Rosenberg likes Yandy Diaz over 1.5 total bases at +105 and even sprinkled a 5‑to‑1 home‑run ticket. Diaz owns a .364 average (11 ABs) with a homer and three RBIs off Carlos Rodon and has been smoking the ball in his last five games (14% barrel rate, .337 wOBA, .476 SLG). Against lefties he has hits in 4 of his last 5 contests and has cleared 1.5 bases in 2 of his last 3. At home he’s done it 3 of 5. Rodon is the giveaway: a 5.43 FIP, 42% fly‑ball rate, and a massive 25% HR/FB mark. With the Yankee southpaw living up in the zone, Rosenberg expects Diaz’s pull‑side power to show up again.

Bettor Mark pounded the table for Ben Rice OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at even money on BetMGM. He pointed out the rookie has cleared this number in five of his last seven games and is coming off a 4‑for‑6, 2‑RBI night against Tampa. Rice owns a .412 OBP since being promoted and draws Zach Rasmussen, whose .354 xwOBA to left‑handed bats is bottom‑15 among qualified starters. Mark expects New York’s offense, which erupted for six runs Thursday, to stay hot in cozy Yankee Stadium and placed Rice atop his prop card because he hits second and rarely gets pinched for defense, giving him a full plate of plate appearances.

Chris Welsh cautioned managers not to overreact to Ryan Pepiot’s first four outings. Welsh said anyone cutting Pepiot now will "end up regretting it" because the right‑hander is still on track for a quality season. Yes, the Trop can be a tricky park and there may be match‑ups to stream him out of, but Welsh noted Pepiot’s stuff and role remain unchanged: he is stretched out as a true starter, owns a fastball that sits mid‑90s with plus carry, and the Rays have already let him work deep enough to qualify for wins in three of four turns. Welsh likened the situation to Christian Walker last week—panic cuts will age poorly once the pitcher settles in—so he advised rostering Pepiot in every format rather than chasing volatile streamers on waivers.

Reichel isolated a first‑five innings bet on Tampa Bay, citing a glaring mound edge: Drew Rasmussen has a 0.60 ERA through three turns (five shutout frames every time) while Carlos Rodon has been tagged for 4+ earned in three straight, surrendering a homer in every outing. The Yankees remain extremely home‑run dependent—if the ball stays in the yard they struggle to string hits—so Rasmussen’s high ground‑ball rate (56%) profiles well. By focusing on the first five, bettors avoid the often‑taxed Rays bullpen and the Yankees’ late‑inning leverage arms. With the market dealing –110 both ways, Reichel believes Tampa should be a clear favorite for the opening half‑game and expects the Rays to be leading after five due to Rasmussen’s consistency and Rodon’s ongoing command woes.

Reichel isolated a first‑five innings bet on Tampa Bay, citing a glaring mound edge: Drew Rasmussen has a 0.60 ERA through three turns (five shutout frames every time) while Carlos Rodon has been tagged for 4+ earned in three straight, surrendering a homer in every outing. The Yankees remain extremely home‑run dependent—if the ball stays in the yard they struggle to string hits—so Rasmussen’s high ground‑ball rate (56%) profiles well. By focusing on the first five, bettors avoid the often‑taxed Rays bullpen and the Yankees’ late‑inning leverage arms. With the market dealing –110 both ways, Reichel believes Tampa should be a clear favorite for the opening half‑game and expects the Rays to be leading after five due to Rasmussen’s consistency and Rodon’s ongoing command woes.

Reichel isolated a first‑five innings bet on Tampa Bay, citing a glaring mound edge: Drew Rasmussen has a 0.60 ERA through three turns (five shutout frames every time) while Carlos Rodon has been tagged for 4+ earned in three straight, surrendering a homer in every outing. The Yankees remain extremely home‑run dependent—if the ball stays in the yard they struggle to string hits—so Rasmussen’s high ground‑ball rate (56%) profiles well. By focusing on the first five, bettors avoid the often‑taxed Rays bullpen and the Yankees’ late‑inning leverage arms. With the market dealing –110 both ways, Reichel believes Tampa should be a clear favorite for the opening half‑game and expects the Rays to be leading after five due to Rasmussen’s consistency and Rodon’s ongoing command woes.

