Billy Ward said the only two wagers worth considering in this matchup are Nikita Krylov’s money-line and Bogdan Guskov by knockout. Ward trusts Krylov’s minute-winning wrestling and submission game—pointing to Volkan Oezdemir being quickly submitted by Krylov after easily tapping Guskov—to carry the favorite if he comes out shooting takedowns early. He thinks that script ends in a Round-1 finish once Krylov secures top position. However, Ward warned that Krylov has not won since March 2023, is coming off multiple injuries, and could be "washed," giving Guskov a potential cardio and durability edge in the later minutes. Guskov’s entire win equity, in Ward’s view, is landing a fight-changing bomb while Krylov is either at range or fading. Because Guskov’s KO prop is roughly +275 and his money-line is only a few cents shorter, Ward advised backing the KO instead of the dog ML and pairing it with Krylov ML if you want both sides. Live-betting opportunities are limited unless Krylov burns gas chasing several takedowns in Round 1 and still wins the frame, at which point Ward would consider flipping to Guskov in-play.

Sean Zerillo warned that Bogdan Guskov’s +200 range money line is a classic trap: the Uzbek is routinely losing every minute until he lands a nuke. Zerillo prefers two clear lanes— either pay up for Nikita Krylov’s money line (he trusts Krylov’s deeper skill set, wrestling edge, and minute-winning style despite Krylov’s recent 22-month layoff), or pivot to Guskov by KO at +275 if you insist on the underdog. Anything in between, he said, overstates Guskov’s chances to win a decision or snag a submission that has never materialized in his pre-UFC tape. In Zerillo’s view, the matchup is binary: Krylov wins everywhere unless Guskov detonates a right hand early.

Betss pointed to Krylov Round-1 submission at +425 as the sharp counter-angle. He noted Krylov’s grappling is levels above Guskov’s, and the Ukrainian has historically jumped on takedowns early when he senses an edge. Guskov was tapped in the first round by Volkan Oezdemir and still owns a ‘kill-or-be-killed’ gas-tank profile; if Krylov secures an early body-lock and drags it down, he owns seven UFC submissions and could snatch a quick rear-naked or arm-triangle before the power puncher settles in. Given Guskov’s tendency to fade if extended, Betss believes the +425 opener fairly captures Krylov’s clearest path to an upset.

Matty Betss said the market is sleeping on Bogdan Guskov by decision at 14-to-1. While he still respects Guskov’s knockout power, Betss reminded listeners that Nikita Krylov has only been finished twice in 40 pro bouts and generally wears damage well. If the Russian veteran stays upright, Guskov could simply out-box him for three rounds—especially because Krylov, coming off shoulder surgery and a two-year layoff, looked noticeably slower and hesitant against Dominick Reyes. Betss added that heavyweight brawls everyone swears “can’t go the distance” are often the ones that do, making a tiny sprinkle on the +1400 scorecard outcome an inexpensive hedge to the popular KO angle.

Matty Betss advised betting Bogdan Guskov by knockout, citing Nikita Krylov’s mileage and recent chin issues. Krylov has logged 40 pro fights, underwent shoulder surgery, sat two years, then came back and was violently KO’d by Dominick Reyes. Tape shows he still over-extends on entries—dangerous against Guskov’s counter power. Betss pegs Krylov’s ‘32’ as MMA-equivalent 38, noting the division’s shallow talent pool masks his decline. Unless Krylov wrestles immediately—something Betss doubts—Guskov’s heavy hands should find a finish, likely in Round 2 when Krylov’s output drops. With Guskov’s KO line sitting plus money and the market overrating Krylov’s name value, Betss prefers the knockout prop to any side play.

