Kenny G said St. Louis is an appealing underdog at +122 because Sonny Gray has rediscovered ace form (14 straight quality innings, one earned run) while Max Freed’s recent slump has the Yankees 1-4 in his last five. New York is dragging a 4.25 bullpen ERA and a lineup that has scored 4-1-9-6-1-5 in its last six, despite ranking fourth in runs overall. The Cardinals’ bullpen is far steadier at 3.60, and they boast a 35-27 home record versus the Yankees’ 27-32 road mark. With Gray rolling, Freed leaking, and St. Louis relief trusted more than New York’s, Kenny believes the +122 price is too generous to pass up.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed St. Louis on the moneyline. New York has dropped eight of its last 12 overall and six of its last seven on the road, while the Cards have taken seven of nine head-to-head and five of the last six meetings at Busch. Yankee spot starter Lewis Gill has allowed 11 hits and seven earned across just 8.2 IP (7.27 ERA, 1.85 WHIP) and New York is still scrambling around multiple injuries at the plate and on the mound despite Aaron Judge returning with only one homer in eight August games. Andre Palanti was shelled last time out but surrendered just two runs over the 12 innings preceding that start. Add in the Cardinals’ healthier lineup and recent series dominance and the tout labeled St. Louis the play.

Bill Harrelson recommended the higher than 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs prop for Giancarlo Stanton against St. Louis. Stanton has cashed this number in 15 of his last 20 (75 %) and both recent meetings with the Cardinals, averaging 2.7 HRR in his last 19 road games. On the 2025 season he’s 24-for-36 (67 %) on the prop after just 52 % last year. Harrelson highlighted Andrew Palante’s 4.95 ERA and .281 BAA versus righties, while Stanton owns a .298 average off right-handers (.299 overall). With New York projected to produce far more than Thursday’s single run and Stanton likely seeing 4–5 plate appearances, Harrelson expects him to eclipse the 1.5 mark.

Kenny G leaned strongly to the Yankees at –130 in St. Louis. Luis Gil looked ‘drastically improved’ in his second start of the season, limiting Houston to two earned over 5⅓ innings, and now faces a Cardinals lineup that mustered just eight runs in three games against Colorado and ranks 24th in slugging. St. Louis counters with Andre Pallante (4.95 ERA) and is 1-4 in his last five starts. Although New York’s bullpen has struggled (4.25 ERA) and the Bombers are 27-32 on the road, Kenny thinks the combination of mound edge, St. Louis’ faltering offense, and the Cardinals’ fading playoff hopes makes the Yankees fairly priced at –130 and a side he ‘definitely leans toward’.

Lindquist wants to bet Luis Gil over 2.5 walks at plus-money. Gil issued four free passes to Miami in his season debut and, while trimming it to two against Houston (91 pitches in 5.1 IP), still showed the same scatter-shot command that has plagued him throughout the minors. St. Louis is a disciplined offense featuring Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson, hitters who rarely chase. That patience, combined with Gil’s career-long walk rate, makes the over a playable quarter-unit prop in Lindquist’s eyes.

Jordan picked Giancarlo Stanton as the lone Yankee to attack Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante. Pallante has coughed up a .387 average over his last two outings and allows .281 to right-handed bats overall. Stanton is on a heater, slashing .529 over the past week, and Outlier still prints a 57 % probability for 2+ hits/runs/RBI even without prior meetings. The tout likes Stanton in single-game parlays and total-bases ladders at Yankee Stadium’s short porch.