Despite Tampa Bay games going over the total in six of the last 10, Data Skrive projected only nine combined runs (Yankees 5, Rays 4) and labeled Under 8.5 as the preferred play. The Yankees have averaged just 3.7 runs per game across their last 10 and rank in the bottom third of MLB in that span, while both bullpens have kept ERAs near 4.00. Tampa Bay’s strike‑throwing staff (9.0 K/9) pairs with New York’s swing‑and‑miss arms (10.3 K/9) to suppress late‑inning scoring. With weather at pitcher‑friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field and both clubs’ starters likely to work deep, the model assigns more than 55% probability to a game that finishes with eight runs or fewer.

Data Skrive projected a 5–4 Yankees victory even though Tampa Bay is a –110 money‑line favorite. Their model notes that the Rays have won only 46.7% (7‑8) of the games in which they have been listed at –110 or shorter, and they are just 3‑6 as a money‑line favorite over the last 10 contests. New York, meanwhile, is 6‑4 in its last 10 overall and has split its two most recent underdog spots. The Yankees’ pitching staff owns a 3.95 ERA and 10.3 K/9 in that span compared with the Rays’ 4.10 ERA and 9.0 K/9. Offensively, Aaron Judge is on a six‑game hitting streak while slashing .485/.605/.848 over his last 10 with seven homers and 22 RBI on the season, giving the Yankees the hotter middle‑of‑the‑order bat. With New York priced at –109 and implied to win just 47.8% of the time, Data Skrive sees value in backing the Yankees on the money line.

Drew Martin said Carlos Rodon is a clear bet‑on arm in Friday’s neutral‑site game being played at the Yankees’ spring complex. Rodon punched out 10 hitters in three short spring outings and struck out 10 Rays over seven innings the last time he saw this lineup late in 2024. Martin also highlighted that New York owns MLB’s best weighted‑runs‑created‑plus and has been mashing right‑handed pitching, while Tampa sports a negative platoon split—excellent vs righties, below average vs lefties. With Drew Rasmussen on the other side and the Rays technically on the road themselves, Martin took the Bronx Bombers at a playable +100, listing Rodon to lock in the starting‑pitcher edge.

The tout wrapped up by mentioning Yandy Diaz, who owns a hit in seven of his last eight games and, per the on‑screen chart, carries a matchup batting average well over .300 against Friday’s opposing starter. Diaz therefore lands in his betting pool for simple hit props or as a value DFS bat.

B Wade targeted Yandy Diaz over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Diaz had cleared the line in five straight before a two‑game lull and now faces Carlos Rodon, whose ERA sits north of 5.00. Diaz is a career 4‑for‑11 (.364) with a homer off Rodon and is batting above .300 versus left‑handers this year. Wade stressed that New York exhausted its bullpen Thursday after pulling the starter in the second inning, meaning Rodon is likely to work deep even if he struggles. Diaz has topped this combo prop in seven of his last ten games against the Yankees, so Wade expects Tampa’s leadoff man to cash again.

Jimmy Adams grabbed the Rays at -107, labeling Carlos Rodon a must‑fade after surrendering 4, 5, and 4 earned runs in his last three outings and showing continued home‑run issues in a park that plays small. Tampa’s team batting average edges New York’s year‑to‑date, and Drew Rasmussen has been lights‑out—one total run allowed through three starts behind a cutter with heavy late movement. Adams expects Rasmussen to stay sharp while the Rays offense punishes Rodon’s mistakes.

JT expressed interest in stacking Yankees hitters today against Taj Bradley due to high salary cost for Bradley (9K). Despite the game being played at the Rays' spring training home stadium, JT sees potential for Yankees bats to produce offensively. Combining Bradley's inflated pitcher price and potential hitter advantages, Yankees represent attractive leverage plays on this DFS slate.