Bedtime MMA predicted Bogdan Guskov will finish Nikita Krylov in the second round. He argued Krylov is returning only three months after being “dead-cold McGregor-Aldo’d” by Dominick Reyes, so chin durability and confidence are suspect. Krylov’s trademark pressure is effective but leaves big defensive gaps; Bedtime expects him to shoot early takedowns to avoid Guskov’s counters. While acknowledging Krylov could bank control and even find a sub—Alkana and Volkan Oezdemir have done so—the tout said Guskov routinely weathers those first-round grappling storms, reverses position, and detonates once opponents tire. He envisions Guskov standing up from an early takedown, cracking Krylov with an uppercut or hook behind the ear, forcing a desperate single-leg, then pounding away until the referee steps in. Betting angle: Guskov KO/TKO prop and round-2 sprinkle.

Sniper called Krylov–Guskov a “five-star all-in fight,” pointing to the -158 under 1.5-round prop and both men’s kill-or-be-killed histories. He views Krylov as overrated without sustained wrestling; if the Ukrainian cannot ground Guskov early, he is “in a shit-ton of trouble” against the Uzbek’s power striking. Sniper plans to anchor GPP builds around Guskov, leveraging the $1,200 salary discount and projected ownership gap, but will still roster enough Krylov to cover himself if the favorite’s grappling holds up. Strategy wise, he will match or slightly exceed the field on Krylov to avoid wipe-outs, then load remaining exposure onto Guskov in hopes of a dog-owned KO that nukes chalky builds.

Monk targeted Bogdan Guskov at $7,500 as his preferred side in the week’s must-stack fight. Guskov rebounded from the Volkan Oezdemir loss by starching Zach Pauga and Ryan Spann, then submitting Billy Alencar, showcasing both power and opportunistic grappling. The matchup with Nikita Krylov features abysmal striking defense on both sides (each under 45 %), and only five combined decisions in roughly 60 pro fights. Monk emphasized that five of Krylov’s six fights since 2021 and three of Guskov’s four UFC bouts have landed on DraftKings optimal rosters, making exposure mandatory. Because Krylov is $8.7K—$350 above his career average—while Guskov sits $400 below his, Monk wants heavier dog shares, believing Guskov’s knockout equity easily 13-xes salary.

Dan Tom labeled Krylov Inside-the-Distance at –130 "playable chalk" and prefers it to parlays. He expects a violent fight no matter where it goes, stressing Krylov’s career tendency to either finish or get finished. Tom noted that both men are aggressive but Guskov’s power fades quickly when forced to defend takedowns; Krylov’s willingness to shoot means he can drag the underdog into grappling exchanges that expose Guskov’s suspect submission defense. Instead of risking –190 ML or relying on method-specific props, Tom wants the blanket ITD ticket that cashes via ground-and-pound, submission, or even a standing KO if Krylov chooses to bang early. He reminded listeners that he “always gets the worst lines,” so anyone seeing –120 or better should jump. Tom views the play as a straight, single-fight investment—no need to get "too cute and caught speeding" with multi-leg parlays when a finish is already the most probable outcome.

Michael Lurato expects Nikita Krylov to finish Bogdan Guskov once the fight hits the mat and is targeting inside-the-distance props instead of laying –190 on the money line. Lurato pointed out Guskov’s 55 % takedown-defense rate and the red flag of having been submitted by Volkan Oezdemir—"never a good sign." Krylov, meanwhile, is wired to push pace from the opening horn and owns a lethal top game: heavy hips, smothering side control, and a knack for transitioning ground-and-pound into chokes. Lurato conceded Krylov sometimes makes bone-headed strategic choices, but if he initiates wrestling with at least two minutes left in any round Guskov "won’t have an exit strategy." He is shopping for Round-1 finish or generic ITD numbers, anticipating either elbows from mount or a club-and-sub sequence once Guskov tires. The plan is to avoid straight chalk, ride Krylov’s 26 finishes in 30 wins, and possibly pair the ITD play with other plus-money props.

Kunath labeled Bogdan Guskov an "obvious click" at $7,500 because of his brutal first- or second-round KO upside. Krylov was "knocked out badly" in his last outing and carries a lot of mileage, while Guskov enters with momentum and reckless power willing to trade. Even though Kunath isn’t guaranteeing a win, he emphasized that DFS players are paying strictly for ceiling: if Guskov lands early, the cheap price tag smashes GPPs.

