. Washington’s offense ranks 20th in runs and 19th in batting average, while New York sits just 14th and has struggled away from Citi Field (25-34 road record). Both clubs have been consistent under tickets—Mets 31-25-3, Nationals 32-28-2. Kenny expects a 4-3 type finish and would play the under down to 8.

Kenny G recommended the No-Run First Inning prop between the Mets and Nationals, calling it the safest way to attack the matchup. Kodai Senga owns a 2.35 ERA and already blanked Washington in mid-June, while Brad Lord has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, cutting his ERA to 3.26 and pushing the Nats to a 4-1 record in that span. Both teams trend under in their respective park splits—Mets 31-25-3 to the under on the road, Nationals 32-28-2 under at home—which backs Kenny’s belief that offense will be at a premium early before the shaky Washington bullpen enters. He expects NRFI to be priced near –115 and prefers it over laying the heavy Mets moneyline.