DraftCheat discussed Taj Bradley as a contrarian pitching option tonight, noting that in terms of talent profiling, Bradley stands out above the rest of the slate. Although up against the Yankees lineup, DC pointed out the Yankees haven't scared off DFS players lately, evidenced by recent high ownership numbers against them. Bradley has significant upside due to his stuff, even if he's not quite at Shane Baz's elite talent level. His tough matchup and expensive pricing (9k) will likely suppress his ownership, creating leverage opportunity in tournaments.

JD Bets advised taking Tampa Bay Rays on the money line today, emphasizing the hitting dominance of Rays players Jonathan Aranda and Kameron Misner versus Yankees pitcher Will Warren, who has only had limited starts this season. The Rays lineup has shown elite statistics against right-handed pitching (.432 average Aranda, .444 average Misner). JD confidently backed Tampa due to these significant matchup advantages and Warren's lack of MLB experience.

JD Bets sharply noted Kameron Misner's outstanding recent hitting splits as reason to target him on a hitting prop today against Yankees' pitcher Will Warren. Misner is currently batting .444 with two home runs and boasts a 1.2 OPS in 36 at-bats versus right-handed pitchers. JD viewed Misner as a prime spot for betting confidence today, recommending strongly to take him at least to secure one hit.

JD Bets enthusiastically recommended taking Jonathan Aranda to hit a home run today versus Yankees pitcher Will Warren. Aranda has been hitting .432 with an incredible 1.2 OPS over 44 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, significantly better than league average. JD vibrantly described Aranda's strong recent form and impressive statistical advantage versus righties as compelling reasons to confidently back a home run prop bet today.

Guy Boston identifies value betting on the Yankees against Tampa Bay, highlighting the Yankees' elite offensive success versus Taj Bradley's primary pitch mix. Bradley heavily relies on fastballs (42%) and cutters (29%), which aligns perfectly with the Yankees' strengths; they currently rank third in MLB against fastballs and first against cutters. Notable Yankees hitters such as Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe specifically excel against these pitches. Despite Bradley's strong recent outings and historical dominance at home—including impressive performances against the Yankees last season—Boston still sees the Yankees' elite pitch-specific matchups providing value at close to even odds.

Mark Zinno explained why he finds value betting on the Rays against the Yankees, underscoring Tampa Bay's ability to consistently exceed expectations despite limited resources. He praised the Rays' 'scrappy' lineup, citing players like Coco Montes and Jake Mangum, who were successful at AAA and have carried this success to MLB-level production. Zinno emphasized the consistency and strength of Tampa Bay's bullpen, a significant advantage against the Yankees. Historical context supports his stance, with the Yankees' win percentage dropping sharply from 64% in the 2000s to just 44% since 2020 versus the Rays, scoring only 3.6 runs per game while allowing 4.4. All these factors contribute to Zinno's support for backing the Rays moneyline in tonight's matchup at Steinbrenner Field.

Mark Zinno highlighted Coco Montes as an under-the-radar signing boosting the Rays' scrappy lineup. Montes led the Pacific Coast League in hitting last season with Albuquerque, but the Rockies surprisingly never promoted him to MLB. After deciding to go overseas, Montes was scooped up instead by Tampa Bay. Zinno pointed to Montes as an example of Tampa's savvy front office consistently bringing in overlooked players who find ways to produce at the Major League level. Montes' ability to consistently get on-base and generate offense from the bottom of Tampa's lineup makes him valuable for betting and DFS purposes.

Mark Zinno strongly backed the Rays moneyline bet against the Yankees, primarily pointing to Taj Bradley's dominance over New York last season (0.69 ERA, 12 strikeouts in 13 innings, and Yankees batters hitting just .116). Conversely, he criticized Yankees starter Will Warren as a weak backend starter with minimal upside. Zinno also noted Yankees market inflation based on recent team success after sweeping a weaker Royals team, despite having a weaker lineup this year. Historical struggles of the Yankees against Tampa, dating back years, were cited as additional support. Finally, despite the Rays playing in the Yankees' spring training home and being favorites, Zinno emphasized that their favorable pitching matchup and historically scrappy performances make the Rays a particularly attractive bet in this spot.