THE MMA GURU predicted Bogdan Guskov will starch Nikita Krylov inside the first two rounds. Guru hammered three angles: (1) Krylov was flat-lined by Dominick Reyes only a few months ago and is rushing back far too quickly, a red flag he "will never back in a bettor." (2) Krylov’s trademark wild, loopy exchanges leave his chin hanging, whereas Guskov is a patient sniper who finds the chin once he settles in. Guru pointed to Guskov walking through Ryan Spann’s bombs and then bullying him, plus forcing Billy Elekana to mentally quit after round-one success, as evidence the Uzbek can absorb heat and keep coming. (3) Guskov’s calm pocket defense and head-movement should punish Krylov’s frantic blitzes. Add in the geopolitical distractions and long layoffs that have plagued Krylov’s camp, and Guru sees multiple knockdowns before a round-one or early round-two TKO. He advised money-line shots on Guskov, Guskov ITD, and sprinkling the KO prop.

Guru’s second PrizePicks angle is Bogdan Guskov to land MORE than 15.5 significant strikes. He expects Guskov’s forward-moving power boxing and willingness to brawl to guarantee volume early, and believes the matchup forces enough exchanges that 16 connections is a very low bar.

TheWeasle forecasted a second-round knockout for Bogdan Guskov. Krylov was iced by one punch from Dominick Reyes just 3½ months ago, his first fight after a two-year layoff, and now dives straight back in for career fight No. 40. With that mileage, quick turnarounds after knockouts are recipe for disaster. Guskov is a pure finisher—82 % KO rate, 100 % of wins inside the distance—and thrives on precision pull-back counters, the same sequence Reyes used. The Uzbek’s right straight is money, and he boasts slick head movement while keeping hands low to bait swings. Krylov is the more well-rounded fighter and owns a 93 % finish rate himself, but TheWeasle doubts he commits to a wrestling-heavy plan long enough to neutralize Guskov’s power. Expect Guskov to stuff early shots, force Krylov to trade, then land a clean right hand as Krylov overextends, ending matters midway through round 2. Betting angle: Guskov KO/TKO Round 2 or Inside-the-Distance.

Gumby Vreeland advised skipping the -185 money-line and instead hammering Nikita Krylov by submission at +210. He reiterated that every competent wrestler who has faced Bogdan Guskov has dominated him on the mat—Volkan Oezdemir choked him in under a round, and Billy Alcoleno rode his back for nearly four minutes regionally. Krylov, meanwhile, owns 12 career submissions and has finished four of his last five wins this way, including rear-nakeds of Ryan Spann and Oezdemir. Vreeland expects Krylov to drag Guskov down early behind his 1.86 takedowns per round, secure mount or back control, and hunt for the choke. Given both the stylistic mismatch and Krylov’s 75 % finish rate in victories, Vreeland called the +210 submission line “the most mis-priced prop on the card.”

Jeff Fox backed Nikita Krylov, noting that he still has no firm read on how good Bogdan Guskov actually is. Fox trusts Krylov’s proven edge on the mat—12 career submissions and far better UFC-level grappling—and believes the Ukrainian can hold his own on the feet while exploiting Guskov’s defensive holes once the fight hits the canvas. For Fox, the matchup offers fewer unknowns on the Krylov side, making him the preferred betting option at current odds.

Daniel Vreeland said Nikita Krylov is a clear betting side at roughly -185 because Guskov’s defensive grappling has been exposed every time he has faced a competent wrestler. Vreeland reminded listeners that Billy Alcoleno dominated Guskov’s back on the regional scene and Volkan Oezdemir took him down and choked him in under a round during his UFC debut. By contrast, Krylov landed seven takedowns on Oezdemir, dragged Ryan Spann to the mat twice and tapped him, and generally refuses to let a submission slip once it is locked in. Vreeland acknowledged Krylov’s KO loss to Dominick Reyes but argued the recent resurgence of Reyes makes that result less damning. He expects Krylov’s wrestling volume and top-pressure to overwhelm Guskov, leading to either a late submission or lopsided decision—making Krylov a solid money-line play and a DFS target for grappling points.