Kenny G leans towards betting on the Tampa Bay Rays at home (-116) against the Yankees, largely due to Rays' starting pitcher Taj Bradley (2-0, 3.71 ERA) impressively rebounding from a tough outing with a strong recent start against top-tier Atlanta (6 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks). Despite Tampa's recent inconsistent offense, Kenny notes decent overall rankings (10th in runs scored and 3rd in batting average). He highlighted the Yankees could experience regression after a sweep of the Royals and subsequent travel fatigue; although Yankees starter Will Warren is promising, Kenny favors Bradley's consistency and Rays' solid home field advantage early this season.

Dylan Rockford sees value backing the Rays at anything under -150 odds against the Yankees. His projections listed Tampa Bay as clear favorites due largely to pitching advantages with Taj Bradley over Yankees' starter Will Warren. Dylan underscored Bradley's superior talent level, pointing out Warren's weaknesses (allowing two-plus runs every start, high walk totals) and noted Tampa's surprising offensive potency, especially their strong .289 average against right-handed pitching this season. Furthermore, Rockford noted Tampa’s positive home record (8-6) compared to the Yankees' mediocre .500 road form, thus justifying backing Bradley early in this matchup.

Mal Bamford expects a high-scoring matchup between the Yankees and Rays. He highlighted the unique circumstance of playing at Steinbrenner Stadium—a replica of Yankee Stadium—and its recent trend towards high run totals, averaging around 10.25 runs in recent games there, including a recent 11-run game against Boston. Mal pointed to Yankee starter Will Warren's struggles (four earned runs allowed in his only road start against Pittsburgh) and clearly favored Tampa's Taj Bradley at home, where he's shown consistent strikeout upside with 7 Ks in all three starts this season. Bamford firmly emphasized the environment and pitching vulnerabilities support taking the over, anticipating the total around 9.5 runs for profitable betting.

Cash Out Sports Picks strongly endorsed betting on Tampa Bay’s moneyline due to Taj Bradley's dominance over the Yankees' lineup, allowing only one run in 13 innings last season. Yankees hitters struggled significantly in previous meetings and face additional travel fatigue, while the Rays enjoy home-field stability and an 8-5 home record. Bradley's current form and past performances heavily tilt the advantage toward Tampa Bay.

Just A Bet Outside suggests taking Jonathan Aranda at plus-money (+190 DraftKings) to record at least one RBI against right-handed pitcher Will Warren. Aranda has been outstanding against right-handers this season, batting .452 against them with all 11 of his RBIs versus right-handers. Warren has given up eight earned runs in 14 innings this year, with a .294 batting average and .529 slugging percentage allowed specifically to left-handed hitters. Aranda has recorded an RBI in six of his last ten games (10 RBIs total), presenting great value due to favorable hitting conditions and pitcher matchup.

B Wade recommended betting that Jasson Dominguez will exceed 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs, pointing directly at Dominguez's pronounced splits against right-handed pitching. Dominguez has hit this number in 50% of games overall but is batting .400 against righties compared to an abysmal .083 average against lefties. With Dominguez facing right-handed pitcher Taj Bradley, B Wade saw substantial value here, reasoning that Dominguez is consistently productive when facing right-handed opponents. He's confident due to the strength of Dominguez's splits and correlation with a strong Yankees lineup.

B Wade endorsed Aaron Judge to exceed 1.5 total bases, citing Judge's excellent early-season form. Judge has hit this prop in 12 of his 18 games (67%), including notably five straight games and seven of his last eight. Despite talk of a slump, B Wade noted Judge's solid .409 batting average this year, along with a .370 average against right-handed pitching, three homers, and 11 RBIs vs righties. Given Judge's power, B Wade emphasized he could hit the number with a single swing very easily. He liked this prop considerably due to the consistent production Judge has delivered.

Data Skrive highlighted Taj Bradley as a strong choice to exceed his strikeout prop of 6.5 against the Yankees on April 17. Bradley has posted impressive numbers in 2025 so far, averaging 7 strikeouts per game through 3 appearances, providing favorable value at odds of -106. Given Bradley's consistent performance, this bet presents an attractive opportunity against a Yankees lineup known for high strikeout totals.

Data Skrive sees good value backing the small underdog Yankees (+100) against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees, with a superior season record (11-7) compared to Tampa (8-10), project to narrowly win a high-scoring 5-4 game. Big-hitting potential at home coupled with Rays pitcher Taj Bradley (2-0, solid 3.71 ERA) and Yankees starter Will Warren (1-0, 5.14 ERA) indicate New York may capitalize on offensive home-field advantage, making their even-money line an appealing option.

Data Skrive provided insight regarding caution for bettors considering Tampa Bay on the run line, noting the Rays have a poor 3-7 record against the spread over their last 10 contests. Even as slight favorites against the Yankees (-114 on the moneyline), this negative ATS trend suggests a fading opportunity or careful consideration before placing run-line wagers involving the Rays.

Data Skrive highlighted the Yankees' struggles in games where they've been listed as underdogs this season, noting that they've lost both matchups in which they've been underdogs at odds of -105 or longer. Considering the Yankees are again underdogs (-105) versus Tampa Bay, bettors should approach betting on New York with caution and possibly consider fading them given these recent troublesome trends.

Data Skrive highlighted Yandy Diaz as a strong play against the Yankees, noting his consistent recent performance. Diaz enters the matchup riding a six-game hitting streak and batting .300 over his past 10 contests, contributing two doubles, three home runs, three walks and five RBI in that span. Given his current form, Diaz offers excellent potential for fantasy players and hit-related prop bets.

Data Skrive implied strong performance expectations for Rays starter Taj Bradley in Thursday's matchup against the Yankees. Tampa Bay enters the matchup as moneyline favorites (-114), indicating a positive script for Bradley. Given the Yankees' inconsistent recent scoring production (3.5 runs per game over their last 10 contests), Bradley faces a favorable pitching scenario for betting and DFS purposes.

Data Skrive spotlighted Aaron Judge as an exceptional target for batting props based on his elite recent performance. Judge leads the Yankees offensively with a .409 batting average, seven home runs, and 21 RBI. He is currently riding a five-game hitting streak, hitting .588 with two doubles, one home run, four walks, and one RBI in that stretch. His sustained hot form and impressive power numbers create clear value in fantasy lineups and betting scenarios.

Data Skrive identified Junior Caminero as a key Rays player to consider for home run bets given his team-leading power numbers. Caminero currently leads Tampa Bay with four home runs this season, positioning him well for home-run betting markets and DFS tournaments where home runs are disproportionately rewarded.

Data Skrive singled out Kameron Misner as a viable option for hitting-related prop bets against the Yankees. Misner carries a four-game hitting streak into the game and has collected a .412 batting average, two home runs, two walks, and four RBI over his last five games. His consistent recent production and strong underlying stats suggest favorable opportunities in batting markets and make him an appealing fantasy consideration.

According to the computer-generated pick from Data Skrive, the New York Yankees, slight underdogs at -104, are projected to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays (-115) in their upcoming matchup. The Yankees, with an 11-7 overall record against Tampa's 8-10, hold the advantage due to superior hitting. Additionally, the computer projects that the game total of 9 runs will be exceeded, suggesting that offensive conditions will be favorable to Yankees hitters.

Todd Zola advises caution with Taj Bradley for Thursday's start against the Yankees at George Steinbrenner Field, a ballpark mimicking the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. Bradley has strong strikeout numbers, fanning 14 batters over 12 home innings this year, but his concerning batted-ball distribution—allowing more fly balls than grounders—increases his vulnerability, especially given the expected hotter temperatures in Tampa that will assist balls in carrying further. Against a powerful Yankees lineup built for homer-friendly environments, Bradley's risk outweighs potential reward in this matchup.